Inouye - Cavasso Senate race

[Linkmeister]

Tonight at 5:00 and again at 6:00 on KITV News they ran clips of Cavasso and Inouye answering questions about the deficit and the draft. During Cavasso's answer about the draft ("No," he said, as did Inouye, although Dan hedged his bet by saying circumstances should dictate, which makes sense to me) he managed to throw in a crack about Inouye "voting for gay marriage," which I suppose means he voted against the proposed Constitutional Amendment, like the majority.

The Republicans sure do like those wedge issues, don't they?

[BKHale2007]

I heard a Cam Cavasso radio ad yesterday for the first time. He has an uphill battle and is counting on his socially conservative views to distinguish himself from Inouye.

[mel]

While I agree with some of Cavasso's platform there is no way that he will beat Mr. Inouye. The liberals here need not worry about this race.

[pzarquon]

I agree. My first reaction to the thread title was, "What race?" :)

That said, Inouye leaves a pretty big footprint to fill, and when his retirement inevitably comes, I worry that there'll be nothing but a giant sucking sound for a while... like when a black hole developes, the sheer effect of the absence will be almost impossible to overcome.

And no, Brian Evans (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=2196) wouldn't stand a chance.

[Miulang]

I agree. My first reaction to the thread title was, "What race?" :)

That said, Inouye leaves a pretty big footprint to fill, and when his retirement inevitably comes, I worry that there'll be nothing but a giant sucking sound for a while... like when a black hole developes, the sheer effect of the absence will be almost impossible to overcome.

And no, Brian Evans (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=2196) wouldn't stand a chance.
My guess is that when Dan the Man announces his retirement in 8 years, if she hasn't been snatched up by the Bushies and doesn't have any real skeletons discovered in her closet in the meantime, Linda Lingle is a shoe-in as the Republican contender for that seat. Maybe by then Mufi will want to move into the US Senate, too.

Miulang

[mel]

Senator Inouye retiring? You must all be kidding here. That guy is going to "retire" in the same exact way that Rep. Patsy Mink and Sen. Spark Matsunaga did....in a nice box that will go to Punchbowl Memorial Cemetery.

[Miulang]

Senator Inouye retiring? You must all be kidding here. That guy is going to "retire" in the same exact way that Rep. Patsy Mink and Sen. Spark Matsunaga did....in a nice box that will go to Punchbowl Memorial Cemetery.

I think they call that "dying with your boots on". Anyway, I think Dan the Man is trying to beat Strom Thurmond's record as oldest seated Senator. At least Dan is still able to stay awake for the most important roll calls. Strom had to be kicked under the table and wheeled into the Senate during his final years.

Miulang

[mel]

I think if Rep. Ed Case plays his cards right and doesn't get too greedy in 2006, he is in a good position of someday "inheriting" one of Hawaii's 2 Senatorial seats.

[pzarquon]

I think if Rep. Ed Case plays his cards right and doesn't get too greedy in 2006, he is in a good position of someday "inheriting" one of Hawaii's 2 Senatorial seats.I know this is a simple Political Science 101 question, but sadly given my journalism roots it should be obvious that math and numbers aren't my strong suit. So help me figure it out.

Senate seats come up every six years. I guess Inouye and Akaka are staggered, so Inouye has to run in 2004 and 2010 (he'll be 86 then), and Akaka would run in 2006 and 2012.

House seats come up every two years, so for Ed that's 2006 and 2008, and so on. So if his objective was to make the jump between the House and Senate (has that ever happened for Hawaii folks?), he'd have to wait to see what Akaka's plans are in 2006, or Inouye's plans are in 2010.

Same-party successions are tricky, since in Hawaii, Democrats will have to walk that fine line between readying for a race and not appearing as if they're eager to unseat a respected incumbent. The Republicans, meanwhile, can groom, groom, groom all they like, and express aspirations openly.

Depending on what Lingle's ultimate record is, if it came down to Lingle or Case to replace Akaka in 2006 or (presuming Lingle is reelected instead) to replace Inouye in 2010... I'd have to say it'd be close.

[Miulang]

Depending on what Lingle's ultimate record is, if it came down to Lingle or Case to replace Akaka in 2006 or (presuming Lingle is reelected instead) to replace Inouye in 2010... I'd have to say it'd be close.

I still think if Bush wins re-election that Lingle would say Aloha to Hawai'i in a New York minute.

P.S. You know what else is kind of interesting? Since everybody's making such a brouhaha about the candidates' ohana, how come no one's asking how come Linda never talks about any significant other in her life? ;) Her official bios say nothing about her family, except that she started the Moloka'i Free Press and graduated cum laude from a journalism school.

Mulang

[mel]

Same-party successions are tricky

Yes it is for the Democrats as you have indicated. One thing not taken into account in your assessment is the possible death during term of either Hawaii senator. In that case I think the Governor (can't remember who does this) has to appoint someone from within the same party to succeed a deceased senator to serve out the term until the next election.

As I vaguely recall, when Sen. Matsunaga died, I think Rep. Akaka was appointed to fill that seat. He subsequently won it outright in the 1994 election (against Pat Saiki).

Having no idea who Governor Lingle would appoint should one of our Senators suddenly expire, my bets would be on Case over Abercrombie as a possible appointee. Of course Lingle being a Republican, she could put in a Democrat member of much weaker political stature so that a Republican could take that person on in the next election cycle. This however is risky as anyone who is appointed would have the benefit of being the current incumbent.

Anyway, this whole thing is only speculative. I am sure both Sen. Inouye and Akaka will live for another 5 years at least before such scenarios manifest themselves.

[Linkmeister]

Mel, you said In that case I think the Governor (can't remember who does this) has to appoint someone from within the same party The Governor does indeed do the appointing, but there's no requirement that the appointee be from the same party (unless Hawai'i has a law about it).

[pzarquon]

Early results (absentee and early voting) fresh out of the State Capitol shows Inouye's 78 percent leading Cavasso's 20 percent. Of course, these numbers are technically with zero out of 297 precincts reporting, so we'll see how returns for today look in a few hours. I don't think it'll get any less lopsided in this race, however. :)