Over-Under: General Election 2006

[scrivener]

The election is a few days away, so let's have a little fun predicting the results. For each proposition, pick "over" or "under" the number I offer. We'll post results sometime late Tuesday or sometime Wednesday.

1. Voter turnout.
   Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.
   
   
2. Governor.
   Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.
   
   
3. U.S. Senate.
   Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.
   
   
4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
   Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 58%.
   
   
5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
   Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.
   
   
6. State House of Representatives.
   Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10 (currently, there are 10 Republican and 41 Democrats with 2 Republicans running unopposed).
   
   
7. State House of Representatives.
   Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 5 (note that some incumbents lost in the primary election; this number is for the incumbents still in the running).
   
   
8. State Board of Education.
   Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 13%.
   
   
9. State Constitution.
   Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.
   
   
10. State Constitution.
    Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5.
    
    
11. County of Honolulu Charter.
    Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Submit your predictions before the first printouts!

(sorry, neighbor-island peeps. if you would like to post some over/under lines for your own county charters, please do!)

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

welll....these numbers are quite high, so I'm going to bid $1, Bob. And that's my final answer.

[damontucker]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

1. Voter turnout.
Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 38%.

2. Governor.
Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 73%.

3. U.S. Senate.
Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 65%.

4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 54%.

5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 10%.

6. State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10

7. State House of Representatives.
Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 2
8. State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 8%.

9. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.

10. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): ?.

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: ?.

[scrivener]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Okay, the idea of the over-under is just to determine if the actual number will be over or under the number I offer. In that first question, for example, if you think voter turnout will be greater than 42%, you say "Over." If not, you say, "Under."

[damontucker]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

For once I get concise... and then I find out all da buggah want is over unders

[pzarquon]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

1. Voter turnout: 42% - Over.
2. Governor: Percent cast for Lingle: 67% - Under.
3. U.S. Senate: Percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75% - Under.
4. U.S. House, 2nd District: Percent cast for Hirono: 58% - Over.
5. U.S. House, 1st District: Percent cast for Hough: 20% - Under.
6. State House: Number of Republican seats: 10 - Under.
7. State House of Representatives: Incumbents losing: 5 - Under.
8. State Board of Education: Percent cast for DeRego: 13% - Under!
9. State Constitution: Number that will pass: 2.5 - Under.
10. State Constitution: Agree with Perry and Price: 3.5 - Under.
11. County of Honolulu Charter: Number that will pass: 5 - Under.

[Konaguy]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Voter turnout.Under
Governor. Over
U.S. Senate. Under
U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District. Over
U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District. Under
State House of Representatives. Over
State House of Representatives. Over
State House of Representatives. Over
State Board of Education. Under
State Constitution. Under
State Constitution. Under

[scrivener]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

1. Voter turnout.
   Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 42%.
   UNDER
   
2. Governor.
   Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 67%.
   UNDER
   
3. U.S. Senate.
   Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 75%.
   OVER
   
4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
   Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: 58%.
   OVER
   
5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
   Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: 20%.
   UNDER
   
6. State House of Representatives.
   Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: 10 (currently, there are 10 Republican and 41 Democrats with 2 Republicans running unopposed).
   UNDER
   
7. State House of Representatives.
   Of 41 incumbents on the general ballot, number who will lose their seats: 5 (note that some incumbents lost in the primary election; this number is for the incumbents still in the running).
   OVER
   
8. State Board of Education.
   Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 13%.
   UNDER
   
9. State Constitution.
   Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2.5.
   UNDER
   
10. State Constitution.
    Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5.
    OVER
    
11. County of Honolulu Charter.
    Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.
    UNDER

This was pretty tough; I set the line right where I think the outcome should be in most cases, so picking over or under felt weird.

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Scrivener, how did you come up with those values for each race? I am curious.

[scrivener]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Most of it was gut feeling; there was a little bit of research on some of them, but not very much. 42% if the voter turnout for the primary, so for that one I'm just asking if the turnout will be greater or smaller for the general.

[Pua'i Mana'o]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Most of it was gut feeling...

bwah! O, such an economist!

[ttamasese]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Randy Iwase
118,000 - Votes from Primary
10,000 - Votes from William Aila supporters (out of 40,000)
43,000 - Votes from HGEA
13,000 - Votes from HSTA
12,000 - Votes from Local 5
+ 5,000 - Votes from Akaka and Inouye supporters
_______
201,000 votes


Linda Lingle
1998 vs. Cayetano - 199,000 votes - Spent $2,100,000 - Lots of Buzz
2002 vs. Hirono - 197,000 votes - Spent $5,400,000 - Buzz
2006 vs. Iwase - 196,500 votes - Spent $5,800,000 - No Buzz, Republican Party unpopular, Lingle loves Bush hehe.

My prediction for Hawaii 2006 Gubernatorial Election:
Iwase - 201,000 - 50%
Lingle - 196,500 - 49%
Other/Blank - 1%

Randy Iwase wins.

[DavidThi808]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

I don't know about the rest but I predect Akaka/Thielen will be just a couple of points different.

[mel]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

Hell as long as this is being posted for fun, I might as well throw in my predictions. I am by far no expert in predicting this kind of stuff, but here goes:

1. Voter turnout. Registered voters who cast ballots in the 2006 General Election: 45%.

2. Governor. Of votes cast for either Linda Lingle or Randall Iwase, percent cast for Lingle: 71% for the Governor or hopefully anything over 51%.

3. U.S. Senate. Of total votes (not counting blank votes), percent cast for Dan Akaka: 70%.

4. U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
Of votes cast for either Mazie Hirono or Bob Hogue, percent cast for Hirono: a hopeful 49%.

5. U.S. House of Representatives, 1st District.
Of votes cast for either Neil Abercrombie or Richard Hough, percent cast for Hough: I'm probably one of the 22%.

6. State House of Representatives.
Number of Republican seats when the dust settles: A hopeful 12.

7. State Senate. (I am slightly changing this because I think there is supposed to be a State Senate choice here, if not don't count my response).
Of 25 incumbents in office (12 or 13 seats were up this year), number who will lose their seats: 2 (no incumbents in the Senate lost in the primary, 1 retired, 1 [Hogue] ran for higher office; others who ran in Congress #2 did not have to resign their seats). I think Keoki Leong will win the race for Bob Hogue's seat and possibly Mike Gabbard winning the seat vacated by retiring Senator Brian Kanno. 2 Republicans + 1 Hemmings + 3 already elected = an optimistic 6 in the Senate. I could be wrong by -2. In the end Democrats will still hold majority. The organization of the Senate will be interesting to watch in the days after tomorrow.


8. State Board of Education.
Of votes cast for either John Penebacker or Kris DeRego, percent cast for DeRego: 20%.

9. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 2 I don't get the 2.5. How can half an amendment pass?

10. State Constitution.
Of 5 proposed amendments, number that will agree with Perry and Price's recommendations (they have advised listeners to vote yes, yes, no, no, no): 3.5. I'm going with NO NO NO YES YES.

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Actually there are 12 of them. All I hope is that the ones I voted NO don't pass.

[scrivener]

Re: Over-Under: General Election 2006

11. County of Honolulu Charter.
Of 11 proposed amendments, number that will pass: 5.

Actually there are 12 of them. All I hope is that the ones I voted NO don't pass.

There are 12 things to vote on, but one of them is really a "if the one above passes, which would you prefer?" situation. It won't really pass or not pass all by itself.