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  #1  
Old August 5th, 2009, 01:45 AM
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Default Hurricane Felicia

Per zztype on Facebook...
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  #2  
Old August 5th, 2009, 02:16 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

It's too soon to be scared, but not too soon to be concerned. This is one to watch, fer sure!
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  #3  
Old August 5th, 2009, 09:36 AM
Peshkwe Peshkwe is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

This is a good site for watching things develop, it gives a more complete visual of how the winds are moving:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
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  #4  
Old August 5th, 2009, 10:00 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

That's some sphincter-clenching imagery over there. Like watching the bullpen warming up and glancing our way.
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin...r/goesfull.jpg

Theory is that the water to the east of the Big Island is still cold enough, and the trades still strong enough this time of year, to slow this one down and tear it apart. But Felicia sure is awful far north for being that far east. And if this is August then I'd sure hate to see September when the trades are weaker.

There are certain women's names whose mention triggers fond long-term memories for me. One by one, the world's meteorological agencies are ruining a lot of these cherished recollections by replacing them with new ones...
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  #5  
Old August 5th, 2009, 02:16 PM
Bobinator Bobinator is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
There are certain women's names whose mention triggers fond long-term memories for me. One by one, the world's meteorological agencies are ruining a lot of these cherished recollections by replacing them with new ones...
If they use "Matilda", I'm gonna freak out!
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  #6  
Old August 5th, 2009, 02:50 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

According to the NOAA list of storm names, Matilda is not on the list.

Hopefully this storm will lose it's strength or move off before hitting the state.
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  #7  
Old August 5th, 2009, 04:32 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

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Originally Posted by helen View Post
Hopefully this storm will lose it's strength or move off before hitting the state.
Looks like it's intensifying at the moment, according to this as of about 15 minutes ago:

Hurricane Felicia intensifying, with winds now up to 125 mph

Hurricane Felicia, already a Category 3 storm, has intensified as it follows a westward path across the Pacific.
At 11 a.m. Hawaii time, satellite imagery indicated that Felicia now has maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph. That's up from 115 mph at 5 this morning.
Should Felicia's maximum sustained winds reach 131 mph, the storm would become a Category 4 system, one step below the maximum rating.
Felicia is about 2,280 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and moving northwest at about 12 mph.
It is expected to enter the Central Pacific Hawaii waters sometime Saturday.
The hurricane center's five-day projected track puts the center of the storm about 125 miles off Honokaa on the Big Island by 11 a.m. Monday morning.

(...)

To see a satellite loop of the storms, go to:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/d...AC_IR_loop.gif


It all depends on the track and the water temperature and the upper-level winds. Keep your fingers crossed.
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  #8  
Old August 6th, 2009, 04:55 PM
Kalalau Kalalau is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

A forecast I saw predicted 15 ft. waves on exposed beaches, so I am wondering what will happen on the O'ahu sand bar, will Lanikai get waves? Does it ever? The storm is forecast to weaken a lot by the time it could effect Hawai'i. A friend is surfing south Baja right now, even though the storm is moving away from there now he still ought to be getting some good waves.
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  #9  
Old August 6th, 2009, 05:04 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

I hope it does blow itself out. This is a very strange season! Usually its our coast glued to the TV and watching the Gulf. I hope this season passes by without any major storms to EITHER coast.
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  #10  
Old August 6th, 2009, 11:48 PM
JohnKSmith JohnKSmith is offline
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Exclamation AP: Hawaii Hurricane response test reveals shortfalls

A powerful hurricane would shut down Hawaiian Electric's grid for 30 days. Streets as far inland as Beretania and the H-1 freeway would be flooded. Debris would block roads. And homes would be damaged across the island of Oahu, if a powerful hurricane struck Oahu, officials said.

The imagined scenario officials have been working with calls for a Category 4 hurricane -- meaning a storm with sustained winds over 130 mph -- to make landfall at Kapolei. The scenario had 130 deaths, 2,000 injuries, and many more missing.

LINK: READ MORE
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  #11  
Old August 7th, 2009, 12:49 PM
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Red face Re: Hurricane Felicia

Hurricane Felicia Weakening Fast
UPDATE: August 07, 2009 6:35AM
Quote:
Felicia has weakened to a Category 2 storm far out in the Pacific. Winds are now sustained at about 100 mph with higher gusts. The center of the storm is about 1280 miles east of Hilo and moving west-northwest at 13 mph. The latest satellite photos show the eye of the storm has deteriorated, a good indication that the storm is losing steam and becoming less and less efficient. Forecasters expect felicia to continue weakening and be downgraded to a tropical storm by Saturday.
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  #12  
Old August 7th, 2009, 07:42 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Just saw the local news and weather here in L.A. (around 5:30 PM PDT), and they are saying that it is expected to weaken a LOT before it gets there. Possibly the Big Island could get some rain, and some winds, but nothing hurricane-force. I hope they are right!
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  #13  
Old August 8th, 2009, 02:21 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Don't let down your guard just yet. According to this latest report:

Felicia's winds increase to 105 mph as it nears Isles

Hurricane Felicia has strengthened a bit as satellite imagery shows it has become slightly more organized and winds have increased to 105 mph. The strengthening is expected to be short-lived and Felicia is forecast to weaken over the weekend.
At 5 p.m., Felicia was a Category 2 storm about 1,115 miles east of the Big Island and moving west-northwest at 14 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the storm's center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles.
Forecasters don't expect Felicia to be a hurricane by the time it arrives, but they caution that the system still could bring heavy rain, strong winds and high surf.
Stores around the state reported brisk sales of emergency supplies yesterday, as Felicia continued to churn its way toward the Islands.
"It's an extraordinarily strong system right now," Richard Knabb, deputy director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said last night. "The good news is that it's not going to be that strong when it gets to us. But that should not cause us to let our guard down. Even as it weakens ... it could still be a big rain-maker."
The state could start feeling Felicia's effects by late Sunday, though forecasters say heavy rains and strong winds might not arrive until Monday or Tuesday, depending on how fast Felicia is traveling.


Click the link for the rest of the story.
Interesting that it not only strengthened but also picked up speed. It's forward motion was 10mph yesterday and up to 14mph today. The eye had started to break up yesterday but re-formed today. Not good. Nor is the current track, which has it pointed directly at Hilo.
A lot is going to depend on the luck of upper-level wind shear.
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  #14  
Old August 8th, 2009, 11:19 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Quote:
Originally Posted by LikaNui View Post
Interesting that it not only strengthened but also picked up speed. It's forward motion was 10mph yesterday and up to 14mph today. The eye had started to break up yesterday but re-formed today. Not good. Nor is the current track, which has it pointed directly at Hilo.
A lot is going to depend on the luck of upper-level wind shear.
My spouse the meteorologist says "diurnal heating".

Apparently the storm spins down overnight because of colder water and wind shear, but heats up during the day's sunshine despite the water's cooling effect. Then it spins down again at night. So instead of a steady glide slope down it's more of a roller-coaster oscillation along the dropping glide slope.

This morning there's no eye:
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin...ac_trop_ir.jpg

At "only" 90 MPH winds and a 15 MPH SOA it's moving a little faster, but I've read that picking the center of a storm without an eye is fairly difficult and controversial.
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/ep0809.gif

The Hurricane Hunters are flying:
http://www.starbulletin.com/news/200...ml?mobile=true
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Last edited by Nords; August 8th, 2009 at 11:28 AM.
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  #15  
Old August 9th, 2009, 12:22 PM
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Default Huricane Felicia

Huricane Felicia

My friend in Hawaii tells me that this hurricane will be arriving on Tuesday according to the weather people and will be bringing a lot of rain. So batten down the hatches my friends.
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  #16  
Old August 9th, 2009, 12:29 PM
Leo Lakio Leo Lakio is offline
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Default Re: Huricane Felicia

Thread on Felicia already exists here, Barry.
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  #17  
Old August 9th, 2009, 12:30 PM
Leo Lakio Leo Lakio is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Downgraded to "tropical storm" status this morning - keeping fingers crossed that you folks will continue to be spared the worst hits of any storms.
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  #18  
Old August 9th, 2009, 01:25 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Uh-oh. I'm flying back home from Los Angeles tuesday night. How do y'all think the hurricane will affect my arrival?
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  #19  
Old August 9th, 2009, 01:38 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

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Originally Posted by turtlegirl View Post
Uh-oh. I'm flying back home from Los Angeles tuesday night. How do y'all think the hurricane will affect my arrival?
You might hit some turbulence, TG.
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  #20  
Old August 9th, 2009, 01:50 PM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtlegirl View Post
Uh-oh. I'm flying back home from Los Angeles tuesday night. How do y'all think the hurricane will affect my arrival?
Depending how strong what now is categorized as Tropical Storm Felicia, your flight may be postponed until further notice. Based on NOAA's current tracking, she should be centered over Oahu right around Tuesday night. Not a good time to be flying in, don't you think?

Now there's two more increasingly organized formations in the east Pacific spinning off the southern tip of Baja and Mexico with the potential of becoming a tropical depression.
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  #21  
Old August 9th, 2009, 04:37 PM
Kalalau Kalalau is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

This storm seems to have lost its punch because prevailing winds from the west destroyed it. From Iniki we know Hawai'i does lie in warm enough water to support full strength hurricanes. At least these days we have satellite weather info to give warning enough to prepare and or to evacuate. And, don't pilots usually steer around dangerous weather?
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  #22  
Old August 9th, 2009, 07:26 PM
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Exclamation Re: Hurricane Felicia

We still have to be careful. So many hurricanes which have passed South of the Big Island have turned North/NE and hit us badly: Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), and Iniki (1992) all circled back - almost as if the trade winds hitting Hawaiian Islands creates a vacuum into which the storms are drawn.

Be Prepared! (and hope and pray it misses).

See THIS page on Hawaiian Hurricanes.
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  #23  
Old August 10th, 2009, 02:13 AM
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Red face hope tropical depression passes by us

hi,im hoping tropical depression passes by our island and move's out to the pacific ocean and fizzle's out.

well thank's for your time
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  #24  
Old August 10th, 2009, 03:39 AM
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Default Re: hope tropical depression passes by us

Hi Sansei...the storm is being discussed here.
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  #25  
Old August 10th, 2009, 07:16 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Felicia

Keeping my fingers crossed for my fellow HT'ers and my friends in the 808!
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