Over-Under: General Election 2006

[scrivener]

The election is a few days away, so let's have a little fun predicting the results. For each proposition, pick "over" or "under" the number I offer. We'll post results sometime late Tuesday or sometime Wednesday.

Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.


Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.


U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.


U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 58%.


U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.


State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10 (currently, there are 10 Republican and 41 Democrats with 2 Republicans running unopposed).


State House of Representatives.
Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 5 (note that some incumbents lost in the primary election; this number is for the incumbents still in the running).


State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 13%.


State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.


State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5.


County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Submit your predictions before the first printouts!

(sorry, neighbor-island peeps. if you would like to post some over/under lines for your own county charters, please do!)

[Pua'i Mana'o]

welll....these numbers are quite high, so I'm going to bid $1, Bob. And that's my final answer.

[manoasurfer123]

1. Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 38%.

2. Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 73%.

3. U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 65%.

4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 54%.

5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 10%.

6. State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10

7. State House of Representatives.
Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 2
8. State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 8%.

9. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.

10. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): ?.

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: ?.

[scrivener]

Okay, the idea of the over-under is just to determine if the actual number will be over or under the number I offer. In that first question, for example, if you think voter turnout will be greater than 42%, you say "Over." If not, you say, "Under."

[manoasurfer123]

For once I get concise... and then I find out all da buggah want is over unders:rolleyes:

[pzarquon]

Voter turnout: 42% - Over.
Governor: Percent cast for Lingle: 67% - Under.
U.S. Senate: Percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75% - Under.
U.S. House, 2nd District: Percent cast for Hirono: 58% - Over.
U.S. House, 1st District: Percent cast for Hough: 20% - Under.
State House: Number of Republican seats: 10 - Under.
State House of Representatives: Incumbents losing: 5 - Under.
State Board of Education: Percent cast for DeRego: 13% - Under!
State Constitution: Number that will pass: 2.5 - Under.
State Constitution: Agree with Perry and Price: 3.5 - Under.
County of Honolulu Charter: Number that will pass: 5 - Under.

[Konaguy]

Voter turnout.Under
Governor. Over
U.S. Senate. Under
U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District. Over
U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District. Under
State House of Representatives. Over
State House of Representatives. Over
State House of Representatives. Over
State Board of Education. Under
State Constitution. Under
State Constitution. Under

[scrivener]

Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.
UNDER

Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.
UNDER

U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.
OVER

U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 58%.
OVER

U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.
UNDER

State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10 (currently, there are 10 Republican and 41 Democrats with 2 Republicans running unopposed).
UNDER

State House of Representatives.
Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 5 (note that some incumbents lost in the primary election; this number is for the incumbents still in the running).
OVER

State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 13%.
UNDER

State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.
UNDER

State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5.
OVER

County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.
UNDER

This was pretty tough; I set the line right where I think the outcome should be in most cases, so picking over or under felt weird.

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Scrivener, how did you come up with those values for each race? I am curious.

[scrivener]

Most of it was gut feeling; there was a little bit of research on some of them, but not very much. 42% if the voter turnout for the primary, so for that one I'm just asking if the turnout will be greater or smaller for the general.

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Most of it was gut feeling...

bwah! O, such an economist!

[ttamasese]

Randy Iwase
118,000 - Votes from Primary
10,000 - Votes from William Aila supporters (out of 40,000)
43,000 - Votes from HGEA
13,000 - Votes from HSTA
12,000 - Votes from Local 5
+ 5,000 - Votes from Akaka and Inouye supporters
_______
201,000 votes


Linda Lingle
1998 vs. Cayetano - 199,000 votes - Spent $2,100,000 - Lots of Buzz
2002 vs. Hirono - 197,000 votes - Spent $5,400,000 - Buzz
2006 vs. Iwase - 196,500 votes - Spent $5,800,000 - No Buzz, Republican Party unpopular, Lingle loves Bush hehe.

My prediction for Hawaii 2006 Gubernatorial Election:
Iwase - 201,000 - 50%
Lingle - 196,500 - 49%
Other/Blank - 1%

Randy Iwase wins.

[DavidThi808]

I don't know about the rest but I predect Akaka/Thielen will be just a couple of points different.

[mel]

Hell as long as this is being posted for fun, I might as well throw in my predictions. I am by far no expert in predicting this kind of stuff, but here goes:

1. Voter turnout. Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 45%.

2. Governor. Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 71% for the Governor or hopefully anything over 51%.

3. U.S. Senate. Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 70%.

4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: a hopeful 49%.

5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: I'm probably one of the 22%.

6. State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: A hopeful 12.

7. State Senate. (I am slightly changing this because I think there is supposed to be a State Senate choice here, if not don't count my response).
Of 25 incumbents in office (12 or 13 seats were up this year), number who will lose their seats: 2 (no incumbents in the Senate lost in the primary, 1 retired, 1 [Hogue] ran for higher office; others who ran in Congress #2 did not have to resign their seats). I think Keoki Leong will win the race for Bob Hogue's seat and possibly Mike Gabbard winning the seat vacated by retiring Senator Brian Kanno. 2 Republicans + 1 Hemmings + 3 already elected = an optimistic 6 in the Senate. I could be wrong by -2. In the end Democrats will still hold majority. The organization of the Senate will be interesting to watch in the days after tomorrow.


8. State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 20%.

9. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2 I don't get the 2.5. How can half an amendment pass?

10. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5. I'm going with NO NO NO YES YES.

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Actually there are 12 of them. All I hope is that the ones I voted NO don't pass.

[scrivener]

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Actually there are 12 of them. All I hope is that the ones I voted NO don't pass.
There are 12 things to vote on, but one of them is really a "if the one above passes, which would you prefer?" situation. It won't really pass or not pass all by itself.

[mel]

There are 12 things to vote on, but one of them is really a "if the one above passes, which would you prefer?" situation. It won't really pass or not pass all by itself.

Well I am going by how they were presented on the ballot and in the handouts made available by the county and the office of elections. There were 11 choices in the front of the ballot and 1 on the back. But yes, #2 is conditional on whether #1 passes.

[GeckoGeek]

Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.Under. No real hot races.



Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.Slightly over. While the Democrats have wrapped themselves in the Iraq war protest, I think Iwase has shot himself in the foot.


U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.Under. He's weak



U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.Probably under, but I'd like to rattle Neil "they should have sounded the sirens" Abercrombie.



State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.State has 11/12. I predict the P&P picks: 9 will pass.




County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.Not sure as I understand the question. I predict two will pass.

[scrivener]

Okay. Here we go.

Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.
Result: I do not have the numbers in front of me, but it's definitely over.


Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.
With 63.876% of votes cast for either candidate, the result is under.


U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.
Akaka's 209,939 votes of a total 342,178 gives him 61% of votes, so the result is under.


U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 58%.
Hirono scored 61% of the votes. Over.


U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.
Hough earned 49,723, or 30.63% of the vote. Over.


State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10 (currently, there are 10 Republican and 41 Democrats with 2 Republicans running unopposed).
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think I remember reading that the Republicans lost 2 or 3 seats, giving us a result of under.


State House of Representatives.
Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 5 (note that some incumbents lost in the primary election; this number is for the incumbents still in the running).
Three incumbents lost their seats in the general: Anne Stevens, District 23; Mark Moses, District 40; and Michael Kahikina, District 44. The result is under.


State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 13%.
DeRego got an appalling 45,345 votes from people who either don't read the news or who don't care about questionable legal situations, and that represented 24.68% of the vote: over (like his political career, hopefully).


State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.
4 of the 5 passed: over.


State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5.
I got this one wrong: Perry and Price recommended no, no, no, yes, yes. The electorate picked yes, yes, no, yes, yes, meaning that 3 results agreed with Perry and Price's picks. Result: under.


County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.
8 of 11 passed, giving us a result of over.


Here's how we did:
manoa: 2
pz: 7
konaguy: 4
scrivener: 3
davidthi808: 0
mel: 4
geckogeek: 1

nice job, pz. I knew I was going to either kick everyone's butt or lose big-time, since I set the line and this time was shooting to get it close to right-on. Gr!

4 people besides me submitted picks in all 11 categories, making 44 bets against the house. These 4 combined for 17 correct, meaning the house wins 27 and loses 17. If you add my picks, it's 20 of a possible 55. I should go into the bookmaking business.

[scrivener]

Okay, the idea of the over-under is just to determine if the actual number will be over or under the number I offer. In that first question, for example, if you think voter turnout will be greater than 42%, you say "Over." If not, you say, "Under."

9. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2 I don't get the 2.5. How can half an amendment pass?

Hi Mel. Sorry, I didn't see your question until just now. The number I set was 2.5, because I thought 2 or 3 would pass, and I didn't want there to be a push. You see, if I had set the line at 2 and the result had been exactly 2, nobody would have been right, because people picking "under" would be wrong and people picking "over" would be wrong. This would have been great if I were actually taking bets, because when everyone loses, the house wins! However, what I was shooting for was just to let people decide if I was over with my predictions or under. That's the beauty of the over/under: You don't have to pick the exact result; you just have to decide if the number is too high or too low.

[pzarquon]

nice job, pz... I should go into the bookmaking business.And I guess I should try my luck as a political consultant. (Ow! I was kidding, honey!)

This was fun, Scriv. Thanks.