Abercrombie v. Tanonaka

[pzarquon]

I really didn't think this contest warranted a thread, but then I picked up the phone tonight and found myself ensnared in a push poll (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll)! I haven't gotten a call like that since, sheesh, some mayoral race where Fasi was running (he was the target of the negative push poll, but he won that particular year anyway).

It went something like this: "Who are you voting for in this race?"

"If you knew that Dalton Tanonaka is a really smart guy who's done lots of cool things and has a journalism degree and is really good looking too, would that make you more likely to vote for him?"

"If you knew that Neil Abercrombie was a rude, smelly, Satan-worshiping, puppy-kicking, butt-ugly troll, would that make you less likely to vote for him?"

It was so transparent, and I was bored, so I gave her the exact opposite response she was trained to expect. She was all, "Are you sure? Him? After you learned the truth about Abercrombie's evil ways?" Of course, the pollster wouldn't identify who was sponsoring the poll (not unusual) or even the name of their company (which was a red flag - it sure as hell wasn't Ward Research or SMS!).

A pretty piss poor strategy, in my opinion. Whether or not you like Abercrombie, there's more than enough actual substance with which to draw an adequate contrast without getting sneaky. If the race was between two unknowns, that's one thing, but there's actual stuff out there (Abercrombie's vote on the Iraq defense appropriation the most divisive) to work with, to compare records.

Unless, of course, you don't have a record.

[Linkmeister]

I can't imagine what Tanonaka has to run on, other than "Not Neil," which might be enough for some, but I doubt if it's enough for most.

I remember a conversation at a Super Bowl party about 10 years ago when Neil's name came up, and one of the UH folks there said Abercrombie might be a twit, but he's our twit. (Note: this is a family board, so that's expurgated).

[scrivener]

I know this is SLIGHTLY off-topic, but I have kept my political ranting to a minimum lately, so I think I'll take this moment to point out to anyone reading this that the congressional race is not just Abercrombie and Tanonaka. There's a Libertarian candidate this year named Elyssa Young (who bills herself as an "adult entertainer," but a Google of the other name she lists on the ballot, Erin O'Bryn, will elaborate sufficiently), and while the general impression of so-called "third-party" candidates is that they are fringe-dwellers, Libertarians are not necessarily, contrary to recent evidence, wackos.

So I humbly ask HawaiiThreaders to at least CONSIDER the candidate who gets ignored. Hawaii is a pretty "live and let live" state, and that's what Libertarians are about.

[pzarquon]

Scrivener, I have a reliable record of voting for third-party candidates, even if they are wackos, so I hear you!

For the purposes of general discussion, I think it's was just practical to frame this thread as primarily between the two "mainstream" candidates, though... at least, those were the only two names in the push poll call, which is what prompted me to post.

But thanks for pointing out Elyssa Young's alias. My wife reads this board, so I figured I shouldn't be the one to mention it. :p

"Adult entertainers" in politics are hardly new, though. At least a couple were gunning for the free-for-all governor's race in California, IIRC. Elections are probably better for their business than anything else.

And Link, I wouldn't discount the strengths of a "not Neil" campaign. After all, while more nuanced political awareness would be a good thing for everyone, there are certainly going to be millions of "not Bush" default votes this November... for better or worse.

[Glen Miyashiro]

And Link, I wouldn't discount the strengths of a "not Neil" campaign. After all, while more nuanced political awareness would be a good thing for everyone, there are certainly going to be millions of "not Bush" default votes this November... for better or worse.
And don't forget the ABC vote in the 2002 Hawai'i election: Anyone But Cayetano. :D

[Albert]

There was an amusing item on KHPR yesterday about Tanonaka, how he is going from door-to-door to meet voters. I liked very much what he had to say. If I weren't deliberately abstaining from the election this year, I'd vote for him.

[pzarquon]

Primary Election update! U.S. Representative, District 1 results...

Democratic Primary:

Neil Abercrombie - 72,279 (79.8%)
Blank Votes - 18,279 (20.2%)

Republican Primary:

Dalton Tanonaka - 25,665 (84.7%)
Blank Votes - 4,621 (15.3%)

Libertarian Primary:

Elyssa Young (Erin O'Bryn) - 441 (89.6%)
Blank Votes - 51 (10.4%)

[Linkmeister]

I always wonder about blank votes. Does that denote apathy, misunderstanding of the instructions, desire for another choice, or what? I mean, 20% in the Democratic primary? How does that happen?

[pzarquon]

Because of the party breakdown, you might pick a ballot because of your interest in one race, but have a disinterest (or an actual aversion) to another. I might've grabbed a Democratic ballot to vote for someone I'm following for my state representative race, but that means I have only one choice in the U.S. Representative box.

I might not care to vote, or might not care for that one choice.

Abercrombie did get an exorbitantly high number of blank votes, more than I'd immediately attribute to apathy, disinterest or confusion. If you combine those blank votes with Tanonaka's votes, you'd still come up short, but I hope Abercrombie doesn't get too cocky.

Then again, it's Abercrombie.

[mel]

At this point in time I may give "Blank Vote" my vote in the mayor's race. My mind on the Congressional race is already made up.... long ago.

[helen]

There was an amusing item on KHPR yesterday about Tanonaka, how he is going from door-to-door to meet voters. I liked very much what he had to say. If I weren't deliberately abstaining from the election this year, I'd vote for him.
If you believe in the guy then vote for him. You are not required to vote in the races that you are abstaining from.

[helen]

I always wonder about blank votes. Does that denote apathy, misunderstanding of the instructions, desire for another choice, or what? I mean, 20% in the Democratic primary? How does that happen?
It could be a lot of reasons. One might be is the voter is voting Democrat for some other race where there are lot of choices and since the 1st Congressional District only had one person it didn't matter if you voted or not.

[craigwatanabe]

You like hear one good joke: Neil Abercrombie supporting bringing back the military draft! Dat suckin braddah was so anti war back in the 70's I wen vote that buggah in office to shake up dat old fogey congress, Auwe dat buggah went cut his ponytail and became part of the walking dead, now he like bring back da draft?

[Konaguy]

starbulletin.com/2004/09/22/news/story9.html

[pzarquon]

This is the same draft bill Adri1456 caught wind of and posted about in May (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=783). Note that it surfaced last year, and never even got a hearing, in either the House or Senate. While the Dems were keeping a straight face, it did smell like an ill-advised gambit to see if the White House and Republican lawmakers had the guts to put America's young men and women where their mouth was (recall the supposedly purely procedural draft board notices (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-11-10-selective-service_x.htm)).

"If you're going to make worrisome rumblings about bringing back the draft, then let's put it on the table and talk about it." Once it was put on paper and sent to congress, obviously, no one wanted to play.

That said, from the Republican standpoint, Abercrombie is definitely weak on the war. I give the guy credit, voting his principles, even when faced with the post-9/11 haze of drum-beating "unity." His minority view isn't quite as minor as it was, but he definitely still sticks out.

It's his primary weakness, so without a doubt, that's where Tanonaka's going to keep picking.

[pzarquon]

Illegal campaign loans alleged (http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Sep/28/ln/ln06a.html)
Derrick DePledge, Honolulu Advertiser, Sept. 28, 2004
The manager of Dalton Tanonaka's unsuccessful run for lieutenant governor in 2002 has filed a complaint alleging that Tanonaka hid loans to his campaign to circumvent legal limits. Ed Nishioka, president of Professional Results Inc., who has also sued Tanonaka over payment for media work, filed the complaint with the state Campaign Spending Commission on Friday.
Ed Nishioka's outfit, Professional Results (http://www.professionalresults.com/), also publishes Hawaiian Hard Drive (http://www.hawaiianharddrive.com/).

[pzarquon]

Following up on my post on the push poll a couple of weeks ago, Tanonaka's campaign website does mention a poll by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies. I can only surmise that this was the outfit behind the fake survey.

Notably, Neil Newhouse is a prominent pollster but not an independent one. He's appeared on CNN and has been interviewed elsewhere and is described as a "Republican pollster (http://www.google.com/search?q=%22Republican+pollster+neil+newhouse)." And a quick search for news about the company, POS, turned up this article (http://www.motherjones.com/news/special_reports/1996/05/kaplan.html) on how another push poll's widely touted results were suspect.

Meanwhile, front and center is a photo of Tanonaka with Denis Hastert. I'm not sure if highlighting the affiliation will be an asset or a liability (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/19/hastert.remark/) to the campaign.

[mel]

I always wonder about blank votes.

I've turned in ballots for Mr./Ms. "Blank Vote" several times over the years mainly because I am not satisfied with any of the candidates who are running for the race in question. Right now, "blank vote" is still my choice for the mayor's race and the possibility of casting another blank vote in this race looms too.

[pzarquon]

Abercrombie's name made the papers across the country this morning, as part of the coverage of the bizzare draft bill (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=783). Mike Perry this morning is having fun with the "he voted for it before he voted against it" line. The measure no one really wanted succeeded in its actual purpose, at least, in getting people to think about the possibility of the return of the draft... one that could include women, and be for agencies other than the military.

Meanwhile, I noticed that Abercrombie is actually campaigning, at least on television. They're strange ads, featuring Abercrombie and Inouye sitting at a talk-show table, being chummy as they "discuss" issues and accomplishments. So far I've seen a "partners" ad (which seems to end with Inouye making some inaudible crack about Abercrombie's hair!), and a "support our troops" ad (a direct response to Tanonaka's main line of attack).

Since both Abercrombie and Inouye appear in the ads, it appears they took the cautious route and gave us the "campaign finance line" from both of them. So the ad ends with, "I'm Neil Abercrombie, and I approve this message... I'm Dan Inouye, and I approve this message."

[Miulang]

Meanwhile, I noticed that Abercrombie is actually campaigning, at least on television. They're strange ads, featuring Abercrombie and Inouye sitting at a talk-show table, being chummy as they "discuss" issues and accomplishments...
Since both Abercrombie and Inouye appear in the ads, it appears they took the cautious route and gave us the "campaign finance line" from both of them. So the ad ends with, "I'm Neil Abercrombie, and I approve this message... I'm Dan Inouye, and I approve this message."

I don't think that's so strange. It's actually quite innovative and fiscally responsible (and in the advertising world, that's called co-operative advertising or marketing where each participant shares in the cost). At least the Dem's are getting more bang for their buck this way, and Abercrombie can ride on Dan the Man's popularity since there is some subtle neural programming going on that implies that if you like Dan you should also like Neil.

Miulang

[pzarquon]

Congressional candidate faces criminal probe of 2002 campaign (http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/14/news/story6.html)
The investigation focuses on what a state panel says are suspicious loans to Dalton Tanonaka
Rick Daysog, Honolulu Star-Bulletin, Oct. 14, 2004
Less than a month before the general election, congressional candidate Dalton Tanonaka is facing a criminal investigation of his 2002 campaign. But the local Republican said the investigation is based on a smear by his former campaign manager. The state Campaign Spending Commission voted 3-2 yesterday to refer its investigation into Tanonaka's unsuccessful campaign for lieutenant governor to city Prosecutor Peter Carlisle for a criminal investigation.
Prosecutor to look into Tanonaka campaign complaint (http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/13/br/br02p.html)
Honolulu Advertiser, October 13, 2004
The state Campaign Spending Commission today voted to refer a complaint that Dalton Tanonaka disguised private loans to his 2002 campaign for lieutenant governor to the prosecutor for a criminal investigation... Bob Watada, the commission's executive director, said he believed the Tanonaka loan activity was "intentional, knowing and reckless."

[BKHale2007]

As today's Beltway Boys (FNC) drew to a close, Fred Barnes mentioned Dalton Tanonaka as a politician to watch, i.e., he's up-and-coming. This also counts as a passing mention of Hawaii in the non-local media (see Mixed Plate).

[Konaguy]

I hope the criminal charges against Dalton Tanonaka are not true.
I was planning on voting for him lieu of Neil.

[Miulang]

As today's Beltway Boys (FNC) drew to a close, Fred Barnes mentioned Dalton Tanonaka as a politician to watch, i.e., he's up-and-coming. This also counts as a passing mention of Hawaii in the non-local media (see Mixed Plate).
I saw the show, too, and the first thing that came to mind was, "How much did the Republican party have to pay Fred Barnes for that endorsement?" I mean, come on. How many people in Hawai'i would be watching that kind of show at the time of day that it probably aired in your market? And how many viewers throughout the rest of the US would even know who he was running against, or care?:D

Miulang

[Linkmeister]

I see the standard mud-slinging tactics of the national Republican party in Tanonaka's new ads, too. Abercrombie "doesn't support the troops." I suspect that might be a deliberate misconstruing of a vote on how the funding was to be done. If the House behaved like the Senate, there were initial attempts to roll back Bush's tax cuts to fund the defense authorization bill; when those failed, Abercrombie may have voted against the bill since it just added to the deficit instead.

[pzarquon]

I wonder if Fred Barnes knows about the criminal probe referral out of the CSC? Depending on how messy that gets, I'm sure a lot of the folks who've stood up and backed Tanonaka (Linda Lingle, Pat Saiki) are going to have to keep their distance. In fact, I wonder if those ads are still running?

Because the ad that is running is pretty embarassing. A grainy, over-slowed clip of Abercrombie throwing a temper tantrum? It's not like the people who already have a poor opinion of Abercrombie are going to be surprised, and for those curious about Tanonaka, the whole ad just comes across as ugly.

The ad also came out after the infamous draft bill to which it refers, which was introduced in protest by Abercrombie, was pulled up and killed for good.

Wonder how much airing those ads during prime-time local news costs?

[Linkmeister]

Wonder how much airing those ads during prime-time local news costs?

Same question I asked about Gabbard's ads. As yet, none of our tv folks on this board have seen it, I guess.

[pzarquon]

Funding questions dog GOP’s Tanonaka (http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/19/news/index2.html)
Nelson Daranciang, Honolulu Star-Bulletin, October 19, 2004
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington, D.C., filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing Tanonaka of hiding the source of $69,000 he loaned to his campaign. The complaint said Tanonaka does not have the financial resources to make such a loan, having almost no income and debts of between $160,000 and $365,000, according to his financial disclosure statement.

Tanonaka faces federal complaint (http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/19/ln/ln07p.html)
Derrick DePledge, Honolulu Advertiser, October 19, 2004
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which campaigns and helps raise money for Democrats, filed a complaint against Tanonaka with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Tanonaka did not have the financial means to loan his campaign $69,000. Tanonaka is running against U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawai'i.

[Miulang]

So now you have the candidates of both parties being accused of financial hanky panky. What are you voters of that district gonna do? Vote for the one who has cheated less? :eek:

Eeesh.

Miulang

http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/23/news/story12.html

[pzarquon]

Results from the latest Star-Bulletin/KITV poll (http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/25/news/story2.html):The poll shows Democrat Neil Abercrombie with a 17 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Dalton Tanonaka in the 1st Congressional District race... Of 300 respondents, 52 percent said they would vote for Abercrombie, 35 percent said Tanonaka, 12 percent were undecided and 1 percent picked neither candidate.
Results from the latest Honolulu Advertiser poll (http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/25/ln/ln03p.html):Abercrombie leads former television and newspaper journalist Dalton Tanonaka 62 percent to 28 percent among likely voters in urban Honolulu... According to the poll, 7.5 percent of urban Honolulu voters had not yet settled on a candidate.

[pzarquon]

I spent last night (http://www.flickr.com/photos/hawaii/sets/27754/) with my middle son in the hospital (long story), but it gave me the dubious opportunity to watch public access TV... specifically, the debate between Neil Abercrombie and Elyssa Young (Erin O'Bryn), moderated by Bob Rees.

For having very different ideas, the two candidates got along pretty well. Abercrombie was a gentleman, and Young was self-assured and articulate.

I'm fine with Abercrombie being reelected, but I'm also proud to note that (scrivener, you listening?) the "third-party" candidate in this particular race has gotten two votes (so far) out of our household.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/1065564_05c8fd1754_t.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/hawaii/1065564/)

Apparently, Dalton Tanonaka was a no-show. And, according to Abercrombie and Young, it's the man's second absence. Rees said Tanonaka was calling him almost daily to assure him he would be present and to be certain that Abercrombie would be there as well. And Abercrombie and Young joked about how the two of them are "getting the dance down" already.

[pzarquon]

Early results (absentee and early voting) fresh out of the State Capitol shows Abercrombie's 64 percent leading Tanonaka's 33 percent. Elyssa Young clocks in with a little under 3 percent (1,464)... certainly something for her to smile about.

Of course, these numbers are technically with zero out of 297 precincts reporting. We'll see how returns for today look in a few hours.