Hurricane Flossie

[Pomai]

Flossie's current position...

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1390/1083730969_7ed2dfa54a_o.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1083730969&size=o)

The weather in Honolulu this morning has that "calm before the storm" aura to it (almost ZERO wind), with cloud forms that appear to be distant spin-off from Flossie.

I'll get some pics of surf impact at China Walls on Tuesday.

[mel]

This morning Hurricane Flossie has been upgraded to a Category 4 storm:

http://starbulletin.com/breaking/breaking.php?id=6087

Maximum sustained winds @ 132 mph.

Hopefully this thing will weaken in the next few days and stay south.

[tutusue]

This morning Hurricane Flossie has been upgraded to a Category 4 storm[...]
Whether Flossie hits us or not, I'm now wondering whether I'm safer in a 2nd floor, oceanfront condo where evacuation means only 1 flight of stairs if the electricity goes out...or...a condo on the 19th floor with wall to wall picture windows that face north where evacuation means 18 flights of stairs. If no evacuation, then one risks getting trapped inside (assuming one isn't outside!) with no electricity for an undetermined amount of time.

If Flossie does change course and hit us, the time frame mentioned in the link is the exact time frame I've arranged to stay in my daughter's 36th floor condo that faces the ocean as Monday is the day my bathtub gets refinished and I can't use it for 3 days!!!

Decisions...decisions...

[hifotog]

Updated via hawaii weather edu...as of 1153am, radar shows hurricane making very slight but significant turn to the northwest or slight mauka ewabound...I dont think this hurricane is to be taken lightly...despite others in the recent past...you can clik the pix and you can see the motion of it on http://weather.hawaii.edu

Despite its name, it not be taken so humorously...cuz it may pack a punch IF it decides to NAIL Hawaii...

[Karen]

Thank you for the university map link! Do you or anyone have a link to the most recent measurements of Sea Surface Temps? the ones I found last years are so vague, just colored areas that represent temps. I mean I am asking for a list of the temps around us, sorry, as I do see the other map on that page should be representative of what I am asking for. then again maybe not, but there are cooler and warmer areas, per the color. help! LOL

[mel]

Here's that forecast from 11 AM from the NOAA:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2

Next forecast is at 5:PM HST.

[glossyp]

Not encouraging is this quote from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center regarding the Flossie forecast "LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY."
I'm concerned that they offer no prognostic reasoning for the forecast.

[GeckoGeek]

Whether Flossie hits us or not, I'm now wondering whether I'm safer in a 2nd floor, oceanfront condo where evacuation means only 1 flight of stairs if the electricity goes out

I think you'd want to be somewhere where you don't have to evacuate. I don't think I'd like to be ocean front. I'd be concerned the storm surge will rip though the bottom floors. Maybe your building can take it, maybe not. :eek: Even if it stays standing, all that damage on the bottom floor probably means a long time before utilities can be restored.

With the 19th floor, you can ride out the storm and see what your options are.

[tutusue]

I think you'd want to be somewhere where you don't have to evacuate. I don't think I'd like to be ocean front. I'd be concerned the storm surge will rip though the bottom floors. Maybe your building can take it, maybe not. :eek: Even if it stays standing, all that damage on the bottom floor probably means a long time before utilities can be restored.

With the 19th floor, you can ride out the storm and see what your options are.
Thanks, GG. That's helpful.

My Makaha condo building was the hardest hit building on Oahu during Iniki. It ceased being oceanfront and became an island onto itself!!! My 2nd floor unit was only a half floor above the water for a short while. The homes directly across Farrington Hwy. were also damaged by the surge. Yes, the buildings in my complex withstood the storm. And, yes, every ground floor unit was wiped out. The surge blew out all the ocean facing, sliding glass door walls on that floor, raced thru the units and blew out the bedroom windows at the rear of each unit, the water continuing across the property and across the highway. When it retreated, bathtubs, major appliances and furniture were sucked out and deposited on the beach. I think I got electricity back within 4-5 days or so. Can't remember exactly. I was on the mainland at the time and got an emergency flight back the next day.

I don't mind riding out the storm on the 19th or 36th floor. My biggest concern is being trapped by no electricity. There's always the fire exit, I s'pose!

[koloagirl]

Aloha from Kaua'i!

Well, I'm just like everyone else here -- watching the "updates" on the storm tracking and hearing from my hubby that our Costco is starting to feel the effects of the possibility of anything major hitting us -- unlike back in '92 when we didn't have a Costco!

I wonder too if my 2-story condo unit that was built back in the 1970's (and which surprisingly came through Iniki quite well!) will withstand another one!

This is what you get when you have a day to watch TV and putz around on the computer -- too much info on a might-be storm!

Malama Pono,

[Pomai]

NOAA's current GOES image (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/vis-l.jpg) shows Flossie steering further north-west towards that 15th latitude line, which is worth some concern. There's a prominent "eye", so she's really turnin' n' burnin'.

Current conditions in Waikiki are completely covered overcast with a slight breeze. Surf is about 2-3 feet, with some rather nice right pitches. There were also some rain squalls about a mile off-shore that came and went.

Back to you Joe.

[tutusue]

[...]Back to you Joe.
Roving weather reporter, tutusue, here. Joe's indisposed at the moment!

Manoa Valley was socked in most of the time that I was at home today. Spent some time in Kakaako, Kahala and Moiliili. Saw a few drizzles but not enough to turn on the windshield wipers but for one, quick, wipe. It currently looks like it might be raining towards downtown. This can't be Flossie related...can it? :confused: As a roving weather reporter you'd think I'd know what the h3!! I was talking about!

Where's Guy when I need him?!!!

[LikaNui]

This can't be Flossie related...can it? :confused: Where's Guy when I need him?!!! I'm a guy, so I'll answer that one, Tutu. It's too early to feel any effects of Flossie, even from its outer fringes. Ditto for Sunday. Monday, maybe but probably not. Tuesday, probably yes.
It's too soon to be more than just somewhat concerned. By Sunday night we'll have a much better feel for strength and direction and potential impact.
Back to you in the studio.
Joe? Joe?! Get off the throne, dammit! We're live in three... two... one...

:p

[LikaNui]

Look at the radar image at this link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_satellite.php?stormid=EP092007) and you can clearly see that today's clouds aren't part of Hurricane Flossie.

[LikaNui]

And at this link (http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ir/isanepac.gif) is an animated satellite image of Flossie.

:eek:

[mel]

And at this link (http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ir/isanepac.gif) is an animated satellite image of Flossie.


I notice the animated image is from AccuWeather. Back in 1992 KGMB TV caught some big flack for using AccuWeather and followed their prediction that Hurricane Iniki would hit Honolulu, while the NOAA I think predicted a miss for Honolulu and having it hit Kauai.... which is what really happened.

I wonder if any of the local stations are using AccuWeather today? It would seem the NOAA is probably better trusted.

That being said, KFVE TV's 9 o'clock newscast says that winds are now at 140 mph. :eek:

[Karen]

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
0900 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 143.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT


Source, NOAA

[Pomai]

This is an interesting AP statistic (http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/11/hurricane.flossie.ap/index.html)...

The islands get an average of 4.5 tropical cyclones a year and one hurricane about every 15 years. Last year, the central Pacific had five tropical cyclones after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted two to three.

Currently she's here (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/vis-l.jpg), holding a steady westerly course, behaving and remaining south of the Hawaiian chain.

Back to you Joe.

[i-hungry]

Flossie for mayor!

[mel]

Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2)

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..

[1stwahine]

Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2)



They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..

Think POSITIVE...POSITIVE...It's not going to happen.;)

It will be only rain.

Auntie Lynn

[mel]

I think the old saying, "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" applies here. Reality so far is with the latter... "prepare for the worst". Next NOAA report is at 11 AM HST.

[Pomai]

Today...

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1282/1094770271_b6a45243eb_o.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1094770271&size=o)

Yesterday...

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1390/1083730969_7ed2dfa54a_o.jpg

[GeckoGeek]

Current forecast shows south point of the Big Island will be hit with winds greater then 39MPH. Don't just focus on the eye. The storm is large and the winds extend quite some distance from the eye.

[hifotog]

You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what? Are they waiting till the "physical effects" start to happen before they say something? I think its due to the other past hurricanes quickly becoming TS to Depressions, making them decide NOT to post any alerts or advisories. As mentioned in my past posts....each 1/2 hr of monitoring Flossie, it inches closer to the isles AND has that west-northwestardly track....I think we all should prepare our essentials just in case....since its a sunday and NOT a Monday....we ALL shouldnt wait till last minute and procrastinate. Remember, we are NOT looking at effects at the center and few hundred miles then...the range of physical effects pose extends WAY beyond this...

[mel]

I think we should stick with the NOAA forecast and tracking.

[GeckoGeek]

You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what?

The lowest level alert that I know of is "Tropical Storm Watch". It's issued when the effects of Tropical Storm conditions (winds 39-73MPH) are expected in the next 36 hours. Right now I show that South Point on the Big Island could get a TSW as soon as 8PM Monday as the hurricane is predicted to by passing by 8AM Wednesday.

Sirens typically don't go off until you reach Hurricane Warning - and that's only when you expect a hurricane in the next 24 hours.

While the situation is a cause for concern, the lack of official alerts looks correct because it's all too far away time-wise.

[Pomai]

You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what? Are they waiting till the "physical effects" start to happen before they say something? What Mel said.

NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/)

Go here for the picture:
Loop image capture of the tropical Pacific (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/vis-l.jpg) via NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

[GeckoGeek]

I notice the animated image is from AccuWeather. Back in 1992 KGMB TV caught some big flack for using AccuWeather and followed their prediction that Hurricane Iniki would hit Honolulu, while the NOAA I think predicted a miss for Honolulu and having it hit Kauai.... which is what really happened.

I wonder if any of the local stations are using AccuWeather today? It would seem the NOAA is probably better trusted.

Which incident are you referring to? During Iniki, there was one forecast from NOAA that showed Oahu getting a much stronger hit. The storm had wobbled giving everyone a good scare. That changed in the next forecast.

What I remember KGMB really getting in trouble for was broadcasting AccuWeather's storm alert (Hurricane Warning?) when NOAA hadn't issued one. That created quite a bit of confusion. KGMB/AccuWeather ended up with egg on their face over that one because NOAA was right and it was a non-event. KGMB then announced while they would still use AccuWeather, they would stick with NOAA alerts. Meanwhile, AccuWeather said NOAA should have issues the warning based on the possibility of the hurricane hitting and the inherent uncertainty in forecasting.

And as a note, all of my comments are based on looking at a graphic representation of NOAA's forecasts.

[mel]

That's probably the incident with AccuWeather and KGMB. It's been so long ago I forget the exact details. But I do know that KGMB and AccWeather got egg in their face for quite some time after Iniki hit.

my 3,000th post.

[craigwatanabe]

Well after a few brief morning showers, today (Sunday) is looking like a really nice day here in Keaau.

[glossyp]

Well after a few brief morning showers, today (Sunday) is looking like a really nice day here in Keaau.
Famous last words! I said something to the same effect two days before Super Typhoon Omar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Omar) took off our roof. :D

[Karen]

She's started weakening in the past six hours in terms of "warmer cloud top temperatures" but why this makes her weaker and not stronger, I don't have the education to understand, not yet anyway. This is told in Advisory number 17 by NOAA.

There was a break in the eyewall to the East and I know any break in it sounds good cuz they totally lose that eye when they are dieing.

They say "it appears" that vertical shear is starting to affect the thing and I know that's good, the word shear is always good to hear about a hurricane.

Here's the link to Adv. 17...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCDCP2

[mel]

I hope the weakening trend continues. The shear is a good thing as there is a high to the north of the state that is supposed to do that.

From the 11AM forecast:

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST OR ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.

Winds still gusting near 135 mph, but now 5 mph less than the last report. A small, but good start... still not a trend and the hurricane remains very strong.

Let's see what happens at 5:00 PM when the next report is due.

[Karen]

Good points, Mel and hoo boy, waking up tomorrow I bet we're all on the 'net in record time. Caffeine can be made while the thing boots up nicely. What a difference a night's sleep can make with these things!

[LikaNui]

Quote: "HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES."

The projected path at the moment takes Flossie within 70 miles of the Big Island, so TSF winds are definitely in the BI's future if the track stays the same.
And an extremely minor course change would put full hurricane-force winds there.
The next 24 to 36 hours are critical, obviously. Wind shear can come and go, water temps fluctuate, wind speeds can fall -- or rise! --and the track is totally unpredictable. Any or all of those hanges can happen in mere minutes.
Every sane resident should follow the reports very very closely.

[zztype]

http://starbulletin.com/breaking/breaking.php?id=6089

"The current track and intensity forecast may require watches for portions of the Hawaiian islands early Monday," the advisory says. "Everyone in the Hawaiian islands is urged to continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Flossie."

They'll set up watches and warnings as the storm gets closer.

[LikaNui]

The most recent satellite image at this link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_satellite.php?stormid=EP092007) is a change from yesterday's forecast. The image shows predicted wind speeds (hurricane, tropical storm, tropical depression) and the bad news is that the hurricane indicators (in red) now extend past the Big Island, instead of stopping short of it as they showed yesterday.
:(

[LikaNui]

Sorry. This was a duplicate of the post immediately above, so I removed it.
Darned computers.

[GeckoGeek]

She's started weakening in the past six hours in terms of "warmer cloud top temperatures" but why this makes her weaker and not stronger, I don't have the education to understand, not yet anyway.

Hurricanes are driven by heat differential - warm ocean, cool atmosphere. If the ocean cools down, or the atmosphere heats up, that reduces the amount of "food" for the monster.

[escondido100]

here in captain cook and to the south in ocean view....we are getting nervous.....time to gather those emergency supplies and get ready for a big blow......hopefully it will be smaller than what is currently predicted....but the forecast and the county of hawaii civil defense messages are taking this quite serious......we will see where we are tomorrow when it comes to learning more about the likelyhood of this being bad.
pray!!!!!

[lavagal]

here in captain cook and to the south in ocean view....we are getting nervous.....time to gather those emergency supplies and get ready for a big blow......hopefully it will be smaller than what is currently predicted....but the forecast and the county of hawaii civil defense messages are taking this quite serious......we will see where we are tomorrow when it comes to learning more about the likelyhood of this being bad.
pray!!!!!


Never take such a storm lightly. We are all holding the Big Island up to the light, that's for sure! Make that the entire state, in case Flossie has a chip on her shoulder for being given such a monniker.

[hifotog]

Reading GeckoGeeks comments, I must say that lately, its been STILL HOT AS a DICKENS especially in daytime...summer time yet! Well, for the past last few hours ago, Flossie seemed to settle down as I didnt see too much intensity a while ago..and thats like about 1pm hst. today. So...I thought maybe the shearing is starting and everythings going to be ok...but NOOOOO...I come home about an hr ago...turn on my internet and what do I see??? BIG HUGE RED DOT and on the other satellite...bIg BLACK DOT!!!! I guess Flossie found some temperature change to feed on. As for shopping for needed essentials....LONGS DRUGS has their sunday ad up and got supplies on sales...flashlights, and other things...so I suggest that ALL US HTrs be on guard and dont piss of Flossie..cuz I think it already IS!!! Btw...cant recall but think about the other hurricane that hit us..esp Kauai...that baby gave a mean hook and instead of diverting itself away from the isle...the baby swung back with a real MEAN BLOW!!!

[LikaNui]

Click on this image of Hurricane Iniki's 1992 track to enlarge it. Note how Iniki started to hook southwest away from us, but then made a radical 90 degree turn to the right!!!
Anyone who looks at Flossie's current and predicted track and thinks we're safe... best think again.
EVERY media outlet should be showing this image as a warning.

Shift happens.

:eek:

[Pomai]

Click on this image of Hurricane Iniki's 1992 track to enlarge it. Note how Iniki started to hook southwest away from us, but then made a radical 90 degree turn to the right!!!
Anyone who looks at Flossie's current and predicted track and thinks we're safe... best think again.
EVERY media outlet should be showing this image as a warning.

Shift happens.

:eek:It also looks like Iniki was much farther south on its original path than Flossie currently is. Is that correct?

The weather today in Waikiki was disturbingly nice. What a tease.

Gotta' make a run for some emergency preparedness supplies tomorrow.

[GeckoGeek]

EVERY media outlet should be showing this image as a warning.

Shift happens.

Yes, but there's a reason for the shift.

Edit: Check this link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1992.php) for details.

[mel]

The winds are still at 135 mph according to the last bulletin issued at 11:PM last night.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2



HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 795 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES.

The supposed weakening is not happening fast enough. Big Islanders need to brace themselves for this, and the rest of us need to continue monitoring the situation.

Next report at 5 AM today.

[Karen]

LikaNui, you make an excellent point with the Iniki track pic! Wow, I had never seen that and though people had probably told me it did this, as I didn't move here till early '94, nothing says it like a pic. DANG....and dayum.

I need to hyper-down and get to sleep so I can awaken and have a reality check. :D

[GeckoGeek]

The latest shows about the same results. South Point on the Big Island is just touching the 39MPH wind level. Probably 2AM Wednesday. The rest of the islands are some distance from the projected path.

What I'm hearing is Oahu will have high surf and rain. So I wouldn't be too concerned for Oahu residents unless you are very close to shore or prone to flooding.

Still, a good time to check on your Hurricane plans to see if all is in order.

Expect some kind of Watch for the Big Island to be posted Monday morning.

[mel]

The 5:00 am Hurricane Flossie Report from NOAA:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2


BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 705 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES.


Weakening in 24 hours? It picked up strength since the last report. Where's the shearing?

[glossyp]

This graphic from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center includes closest point of approach, estimated times, strength, etc.
944

[LikaNui]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES. Yesterday the TSF winds extended 90 miles... now 20 more miles added, to 110. Not good. Not good at all.

This graphic from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center includes closest point of approach, estimated times, strength, etc. Most noticeable on that graphic is that it shows Flossie remaining as a hurricane all the way through/past Hawai`i and not downgrading to Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression levels, as was indicated yesterday.

:(

[escondido100]

Here on the BI it is calm............but we are getting ready...going to get some plywood today......got water...candles..fuel..etc... the civil defense message has not been updated since 5pm last nite.....in spite of every other source.. letting us know....to get prepared....i hop the CD stays on top of this...so far theyhavent kept pace on their website.... wish us luck.....
steve

[1stwahine]

Here on the BI it is calm............but we are getting ready...going to get some plywood today......got water...candles..fuel..etc... the civil defense message has not been updated since 5pm last nite.....in spite of every other source.. letting us know....to get prepared....i hop the CD stays on top of this...so far theyhavent kept pace on their website.... wish us luck.....
steve

You are All in my thoughts and prayers!

Auntie Lynn

[LikaNui]

Just now saw that sustained winds increased from 135mph to 140mph (meaning gusts are now well over 165mph) and that forward motion increased from 14mph to 15mph. :eek:

Flossie is strengthening and picking up forward speed. Lord have mercy.

:(

[LikaNui]

In this new message (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2) from NOAA, posted by them 5 minutes ago at 8am (when no update was expected until 11am), note that Flossie was formerly described as a "dangerous" hurricane but for the first time is now being called "extremely dangerous."
Also, look at this radar loop image (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif).
For the few who've kinda shrugged the whole thing off: Time to really sit up and pay attention.
:(

[Tiabla]

My friends and family are taking this storm seriously, but at work it's a different story. So far this morning I've heard:

"It's not a hurricane, it's just a tropical storm."
"They said on the news that it will miss Oahu."
"I'm not prepared at all; I hope it doesn't hit."
"My brother-in-law works for the Navy. He said not to worry."

Da Nile is not just a river in Egypt....

[infinitypro]

My friends and family are taking this storm seriously, but at work it's a different story. So far this morning I've heard:

"It's not a hurricane, it's just a tropical storm."
"They said on the news that it will miss Oahu."
"I'm not prepared at all; I hope it doesn't hit."
"My brother-in-law works for the Navy. He said not to worry."

Da Nile is not just a river in Egypt....

It's disappointing to hear that even after all of the natual disasters the world has been through that there's still this "colony" of people whom rely on the coconut wireless rather than do some research themselves, the information is available! If it doesn't hit, great...prepare for the next, 'tis the season, but let's not dig a hole in the ground and stick our heads in there...now a days you can DIGG! :D

To our HT family and friends, to our communities-at-large; be safe, be smart, be first!

[Fat Jeff]

Fear not fellow HT brothers & sisters! The Fat Jeff clan is prepared for this storm...that alone virtually guarantees that it will not come anywhere close to us!

P.S. Was nice seeing so many neighbors at Sam's Club this morning :)

[Pua'i Mana'o]

DOE hasn't officially announced it yet, but my (((sources))) tell me that B.I. schools will most likely be closed tomorrow.

*sigh*

gonna leave work early today and batten down the hatches...

[Star of Gladness]

This could be a real problem for the entire island chain. Time to go to Costco.

[Karen]

LOL Jeff, I like the way you think, and you do make a good point. Let's all prepare and sounds like we are, and the thing won't make a right turn.

We have tarps, but are picking up some more large, plastic containers for water storage so that we can flush the toilets for days, if need be. Oh! and I need to pick up more drinking water. We still aren't clear if the bottled water can be two or that and a half year old, having stayed in utter darkness and be truly fine for drinking....per the plastic.

[LikaNui]

Good news, bad news. In this 11am update (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2), the Hurricane Center says sustained winds dropped from 140 to 125 so Flossie is now a Category 3 instead of a Category 4... but of course that can change again, rapidly.
Bad news is that the TSF winds had been expanded from 90 to 110 miles from the eye and have been increased even more to 140 miles in just the past few hours.
Pressure is at 956 millibars, so that's still dropping too. (That's a bad thing, for the uninitiated.)
With Flossie expected to come within 70 miles of South Point, well...

[/gulp]

[Peshkwe]

This site seems pretty good for info on how to store water, what kind of containers to use and info on commercial units for filtration (even sea water converters):

http://www.equipped.com/watrfood.htm

and basic 72 hour supply kit:

http://www.equipped.com/72hourkit.htm

[Sprite]

This could be a real problem for the entire island chain. Time to go to Costco.

Well, at least some people are taking it seriously. The news did say that people were at Home Depot buying supplies yesterday.

Tiabla, I love the "Da Nile..." expression!

[Karen]

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 21
Nws Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu Hi Ep092007
1100 Am Hst Mon Aug 13 2007

Hurricane Flossie Remains A Dangerous Hurricane With A Clear Well-defined Eye And Good Outflow...especially To The North. However...cloud Tops Have Warmed Slightly Over The Past Six Hours And Aircraft Recon Extrapolated A Surface Wind Speed Of 103 Kt At 1830z. This Contrasts With A Ci Of 6.0 Or 115 Kt From Jtwc And Sab At 1733z And 1800z...respectively. To Split The Difference...we Will Initialize Flossie At 110 Kt For This Run...making Flossie A Category 3 Hurricane On The Saffir Simpson Scale. This Drop In Intensity May Be Brief Since Satellite Loops Hint At A Cycle Of Eyewall Convective Intensity.

Consensus Track Guidance Remains Tightly Packed And Very Close To Guidance Offered Six Hours Ago...but Gfdl Has Shifted To The Right. Bamd And Nogaps Are The Right And Left Outliers...respectively. Our Forecast Track Remains On The Right Side Of The Envelope Described By Consensus Guidance...with A Slight Speed Up Of A Knot Or Two Through 96 Hours. An Initial Motion Of 295 Degrees Means Flossie Will Take A Path Very Slightly To The Right Of The Previous Path Through 24 Hours...with The Paths Matching Up Afterwards. Intensity Will Remain At 110 Kt Through 24 Hours Based Mainly On Persistence...with A Gradual Decrease Expected Afterwards As Shear And Cooler Water Finally Take Their Toll. It Must Be Noted That Flossie Has Been Surprisingly Resilient To Cooler Ocean Temperatures So Far. At Any Rate...we Forecast Flossie To Remain At Hurricane Strength Through The Entire 120 Hour Forecast Period.

We Have Increased The 34 Kt Wind Radius To 120 Nautical Miles Through The Northwest And Northeast Quadrants Through 24 Hours...based On Scatterometer And Aircraft Data. This Will Place The Big Island Of Hawaii Within The Radius Of Tropical Storm Force Winds Beginning Around Midday Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning Is Therefore In Effect For The Big Island Of Hawaii. A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect. With The Current Forecast Track...the Islands From Maui County To Kauai County Are Not Expected To Require Any Types Of Watches. However...any Significant Deviation Of The Track Toward The North Might Result In Watches Or Warnings For Additional Areas In The Hawaiian Islands.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 13/2100z 15.3n 150.6w 110 Kt
12hr Vt 14/0600z 16.1n 152.4w 110 Kt
24hr Vt 14/1800z 17.0n 154.7w 110 Kt
36hr Vt 15/0600z 17.9n 156.8w 105 Kt
48hr Vt 15/1800z 18.6n 158.9w 100 Kt
72hr Vt 16/1800z 20.1n 163.0w 90 Kt
96hr Vt 17/1800z 21.3n 167.0w 70 Kt
120hr Vt 18/1800z 22.4n 171.3w 65 Kt

[LikaNui]

The two WalMart stores on the Big Island just announced that they'll be staying open 24 hours a day, effective immediately, so folks can stock up on emergency supplies.

[LikaNui]

DOE hasn't officially announced it yet, but my (((sources))) tell me that B.I. schools will most likely be closed tomorrow.
Your sources were right on the money. It was just officially announced.
Best of luck to you over there, and keep us posted if and when you can, please.

[koloagirl]

Aloha from Kaua'i!

My husband works at the Lihu'e Costco and said that when they opened their doors this morning, there were well over 200 people standing in front waiting to come in -- he worked the "check out" area and in the first 1/2 hour after opening, he "checked out" 400 people!

They are out of "Kirkland" water, almost out of "Arrowhead" - and batteries and toilet paper are soon-to-be gone as well!

I'd say folks are finally reading the paper or watching the news and taking this thing seriously!

He said that WalMart had a similar scenario when they opened up this morning.

If we get a "Hurricane Warning" like the Big Island, there may be no water, toilet paper left to buy!

Malama Pono,

[Karen]

Hubby just got home from City Mill in Mililani, and said that people are buying up the crank radios fast. We already have ours, but if anyone wants any, run for 'em fast.

I'm headed out pretty soon for more cases of drinking water. Otherwise, we're ready as we can be.

Praying for Big island and for us all.

[escondido100]

aloha.....just returned from kona to my home on kealakekua bay.....in town at home depot and lowes there didnt seem to be many people getting supplies.....costco was another story.......lotsa tp and water going out the door...walmart in hilo and kona will now be open 24 hrs....at 5pm each district on hawaii will open up a shelter for those that will feel more secure there.....many folks are older and infirm may not want to deal with preparedness issues around ther home and walk away till things calm down.... it seems that civil defense is up to speed but the radio and tv while mentioning the storm are not covering it very much.
i talked to about a dozen people in town that werent aware of it.
just checked the tracking and reports and it seems that for sure it will be windy and rainy.....so back to nailing things down.....
steve

[Pua'i Mana'o]

ugh.

it is sooo humid right now. No wind whatsoever (evil system to the SE of me with the humiliating name is sucking it all up!)

Ka'u is going to get hammered. Puna will too- everyone is going to have full catchment tanks by tmorrow noon. If the 'cane wings close to Kona, the draft back is going to push strong winds through the two mauna and give Hilo one really wicked windstorm.

My biggest fear is my roof. I really like it and want it to stay on my house, without any trees knocking it in or wind blowing it off. If that wish comes true, everything else is gravy.

[Glen Miyashiro]

(evil system to the SE of me with the humiliating name is sucking it all up!)Would it feel any less oppressively humid if the name were Hawaiianized? What would the Hawaiianized version of Flossie be, anyway -- Puloki? :D

[helen]

The 2pm advisory (21A (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2)) is out for Flossie. Comparing the 11am (#21) and the 2pm (#21A) advisories you get:



Eye location lat./long. - 15.3N 150.6W (#21) 15.6N 151.5W (#21A)
distance from Hilo - 425 miles SE (#21) 365 miles SE (#21A)
distance from Honolulu - 635 miles SE (#21) 570 miles SE (#21A)

[Konaguy]

I had gotten home this am from work, looked at the satellite images and went to sleep. I got up this afternoon and saw the updated satellite images.The sucker has gotten bigger. It kinda freaks me out about this, as my parents have a house in Discovery Harbour, above South Point. It was recently completed in 2004. Its like my parents baby. I hope it remains intact :(

Here is the 200PM advisory on this hurricane.. not good.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2

[glossyp]

There is a lot of rain in this system. Lots of prayers for all HT friends on the Big Island. Hopefully, everyone will just get really soaked and not blown around.
945

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Would it feel any less oppressively humid if the name were Hawaiianized? What would the Hawaiianized version of Flossie be, anyway -- Puloki? :D


har har. You wait until all of those "FEMA flubs as all efforts are foiled by Flossie" fi-fai-fou-fam sh*t starts happening...

it didn't have to be Hawaiian...coulda been Franco or Ferdinand or Filroy for all I care...but Flossie? Feh!

[Konaguy]

My dad is making an emergency trip to our Discovery Harbour house to board up the windows. I just spent a good hour loading up his truck with wood.

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Aaron, tell your dad to allow breezeway through the house; without it the pressure building within the house will rip the roof off. (I might not be explaining myself clearly, but hopefully you understand my point).

[scrivener]

I just spent a good hour loading up his truck with wood.
That doesn't sound like a good hour to me.

[Konaguy]

Aaron, tell your dad to allow breezeway through the house; without it the pressure building within the house will rip the roof off. (I might not be explaining myself clearly, but hopefully you understand my point).

I spoke to my dad, he was aware of the compression factor. He doesn't have enough lumber anyway to board up all the windows.

[Konaguy]

That doesn't sound like a good hour to me.

No it wasn't. He stopped at Home Depot and bought lumber there and had some backup lumber at our Kona house. Which I had to load into his truck.

[helen]

The 5pm advisory (22 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2)) is out for Flossie. Comparing the 11am (#21), the 2pm (#21A) and 5pm (#22) advisories you get:



Eye location lat./long. - 15.3N 150.6W (#21) 15.6N 151.5W (#21A) 15.9N 152.0W (#22)
distance from Hilo - 425 miles SE (#21) 365 miles SE (#21A) 330 miles SE (#22)
distance from Honolulu - 635 miles SE (#21) 570 miles SE (#21A) 535 miles SE (#22)

[Karen]

The thing clearly is going more northwesterly and the five PM bulletin does say that even past Kauai she'll be really northwestern. It'll be really cool to see the local weather people decipher what is written and tell how much closer to the islands she's going. I look at the UH radar map and clearly see it more northwesterly and yet reading the latest bulletin they still say no closer then, is it eighty miles south of the BI?

Praying especially for BI folks, for you, your critters and loved ones but also for your roofs, homes, autos and everything peripheral.

Y'all remember even here on Oahu to catch as much water for things like toilet flushing, that you can. Even your recyclable, blue bin if it isn't grossly dirty, can be filled with water and with a pitcher or something you can draw enough for each flush. I'm not convinced that even Oahu here may not lose power, and or have water/sewer infrastructure problems with this thing supposed to still be 100MPH when south of us, and now it's veering more northwesterly.

[escondido100]

well here in kelakekua bay we seem to be all prepared.....just how prepared can you be......they are saying 40 to 70 mph winds predicted...especially from puna to kau......i have 10 sheets of plywood ready to go up first thing in the morn if the new track at that time dictates that kind of safeguard. the civil defense hasnt posted anything since 12noon. i wish they would post something hourly just so you get a feel that they are on top of things... i know a lot of stuff goes on behind the scenes....but how hard is it to update a web page?....the NOAA site has been a great source of regular info... the radio just puts out what CD posts and that is only broadcast every hour or so.......the bay is totally calm...but i am sure that will change overnite. they say to have all boats secured by dark..... i imagine that several of the larger boats that dont fit in the harbor will take shelter at capt cook monument..however i dont know how protected that willlbe with the storm tracking from the south like it is......lets hope and pray for the best...
steve

[LikaNui]

The looping satellite image at this link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif) is worthy of a "Holy sheeeeet!".
:eek:

[1stwahine]

The Department Of Human Services Hawaii Public Housing Authority issued a Flyer to ALL RESIDENTS this afternoon!

It informed residents of Flossie and what to do. It also stated HPHA is not responsible for personal items and welfare. Each resident is advised to initiate their own personal emergency plan. It encouraged the residents in a list of things to do.

Auntie Lynn

[Konaguy]

The looping satellite image at this link (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif) is worthy of a "Holy sheeeeet!".
:eek:

That is the same thing I thought this afternoon when I looked at the updated satellite images. It is huge sucker.

[scrivener]

I'm hoping for enough wind and rain to cancel work, but not enough to do any real damage.

[tutusue]

I'm absolutely taken aback by the ambivalence, not to mention the lack of awareness, about this storm. Of the 5 or 6 residents I've spoken with in the elevators at Discovery Bay today, NONE had an ounce of concern, one had no knowledge. The bank teller wasn't aware of a hurricane. The sales associates at City Mill around noon seemed unconcerned, possibly 'cuz the store wasn't crowded with people stocking up. The adrenaline hadn't hit yet!

I just bought some bright red duct tape for the windows. It won't stop the windows from imploding but whatever's left of the glass I can at least spell out..."Stranded, drop wine"! :D

I just found out my Waikiki condo has no hurricane coverage...this after I've been bugging the insurance company (of 20 years) since early May to send me the policy. In July they told me they had no record of my requests so I, once again, told them what I wanted...NOW! I am NOT a happy camper right now and once this storm passes I will be looking for another insurance company...provided companies are still insuring in Hawaii!

Hunker down and stay safe, Big Islanders. Things can be replaced. People can't. Tikiyaki...are you in Hilo now?

[LikaNui]

I'm hoping for enough wind and rain to cancel work, but not enough to do any real damage. O`ahu forecast for tomorrow is wind up to 35 and maybe higher... expect more wind on Wednesday, and that's IF Flossie stays on her current track. It could, of course, get much worse.
Also, I just got a call from my insider at the SuperFerry. They're ready to race out of here to the safest quadrant of Flossie, if necessary. Much talk among all the large ships in Honolulu Harbor right now about whether to stay or run.

[mel]

I guess the Superferry and cruise ships could just sail northeast of the islands and wait out the storm away from the tracking path. If Flossie threatens Honolulu, and hopefully if the airports on the Big Island are not damaged, then I guess the planes could be flown there to wait it out. Got 2 airports... Hilo and Kona, though Kona can probably be congested if all the private jets are there.

[mel]

Back to the storm at hand...

Advisory 22A (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2) NOAA


AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

[helen]

The 8pm advisory (22A) is out.

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; lat long of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11:00 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2:00 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5:00 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8:00 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE

[LikaNui]

Advisory 22A (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2) NOAA It picked up forward speed again. Up to 16mph. And being 295 miles away, that equals 18 hours to ground zero... roughly 2pm Tuesday, local time, if the forward speed stays steady.
And looking at that satellite loop, it sure seems that Flossie is turning more northerly. Anybody else see that? Sure hope I'm wrong.

[adrian]

I hope our friends on the big island are taking precautions.

(and I pray that they and their loved ones will survive - and that their camera batteries can hold up so they can take good pictures). :D

[LikaNui]

A brief moment of comic relief.
I'm watching the KFVE News At 9 right now. They just aired a commercial for the Hilton Waikoloa Village, and the spot started with this:

"NOW is the perfect time to visit the Big Island."

:rolleyes:

[Altivec]

I hope our friends on the big island are taking precautions.

(and I pray that they and their loved ones will survive - and that their camera batteries can hold up so they can take good pictures). :D*thows a battery at Adrian* :mad:

[Karen]

LikeNui, agreed, it sure looks more northwesterly instead of "west, northwest" as they are still officially saying. Don't doubt your own eyes, hmmm.....

Sue, about no quake insurance....we have a mortgage so we have it,but NOT on the things inside. If the worst ever happens we'll be eating it on all of our personal belongings, so I do know how ya feel.

PS...look at this UH radar! the thing is soo precisely moving northwesterly that if it stays right like this, and no, it may not but if it does, looks to be headed dang directly into the big island and the others, too, though a bit weaker.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=nep&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes10

Last PS, thanks for tolerating Edith bunker here, LOL.....another family member looked and reminded me that the map is small but the earth is much larger and round, but the map looks flat and I maybe am a bit more concerned than I should be? hmmm.....over and out. newstime~

[GeckoGeek]

This could be a real problem for the entire island chain. Time to go to Costco.

Not likely:

NWS: "...BUT THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND MAKES IT
LESS LIKELY THAT FLOSSIE WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND."

[GeckoGeek]

Fear not fellow HT brothers & sisters! The Fat Jeff clan is prepared for this storm...that alone virtually guarantees that it will not come anywhere close to us!

I hear you brother! I did a little "topping off" so my luck adds to yours. ;)

[helen]

The 11pm advisory (23) is out.

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; lat long of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11:00 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2:00 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5:00 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8:00 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
08/13 11:00 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE


By the way I sort of noticed that the links that myself and others have been using in this thread pointing a specific bulletin from the weather service is actually pointing to the lastest bulletin from the weather service.

Also I am not going to post the 2am, 5am and 8am bulletins until 9am (HST) unless someone else wants to do it.

[GeckoGeek]

The BI is going to get some fun weather:

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT."


Oahu is expected to get an inch or two. That and high surf is all we're expected to get.

I think some people in this thread are getting really worked up over this. While it's good to plan and prepare, it sounds like some are about ready to have anxiety attacks. Chill. Do what you can and don't worry about the rest. What's going to happen is going to happen.

[SusieMisajon]

Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND, they would be able to do all the million and one little jobs that might be needed now...or maybe even simply sit back and watch the show in relative peace and tranquility.

[helen]

Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND.

And that's what some of us have been doing for the last a couple of days. Preparing beforehand. As it stands right now there is no official word that this storm is going to hit the island of Oahu within the next 36 hours.

Now anyone in the state who has been keeping up with current events know that there is this hurricane that is out there. And each person in their own way and/or style is going to prepare for this storm with whatever resources they have at their disposal.

So please don't worry about us.

[SusieMisajon]

And that's what some of us have been doing for the last a couple of days. Preparing beforehand. As it stands right now there is no official word that this storm is going to hit the island of Oahu within the next 36 hours.

Now anyone in the state who has been keeping up with current events know that there is this hurricane that is out there. And each person in their own way and/or style is going to prepare for this storm with whatever resources they have at their disposal.

So please don't worry about us.
Of course I'm worried. My family still lives in Hawaii...and some of them are in Hilo. My son is in Hilo, visiting his Granny, and I KNOW she hasn't listened to a word I've said, about prepping, over the past few years.

The thing is, being prepped well beforehand not only saves stress, but also money. NOBODY can prep for any major disaster with just a few trips to an already crowded supermarket, much less pay for all that's needed. Prepping takes time and money and energy. Plus, given time to experiment and calm to think, mistakes can be rectified.

I've been watching Big Island hurricane shoppers....they're buying toilet paper and ramen noodles and bottled water. I hope they've thought of cooking fuel for that saimin. Bottled water is much more expensive that having a water storage system in place...plus the bottled stuff won't last long if you use it for cooking and washing, too.

[Karen]

Gecko, no anxiety attacks here, just a ton of caffeine and plenty of energy to be getting a lot done, meaning the usual Monday routine and this extra storm prep, and maybe also picking up on the energy from a bunch of extra calls and emails from caring mainlanders.

I can't speak for others, of course but can assure you that reading my own written words that anxiety is far removed from them. I use things like this to get a ton of extra work done, sorta like when company's a'comin and so heck, I go into overdrive.

That being said, now that I've seen Iniki's track in graphic....I know it really ain't over till it's past us and that anything can still happen.

[mel]

OK what happened to the rest of the messages that were here? Did the board crash and get rebooted?

[glossyp]

OK what happened to the rest of the messages that were here? Did the board crash and get rebooted?
Weird. I thought I needed to clear my cache or something. Definitely gone missing.

[beaker]

Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND, they would be able to do all the million and one little jobs that might be needed now...or maybe even simply sit back and watch the show in relative peace and tranquility.

Our office is closed, so I'm going out for some emergency coffee and donuts! :D (essential morning...er, hurricane survival supplies)

[mel]

OK, I just noticed these messages got re-arranged and put into a new thread.

Well just for the record, Flossie is downgraded to a category 2 storm.

Bulletin #24 @ 5AM (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2)

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

The weakening is a good trend.

[LikaNui]

The eye is falling apart, which means Flossie is weakening ever-so-slightly, but it also expands the range for TSF winds, up to 145 miles now.
Also note that just two days ago the prediction was for 8' to 10', and now is for 20' to 25'.
Course appears to be wobbling slightly.

[glossyp]

The eye is falling apart, which means Flossie is weakening ever-so-slightly, but it also expands the range for TSF winds, up to 145 miles now.
Also note that just two days ago the prediction was for 8' to 10', and now is for 20' to 25'.
Course appears to be wobbling slightly.
I'm not familiar enough with the dynamics of storms in this region, but we always worried when a storm slowed in forward motion. Of course, those storms did not have collapsing eyes. Slightly OT, but I think Shari Shima has done an outstanding job explaining the storm.

[lavagal]

So what do you guys make of this (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/sat_State.php)? To me it looks like Maui is within the outskirts of this storm and the Big Island easily engulfed. Looks more eastern than I had thought it would be. Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

[GeckoGeek]

They get a cloudy day. Just because the clouds are part of Flossie doesn't mean they will experience any usual weather. Oahu is expected to get 1-2 inch of rain. Maui looks to be the same distance from the track so I'd expect somewhere around the same. Just a windy rainy day.

[lavagal]

They get a cloudy day. Just because the clouds are part of Flossie doesn't mean they will experience any usual weather. Oahu is expected to get 1-2 inch of rain. Maui looks to be the same distance from the track so I'd expect somewhere around the same. Just a windy rainy day.

that would work for me!

[helen]

So what do you guys make of this (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/sat_State.php)?
For one thing you are looking at the image provided by the National Weather Service Office.

If you look at this image (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2007/sat/EP092007_070814_1730_sat.gif) from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for roughly the same time period you will see that the while Flossie is touching Maui it is the fringe of the storm.

[helen]

The 8am advisory (24A) is out.

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; lat long of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
08/13 11 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE
08/14 2 am; #23A; 16.6N 153.5W; 240 miles SSE; 440 miles SE
08/14 5 am; #24; 16.9N 154.1W; 205 miles SSE; 390 miles SE
08/14 8 am; #24A; 17.0N 154.4W; 190 miles SSE; 370 miles SE

[jkpescador]

Anyone blogging about the storm from the Big Island?

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Its Mauna Loa.

Hurricanes are altitude bound. We are going to get hammered in bad tropical storm weather, but hitting the wall like it will (considering it stays on the same course and not bounce off approx 150mi offshore) means that the eye is going to dissolve.

[Matt Hart]

Just wanted to offer best wishes to everyone who might be in the path and here's to hoping it's just a glancing blow.

[craigwatanabe]

Well it's 9:38am and the weather outside my home in Keaau down by the ocean is heavy overcast with absolutely no winds or rain. Or the calm before the storm:(

[SusieMisajon]

Well it's 9:38am and the weather outside my home in Keaau down by the ocean is heavy overcast with absolutely no winds or rain. Or the calm before the storm:(
Are you in the eye?

[helen]

According to this image (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2007/sat/EP092007_070814_1830_sat.gif) the answer to that is no. The eye of the storm has yet to touch any land. And if did there would be calm after the storm and not before.

[craigwatanabe]

No. If we were the sky would be a nice sunny day. I think the hurricane is stalled somewhere off of the Big Island right now as the winds are absolutely still and the sky is getting darker at least in Keaau.

[Glen Miyashiro]

Slow is bad. Slow means more of a chance of flooding, because more rain gets dumped in the same area than if the storm moved quicker.

[escondido100]

here is a good link to a streaming doppler radar site that shows the progress of the storm...hit refresh avery so often to see the latest action.
http://www.konaweb.com/flossie.html

[craigwatanabe]

Oh man that image is amazing. So big and so close. I just hope the Trades keep blowing that thing away from us.

[LikaNui]

here is a good link to a streaming doppler radar site that shows the progress of the storm...hit refresh avery so often to see the latest action. http://www.konaweb.com/flossie.html Wow, an excellent link. Mahalo nui!

[Karen]

Wow, a radar link I've never seen, thanks. The eleven AM bulletin should be out shortly.

This UH radar map makes it look as if the southern part of BI should already be covered in very stormy clouds. dang, the difference in the maps.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=nep&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes10&overlay=off

[LikaNui]

This UH radar map makes it look as if the southern part of BI should already be covered in very stormy clouds.
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=nep&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes10&overlay=off And that image also seems to show that the hurricane's eye is slowly re-forming.
:eek:

[Pomai]

If Flossie threatens Honolulu, and hopefully if the airports on the Big Island are not damaged, then I guess the planes could be flown there to wait it out. Got 2 airports... Hilo and Kona, though Kona can probably be congested if all the private jets are there.On this morning's news, they said commercial airlines would fill their aircraft up with fuel to weight them down on the tarmac when the hurricane approaches. For a cat-2 some distance off-shore perhaps. But if it were a category 3 or higher, sound kinda' iffy that would keep even a larger aircraft such as a 767 (plus fuel) put; not to mention the added fire hazard potential.

[helen]

Adding in the 11am advisory (25).

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; latitude longitude of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
08/13 11 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE
08/14 2 am; #23A; 16.6N 153.5W; 240 miles SSE; 440 miles SE
08/14 5 am; #24; 16.9N 154.1W; 205 miles SSE; 390 miles SE
08/14 8 am; #24A; 17.0N 154.4W; 190 miles SSE; 370 miles SE
08/14 11 am; #25; 17.3N 154.9W; 165 miles S; 340 miles SE

[craigwatanabe]

well I guess if they point the nose of the aircraft towards the wind and keep the flaps down that should help.

[joshuatree]

On this morning's news, they said commercial airlines would fill their aircraft up with fuel to weight them down on the tarmac when the hurricane approaches. For a cat-2 some distance off-shore perhaps. But if it were a category 3 or higher, sound kinda' iffy that would keep even a larger aircraft such as a 767 (plus fuel) put; not to mention the added fire hazard potential.

Hmm, wouldn't it be safer and more effective to load sand bags onto cargo containers and stick'em in the plane's belly?

[craigwatanabe]

Well here's a pretty picture of Flossie from the NOAA's OSEI Image of the Day

[craigwatanabe]

Hmm, wouldn't it be safer and more effective to load sand bags onto cargo containers and stick'em in the plane's belly?

But a total loss of aircraft is insurable:D

[craigwatanabe]

I don't know but this image looks like it's gonna be realllllly close and the rain just picked up over here in Keaau

[helen]

What about the wind? Any sign of lead-painted Barbie dolls flying around?

[craigwatanabe]

What about the wind?


no wind. Just passing rain sometimes heavy but no wind. Here it comes again (the rain)

[Pomai]

Hmm, wouldn't it be safer and more effective to load sand bags onto cargo containers and stick'em in the plane's belly?Yeah, sand bags.. that's the ticket. Then after the storm passes, the airlines can return them back to Home Depot. :p

Winds in Honolulu are beginning to pick up a little, with mild gusts on occasion, and clouds mostly near mauka areas, otherwise partly-sunny.

Back to you Craig.

[helen]

You mean stopped raining for a while? That's is kind of strange.

[Karen]

This is a good report, except for her being so slow and the dumping more rain potential.



HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AT 1800 UTC...UW-CIMMS ESTIMATED HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS UNDERGOING ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWEST SHEAR. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH IS COUNTERED BY HAMPERED OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE AS THIS SHEAR REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOSSIE HAS AN OPEN EYEWALL TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE WIND OF 90 KT AS OF 1600 UTC. AN 1800 UTC VORTEX MESSAGE LIMITS THIS SPEED TO THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. CI VALUES OF 4.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB AS WELL AS 5.0 FROM JTWC...77 KT AND 90 KT...SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WE GIVE FLOSSIE AN INITIAL STRENGTH OF 90 KT FOR THIS RUN.

TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SHARPLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AS EACH MODEL HANDLES THE DECLINE OF FLOSSIE DIFFERENTLY...BUT THE GUIDANCE MEAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ARC OF THE OLD TRACK...BUT AN INITIAL SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WAS NEEDED GIVEN RADAR-DERIVED INITIAL MOTION OF 299 DEGREES. THIS WILL TAKE FLOSSIE A BIT CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL MITIGATE THE EFFECT THIS CHANGE WILL HAVE ON THE BIG ISLAND. WE HAVE DECREASED THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADIUS TO 90 NM WITHIN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS BASED ON AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS RADIUS IS STILL LARGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND...PROMPTING CONTINUANCE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS FLOSSIE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO 9 KT AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS WELL. HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[LikaNui]

Any sign of lead-painted Barbie dolls flying around? Good one, Helen! But wouldn't the lead in the paint weigh Barbie down, kinda like adding gas or sandbags to airplanes?
:p

[escondido100]

just drove down to honaunau and napoopoo beach. the boat ramp is closed and a county official is kepping people out of the water. however ther was a zodiac boat full of snorklers in the bay there right by two-step. the ocean is dead calm ...no wind but the overcast is building and to the south you can see some clouds stacking up....over at the wharf in napoopoo there was lotsa looky loos in rental cars and a few locals out kayaking the bay...also dead calm seas. the weather channel is broadcasting from south point and they interviewed some residents there. evidently that is the place to be as other beaches and access are closed. there seemed to be dozens of folk down there. the waves are 8-10 ft and the wind looked like it was 30mph or so......the guy they interviewed expects that the show will be spectacular as the day wears on...especially at high tide around 5pm......

[LikaNui]

Maybe I missed something here, but has anyone put up links to live webcams on the Big Island?
A really quick Google came up with these:

http://www.thehawaiichannel.com/wxcam/1505090/detail.html

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam/

http://www.konaweb.com/#WEBCAM

http://www.hawaii-kona.com/webcam/index.html

Any others, folks?

[tutusue]

KGMB is broadcasting a split screen...regular programming on the right and live shots and occasional graphics from the BI on the left.

On KITV, Ben Guiterrez (sp?) mentioned a few minutes ago the the eye of the storm seems to be trying to reform.

[craigwatanabe]

You know with Flossie's effects extending northward you'd think the trades aren't blowing enough of the fringes away which makes me think...if the trades aren't blowing strong enough could Flossie's track move more in a northerly direction as a result?

[Konaguy]

Maybe I missed something here, but has anyone put up links to live webcams on the Big Island?
A really quick Google came up with these:

http://www.thehawaiichannel.com/wxcam/1505090/detail.html

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam/

http://www.konaweb.com/#WEBCAM

http://www.hawaii-kona.com/webcam/index.html

Any others, folks?

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/cams/index.cgi

[LikaNui]

On KITV, Ben Guiterrez (sp?) mentioned a few minutes ago the the eye of the storm seems to be trying to reform. Ben might've read this post of mine (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=13417&page=14) from two hours ago.
:p

[Pua'i Mana'o]

took a long family cruise around east HI today (we are notorious rubbah-neckahs) and didn't see squat. Just looks like regular rainy muggy Puna/Hilo weather, but without the nice breeze. Bayfront was glassy, but looking up Hamakua the surf was crashing. Honolii was beautiful w/ only a few in the water (no waves; all the surfers were up roadside).

Talked to my bff in Waikoloa and she said it was windy and otherwise normal.

[tikiyaki]

We just got back from Ken's and it was as calm as could be.Just a little flooding in the parking lot, but barely and rain, and NO wind.

I keep hearing on the radio about "later today" but right now, like you said...another Hilo style muggy drizzle-y day.

Almost everyone is closed tho' No Starbux this morning :mad:
They were taping the windows when I went there.

Everyone just seems to be waiting it out.

Let's hope it doesn't get bad. Having an earthquake here was bad enough ! :cool:

[glossyp]

The JTWC latest ship avoidance graphic brings the closest point of approach to Pearl Harbor at 141 nm, this morning it was 168 nm. That is a significant shift.

[tikiyaki]

OK, so where's the frikken hurricane ?

It's dead as a doornail here in Hilo at 2:00 pm :confused:

[Palolo Joe]

Ben might've read this post of mine (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=13417&page=14) from two hours ago.
:p

Yeah... okay. Whatever.

[Karen]

Right here....

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=nep&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes10

clearly shows an eye in the thing, again.

[helen]

Adding in the 2pm advisory (25A).

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; latitude longitude of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
08/13 11 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE
08/14 2 am; #23A; 16.6N 153.5W; 240 miles SSE; 440 miles SE
08/14 5 am; #24; 16.9N 154.1W; 205 miles SSE; 390 miles SE
08/14 8 am; #24A; 17.0N 154.4W; 190 miles SSE; 370 miles SE
08/14 11 am; #25; 17.3N 154.9W; 165 miles S; 340 miles SE
08/14 2pm; #25A; 17.4N 155.2W; 160 miles S; 320 miles SE

[Leo Lakio]

well I guess if they point the nose of the aircraft towards the wind and keep the flaps down that should help.But what if the airplane is on a giant conveyor belt, going the opposite direction, at the same speed as the winds? :confused:


Or is that a different thread (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=7333)? :p

[lilin]

Associated Press Writer AUDREY McAVOY included this interesting tidbit of information in her article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070814/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather;_ylt=AvHuKhoF3fNy5RNQEnfHYrtH2ocA ) posted at Yahoo News:

At Kamigaki Market in Kealakekua, supervisor Sheryl Tremaine said Tuesday, "People are definitely buying more batteries, canned goods, saimin and, believe it or not, beer and cigarettes." Saimin is a traditional Hawaiian noodle soup.

[craigwatanabe]

But what if the airplane is on a giant conveyor belt, going the opposite direction, at the same speed as the winds?


Or is that a different thread (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=7333)? :p

You HAD to bring that up didn't ya...:D But in this scenerio the plane would never take off ONLY because of the flaps down indication...so there arguement settled:D

[LikaNui]

At Kamigaki Market in Kealakekua, supervisor Sheryl Tremaine said Tuesday, "People are definitely buying more batteries, canned goods, saimin and, believe it or not, beer and cigarettes." Saimin is a traditional Hawaiian noodle soup. And beer and cigarettes are a traditional Hawaiian dessert!
Well, beer is, anyway.
:p

[craigwatanabe]

Well you gotta figure it this way, if Flossie's gonna f*ck up everything you may as well get f*cked up as well.:D That way who the heck cares?

[LikaNui]

Well you gotta figure it this way, if Flossie's gonna f*ck up everything you may as well get f*cked up as well.:D That way who the heck cares? My emergency kit includes plenty of 12-volt batteries, plus solar- and wind-powered 12-volt chargers.
Gotta have 'em to run the 12-volt blender (http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/12-Volt-Blender_W0QQitemZ4652134169QQcmdZViewItem) for the margaritas!

:p

[LikaNui]

After just looking at all the various radar and satellite images, it seems that Flossie's forward motion has slowed down even more and it's almost at a standstill. Not a good development.
Also, go to this link (http://www.radioprofit.com/weathercenter.html) and scroll about halfway down, to the graphic titled "In Close Sea Surface Temperature Analysis." Note that Flossie's predicted path takes her back into slightly warmer water just past South Point. Also not a good development.

[helen]

Just to add to the not so good point. The tradewinds being blocked by Mauna Loa/Manua Kea.

[craigwatanabe]

Some fishermen friends of mine in Kauai tell me there's some algae blooms off their southern shores which indicates warm water conditions. Good for fishing, bad for evading a hurricane. Looks like Flossie could build itself up again to a higher catagory just in time for Kauai...again.:(

[infinitypro]

And beer and cigarettes are a traditional Hawaiian dessert!
Well, beer is, anyway.
:p

I knew I forgot something on the list, gotta call NOE and remind her to buy beer!

[Palolo Joe]

Tonight's 2 a.m. advisory is going to be an important one for Oahu residents.

[craigwatanabe]

Better stock up on D-cells. We ran out of them. I've been recommending to our customers to buy the LED flashlights that use C or AA batteries. With today's LED technology and higher capacity batteries, you can get longer run times with an LED flashlight and because they use less current than incandescent bulbs (whether they're standard, xenon, krypton or halogen) you can use smaller less expensive batteries such as C and AA batteries.

Home Depot carries a wide variety of LED Husky flashlights and a 36-pack of Energizer batteries run just under $12.

[infinitypro]

Better stock up on D-cells. We ran out of them. I've been recommending to our customers to buy the LED flashlights that use C or AA batteries. With today's LED technology and higher capacity batteries, you can get longer run times with an LED flashlight and because they use less current than incandescent bulbs (whether they're standard, xenon, krypton or halogen) you can use smaller less expensive batteries such as C and AA batteries.

Home Depot carries a wide variety of LED Husky flashlights and a 36-pack of Energizer batteries run just under $12.

Hey shouldn't that last sentence post be under the SELLING? :p

We went to Office Depot to get batteries D size batteries, not cheaper just knew they'd have it in stock and it was convenient.

[scrivener]

If any of you is planning to attend commencement exercises for Hawaii Pacific University on Thursday, there's a change in venue:

Due to the unpredictable weather conditions, the Aug. 16 commencement ceremony venue has been changed, as per President Chatt Wright.

The ceremony will now be held at the Blaisdell Concert Hall, 777 Ward Ave., Honolulu, HI 96814. Lot parking charge is $3 for each in and out.

Rehearsal will be held at 9:30 a.m. that morning. The ceremony will be held promptly at 6:30 p.m. that evening.

For more information, call 544-9358. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

source: Jamie Kemp, Administrative Support Operations.

[pzarquon]

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1217/1120972307_c14772e688_m.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/hawaii/1120972307/)

I'm just mesmerized by the animated weather image (http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=nep&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes10&overlay=off) posted earlier. With all the northward activity south of the islands, and that odd bit of southeast moving weather northeast of Kauai (at this moment, it looks like it's actually forming a little wall!), I get the distinct impression that Flossie will be traveling further north than previously estimated. As in, it may do a little island hopping tour!

And that little patch "behind" Flossie sure seems to be getting bigger and redder...

[craigwatanabe]

Like I said in another thread, Kauai is experiencing warmer waters off the southern coast. fishermen reporting algae blooms out there.

[infinitypro]

Just got off of the phone with a friend who lives in the Kealakehe area (Kona) and he said, "Nothing.......yet." But, he relayed that his friends in South Point is in his words, "Getting hit." Anyone in South Point?

[infinitypro]

I get home, and this and all the other Flossie threads are constantly being updated with posts...and all of a sudden, it's quiet. I'm worried, where'd everyone go? :(

[Menehune Man]

Here's a projected course...
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacstorm9/projectedpath_large.html?from=36hr_tropWx_undeclar ed

[helen]

Adding in the 5pm advisory (26).

date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; latitude longitude of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

08/13 11 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
08/13 2 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
08/13 5 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
08/13 8 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
08/13 11 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE
08/14 2 am; #23A; 16.6N 153.5W; 240 miles SSE; 440 miles SE
08/14 5 am; #24; 16.9N 154.1W; 205 miles SSE; 390 miles SE
08/14 8 am; #24A; 17.0N 154.4W; 190 miles SSE; 370 miles SE
08/14 11 am; #25; 17.3N 154.9W; 165 miles S; 340 miles SE
08/14 2pm; #25A; 17.4N 155.2W; 160 miles S; 320 miles SE
08/14 5pm; #26; 17.5N 155.5W; 155 miles S; 305 miles SSE

[timkona]

Just got back from Hookena Beach. Flat surf with a rising tide. Perfect for the keiki. Milky soup cirrus in the upper atmosphere. Further south, somebody had a nice rubbish fire burning to indicate winds up mauka, and 15 miles south. Smoke was going straight up.

Dead calm still in Kealia right now. And dry as a bone.

[Star of Gladness]

On this morning's news, they said commercial airlines would fill their aircraft up with fuel to weight them down on the tarmac when the hurricane approaches. For a cat-2 some distance off-shore perhaps. But if it were a category 3 or higher, sound kinda' iffy that would keep even a larger aircraft such as a 767 (plus fuel) put; not to mention the added fire hazard potential.

I think they usually just fly the airplanes away as logistically its much easier to do. Usually they load them with evacuees as well. The incoming flights get cancelled. Affected airports become ghost towns. I remember during Iniki Lihue airport looked like the fall of Saigon. Hawaiian and Aloha were going around the clock evacuating until the FAA closed the airport.

[Star of Gladness]

Eyewall is re-organinzing

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=HWA&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999

[Pua'i Mana'o]

where IS this b*tch?? Hurry up, already! Lots of rain, but no breeze whatsoever. I *hate* that! ::::::brazen stare towards the SE:::::::

[craigwatanabe]

It's just past 6pm and the weather here in Keaau down by the ocean is about the same all day. Heavy overcast conditions with sporadic rain. But still NO WIND! The shoreline is typical choppy conditions but no waves over five feet yet. Otherwise typical ocean conditions right now.

Been watching KGMB's coverage of Flossie, amazing as it is we still have satellite reception. Usually when it get's this bad (weatherwise) we lose our satellite signal, but right now it's solid.

[joshuatree]

where IS this b*tch?? Hurry up, already! Lots of rain, but no breeze whatsoever. I *hate* that! ::::::brazen stare towards the SE:::::::

She's flossing around? :p

But on a more serious note, isn't it better a dud than a bomb?

[acousticlady]

She's flossing around? :p

But on a more serious note, isn't it better a dud than a bomb?

Oops - see my post under preparations.......

[1stwahine]

My Twitter Friend dcb97 posted a Video on YouTube of a weird pink sunset!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay4MnQKFq-o

Auntie Lynn

[craigwatanabe]

My Twitter Friend dcb97 posted a Video on YouTube of a weird pink sunset!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay4MnQKFq-o

Auntie Lynn

Yep that's Darren Charles of DC in the Mornings on B97, Hawaii's (the Big Island) classic music station...well classic music of the 70's 80's and 90's. Great morning jock.

[tutusue]

Yep that's Darren Charles of DC in the Mornings on B97, Hawaii's (the Big Island) classic music station...well classic music of the 70's 80's and 90's. Great morning jock.
Ok...that explains why I loved that guy's voice and thought if he wasn't a DJ he should be!

[craigwatanabe]

Ok...that explains why I loved that guy's voice and thought if he wasn't a DJ he should be!

And he's such a nice guy too just like Guy Hagi. Both will spend the time to talk to you despite their hectic schedules.

Here's a Youtube video of DC (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C476bDeIB2I&mode=user&search=)in his natural surroundings at KWXX in Hilo

Sorry that's Darrin Carlson.

[mel]

Just got off the phone talking to my folks in Honokaa on the Big Island. At this hour like most of their day, they said nothing significant is happening. Quiet, maybe a scatter of rain every now and then, and so far no significant wind.

As for Mr. D.C. in Hilo, everyone out in Honokaa was disappointed when he jumped ship from KKBG to KNWB. Hilo's KKBG or more popularly known as "KBIG" have an FM repeater in Honokaa, which brings in a clear signal at 106.1. KNWB does not, which means he lost many of his listeners out in the country.

[tutusue]

And he's such a nice guy too just like Guy Hagi. Both will spend the time to talk to you despite their hectic schedules.[...]
And not just talk. Guy did something very, very special for me on his own time. It's chronicled here (http://www.reelserviceshawaii.com/mydad/). Scroll down to the 7/20/03 entry. There's another familiar name in addition to Guy's! ;)

[craigwatanabe]

Well it's 8:45 Pm and it's simply BORING AS HELL out here in Keaau. Waiting for anything to happen and so far just a bit of rain, not even a power outage. My goodness even our wireless internet is running better than ever.

Pretty soon I'll just call it a night and watch the kids for day two of their unexpected two day holiday.

I really feel sorry for those who bought all those plywood sheets. I guess they'll be returning them tomorrow. Nail holes and all:rolleyes:

[LikaNui]

Part of Advisory 26-A, issued at 8pm (and gosh, I wish they'd stop typing in all caps!):

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT...THE SOUTH TIP OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

RECENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED...AN INDICATION THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WEAKENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES.

It may sound pretty good, but we all know it could easily change again. We're not out of the woods yet, but cautious optimism is starting to creep in.

[tikiyaki]

No Eye right now on the satellite pic.

Looks like this hurricane is turning into a HurriCAN'T. :rolleyes:

Let's hope so. Definitely the wimpiest hurricane/storm I've ever been in.

Not inkling of wind, and just some rain, all day.

[mel]

KITV 4 News reports tonight that by the 11PM Bulletin, Flossie will be downgraded to a tropical storm... winds are at 60 mph.

[beaker]

It is dead quiet in Hilo. Dead boring, as well. ...zzZZzzzzZZZZzzzZZZZzzz.....

[tikiyaki]

It is dead quiet in Hilo. Dead boring, as well. ...zzZZzzzzZZZZzzzZZZZzzz.....

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.....you ain't kiddin' :cool:

How many dvd's can one watch in a night ?

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Sue glad I bought 800 D cell batteries and 500 gallons of water. I don't know how I would've survived without it.

Perhaps it's time to start the Flossie Joke Thread ?

[Pomai]

Here she is from the current Pacific wide angle view...

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1277/1124851102_d665a9d6e6_o.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1124851102&size=o)

Once again, here she was on Sunday as a Cat-4..

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1282/1094770271_b6a45243eb_o.jpg

KHON's Justin Cruz commented this evening that "Flossie" is commonly used as a nickname to Florence.

Which has all the similarity to the name Richard having the nickname "D#ck". (rhymes with TICK)

Soooo, any chance they'll ever name a hurricane "D#ck"? Imagine being hit by "D#ck". The jokes on late night TV and at the news stations would be endless. :D

[Palolo Joe]

Perhaps it's time to start the Flossie Joke Thread ?

You, a newcomer to the islands, suggest we start a thread to mock the threat this hurricane poses to us.

While you're on the Big Island, no less.

No respect.

[anapuni808]

You all seem so disappointed that disaster didn't hit the Big Island. Did you stop to think how pathetic that is? Be grateful that many of our friends are OK and things are fine.

[Pomai]

You all seem so disappointed that disaster didn't hit the Big Island. Did you stop to think how pathetic that is? Be grateful that many of our friends are OK and things are fine.While we're not out of the woods yet, things are looking better than expected. I, for one am VERY grateful it's going that way, and not getting worse.

I have my own renovations to finish (yeah Tutu, not done yet!). I don't care to go to mom's place and have to do more fixing up there, which would certainly be the case, as they're right in an inundation zone off Maunalua Bay, where Iniki caused storm surge water damage to the house back in '92.

Plus, not sure about anyone else, but I VALUE having electricity! :)

[mel]

You all seem so disappointed that disaster didn't hit the Big Island. Did you stop to think how pathetic that is? Be grateful that many of our friends are OK and things are fine.

How can you make such a blanket statement? I certainly don't want anything bad to happen to people on the Big Island or anywhere in the state. I have family and friends there who I contacted several times today to get reports on what was happening. I was happy to hear them say "nothing happening" and in relation to Hurricane Flossie, that is indeed good news.

And yes, we are still totally not out of the woods yet. But at this time things are looking really good that we mostly dodged a major bullet here.

Just for the record, here is the 11:00 bulletin (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCPCP2):

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

[GeckoGeek]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW TEARING FLOSSIE APART.

HURRICANE FLOSSIE SURPRISED US BY MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS LONG AS IT DID...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS NOW DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 993 MB AT 0513 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE TOPS OF THE SYSTEM SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS NOW EMERGING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH STRONG SHEAR CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE WE ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING WITH ONLY A REMNANT LOW REMAINING BY 120 HOURS.


Looking at the graphic representation, as far as winds, I'd say it's over. It's no longer a hurricane, the winds are weaker. The >39MPH winds are no longer touching the BI. And it's shifted south. I'm sure the Tropical Storm Warning will be canceled shortly.

Wish I could see the picture as far as rain.

[Miulang]

<yawn> Tuned in to the Weather Channel this morning at 6:30 a.m. Pacific (3:30 a.m. your time...I only got 3 hours' sleep because of that danged cup of white chocolate mocha I had last night at around 7