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pzarquon
August 29th, 2007, 05:13 PM
With the NFL season finally upon us, I thought it'd be fun to have another HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em game. Scrivener did a fantastic job last year (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthread.php?t=10097), handling the near impossible task of tracking everyone's picks and performance by hand, including processing more than a few last minute pick changes and a fair amount of questions.

This time, I'd like to suggest letting a tried-and-true online system take care of the grunt work. Specifically, Yahoo! Sports. To join and start picking your teams:

PM me (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/private.php?do=newpm&u=3) or e-mail me (ryanozawa@gmail.com) for the password.
Click here (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/) to sign up at Yahoo! Sports.
Join the "Private Group" with ID#49048 with the password provided.

Yahoo! will then handle setting up the weekly match ups, collecting our picks, enforcing pick deadlines, and breaking ties, and everyone will be able to see how we're doing in near real-time. We'll of course post weekly results/standings here at HT for everyone not registered in the Yahoo! Sports system.

While this requires a Yahoo! ID, if you don't have one you don't need to give up your online anonymity to play. You can set up a throw-away account just to participate in the HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em contest, play along, then... throw it away!

This thread will be for discussing the HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em contest specifically. Who you picked, why, and the occasional bout of smack talk. Discussion of NFL teams and games in general this season should hopefully sprout up naturally over in Player's Place (http://www.hawaiithreads.com/forumdisplay.php?f=14).

So, let's play! You have until Thursday, Sept. 6 at 2:25 pm to register and pick your first week's teams!

pzarquon
August 29th, 2007, 05:34 PM
First week matchups! My totally arbitrary (think dartboard, chimpanzee, or blindfolded toddler) are in bold:

INDIANAPOLIS v. New Orleans
BUFFALO v. Denver
WASHINGTON v. Miami
CLEVELAND v. Pittsburgh
JACKSONVILLE v. Tennessee
HOUSTON v. Kansas City
GREEN BAY v. Philadelphia
ST. LOUIS v. Carolina
MINNESOTA v. Atlanta
NEW YORK (NYJ) v. New England
SEATTLE v. Tampa Bay
OAKLAND v. Detroit
SAN DIEGO v. Chicago
DALLAS v. New York
CINCINNATI v. Baltimore
SAN FRANCISCO v. Arizona

ploal5333
August 29th, 2007, 10:37 PM
First week matchups! My totally arbitrary (think dartboard, chimpanzee, or blindfolded toddler) are in bold:

Not too shabby for arbitrary........yeah right...;)

scrivener
August 30th, 2007, 06:30 AM
I'm in. I'll post my picks later (gotta get going), but I must say I don't get where they're coming up with their "favorite" and "underdog" tags. What's the thinking in favoring the Jets over the Patriots?

pzarquon
August 30th, 2007, 07:05 AM
I'm in. I'll post my picks later (gotta get going), but I must say I don't get where they're coming up with their "favorite" and "underdog" tags. What's the thinking in favoring the Jets over the Patriots?Yay, Scriv! And I have no idea where they get those, either. Then again, I wouldn't know if they were off or not! I'd be curious how someone would do if they chose their weekly picks based entirely on their designated "favorites." The same way I wonder how any arbitrary but consistent methodology would fare, like whichever team's name comes first alphabetically, or whichever city is furthest west and south.

Not too shabby for arbitrary........yeah right...It is! I swear! My criteria is often effectively as follows. First, Jacksonville. Whoever they're playing. For my wife, don't you know. Second, is it a city I've visited? Third, is it a city where a good friend lives, and/or where I'd like to visit? And fourth, is it a city I've heard nice things about?

Sports knowledge don't enter into it at all. But I'm hoping that ignorance will turn out to be my secret weapon!

I've sent the password to a couple other folks, and would love to see more! Y'all can post your picks and debate them publicly, too, as I've said. By the by, once you're signed up and signed in, you can go straight to this link (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/49048) once logged into Yahoo! services.

ploal5333
August 30th, 2007, 02:15 PM
...We'll of course post weekly results/standings here at HT for everyone not registered in the Yahoo! Sports system.


pz, I just set up an account with Yahoo and posted my picks, but I have a question. How do you know who's who? I noticed several names which don't look familar here at HT. Will you be translating the names there to the names known here? :confused:

infinitypro
August 30th, 2007, 03:49 PM
I'm signed up, posted my picks...'eh no laugh, especially since I asked NOE, "Bengals or Baltimore COLTS?" :rolleyes:

I'm looking forward to learning, strategizing, and laughing!

pzarquon
August 30th, 2007, 06:48 PM
I noticed several names which don't look familar here at HT. Will you be translating the names there to the names known here?Ah, an excellent question. Good thinking. I'm guessing your team is 'ploal5333.' I can also guess who's behind 'INFINITYPRO' and 'Scrivener's Bartlebys.' I'm 'Don't Panic.' I would guess that the 'Ka'u Pahala Farmboys' is our wonderful Surfingfarmboy, and that would leave (by process of elimination) HokkiGuy by ItsGoTime.

Subsequent players, please feel free to introduce your team names... and a totally fictionalized team history, if you like!

I'm signed up, posted my picks...Awesome. Again, you can post your picks here in this thread as well, as I think the only people who can see it in Yahoo! Sports are other players, and of course y'all want to share your NFL brilliance!

I'll be posting the final pick table, and the new scores/standings each week, but those only become available as the respective deadlines pass.

Surfingfarmboy
August 30th, 2007, 11:38 PM
I would guess that the 'Ka'u Pahala Farmboys' is our wonderful Surfingfarmboy

You have guess correctly, pzarquon! I'm in this game to represent! I'm in it to bring glory and the thrill of victory to all of the sodbusters of Waiohinu, Naalehu, and Pahala! Go Kau!

ItsGoTime!
August 31st, 2007, 05:29 AM
and that would leave (by process of elimination) HokkiGuy by ItsGoTime.

Good point. I think I'll change my team name, if I still can. (Done) As for my picks, I go by the sniff test. I loof at the match-up, take a sniff, and decide who smells better. Most of my decisions are based on the current version of Madden I am playing, which is 2007, btw.

As for those betting lines, the first two weeks of the season are always a crap shoot. So much promise for each team, so much uncertainty. Often the lines are small (+ or - 3), and they give the home team the favour. These lines are not who they believe to be the better team, rather how can they make more money on betting.

ItsGoTime!
August 31st, 2007, 05:58 AM
My picks:

(picks on left, home team in caps)

Saints over COLTS (Saints have something to prove this year)
Broncos over BILLS (I like the Broncos)
SKINS over Miami (Too many new things in Miami to click right away)
Steelers over BROWNS (I like what Tomlin brings to the Steelers)
Titans over JAGUARS (No confidence in QB, Vince Young era continues, but watch out for that curse)
TEXANS over Chiefs (No good reason, except for LJ's holdout)
Eagles over PACKERS (Can't wait to see what Aaron Rodgers brings to the table)
RAMS over Panthers (When in doubt, go with the home team)
Falcons over VIKINGS (I just can't pick Tavaris Jackson from what I've seen)
Patriots over JETS (But I'm thinking the Jets are a possible upset here)
SEAHAWKS over Bucs (A romp)
Lions over OAKLAND (One of these teams will start the season undefeated)
CHARGERS over Bears (Chargers are the class of the West)
COWBOYS over Giants (Too much turmoil in the Giants camp)
BENGALS over Ravens (Bounce back year for Palmer, Ocho Cinco and Co.)
49ERS over Cards (Don't like the Cards D, but they are going to score more than their QB does)

My picks will never be this detailed again. I have a lot of time right now. Just finished my last job, new job (on O'ahu) hasn't started yet. Who's ready for some football?

PS - I reserve the right to change my picks if smells change

acousticlady
August 31st, 2007, 04:18 PM
OK - it may surprise some of you that I'm into this. My husband is a huge NFL fan and over the years it rubbed off on me. It was either that or be a football widow :D. We regularly plays the cards - you know, "for entertainment purposes only". I think he is going to join in too if he gets around to signing up. He spends hours going over stats before making his picks. Me? I have my own ways.....;) Here are my picks on the left, home teams marked with an H.

indy -H New Orleans
Buffalo-H Denver
Miami Washington-H
Pittsburgh Cleveland-H
Jacksonville-H Tenn
Houston-H KC
Philly Green Bay-H
Carolina St Loui-H
Atlanta Minn-H
New Eng. Jets-H
Tampa Seattle-H
Oakland-H Detroit
San Diego-H Chicago
Giants Dallas
Baltimore Cinci-H
San Fran-H Arizona

pzarquon
August 31st, 2007, 04:27 PM
My picks will never be this detailed again. I have a lot of time right now. Just finished my last job, new job (on O'ahu) hasn't started yet.It's all good. To post my picks, I just copy-pasted the Yahoo! pick screen into a text editor (to strip the HTML) then copy-pasted it into a post here. Even if that's too much work, as I noted I'll be posting the 'pick table' for everyone once the picks are locked each week, and we can debate, discuss, and ridicule then as well!

I reserve the right to change my picks if smells changeOf course! But after the weekly lock down (five minutes before the first game, I believe), you're stuck as far as our friendly competition goes. Posting subsequent wouldas and couldas is fine, of course!

infinitypro
September 1st, 2007, 12:51 PM
Here's our picks...'eh no copy ah! (Cause we have no research whatsoever in our picks!).

INDIANAPOLIS: Manning.
BUFFALO: Name of my former dog.
MIAMI: Umm...just because.
PITTSBURGH: My first favorite team because I DID NOT like the COWBOYS.
JACKSONVILLE: Local boys on the team.
HOUSTON: I lived there for many years.
GREEN BAY: Old school familiarity?
MINNESOTA: Once I met Warren Moon at an ESPN function.
SEATTLE: Family living in the area.
OAKLAND: Again, family.
CHICAGO: Another team with a local boy.
DALLAS: Yeah I know, NOE'S pick.
CINNCINATI: Cause I'm an alumni, MIGHTY TIGERS!
SAN FRANCISCO: Isn't this Hawaii's team?

And there you have it, you'd best be sure that if this system does not work I will be doing my research in the weeks to come!

ARE WE READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL???:)

jkpescador
September 4th, 2007, 11:14 AM
I is the Spider-Hunters.

pzarquon
September 5th, 2007, 08:31 AM
Woo hoo!

A reminder to those participating, you need to get your Week 1 picks into the system (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/49048) by midday tomorrow, Sept. 6. If you've made your picks, feel free to post them here, as others have. I'm glad to see my fairly arbitrary method of picking teams isn't as unusual as I thought (though I'd love to hear from folks who seriously study the teams!).

And to everyone else, it's never too late to join in. You can join any time, though of course your chances of winning drop with each week missed. (Speaking of winning... any suggestions for prizes?) Just PM me or e-mail me (ryanozawa@gmail.com) for the password to the Yahoo! Pick'em team!

scrivener
September 5th, 2007, 08:58 AM
I see that they fixed the nonsensical favorites/underdogs. When I first entered my picks, they had all the hometeams (in bold) as underdogs and all the visitors as favorites. Now they've got things straightened out.

Here are mine. Feel free to copy, but you'll regret it! My picks in all caps.
INDIANAPOLIS at New Orleans
Man, I was so sick of the Saints even by midseason last year that I find it impossible to root for them. It's a FOOTBALL team, people. Not a savior! Indy has lost some serious talent in the off-season, but I still say you have to knock the champion out. Indianapolis by 14.


DENVER at Buffalo
Man, as much as I hate the Broncos, I just love their starting corners (Dre Bly and Champ Bailey). Buffalo's one of those teams that could go either way this year; I'm guessing it'll have a pretty good season. I hope this one's on TV: I'd like to see Travis Henry against his old team.


WASHINGTON at Miami
Two more teams who could go either way. This one's a coin-toss, if you ask me. Oh, and keep an eye on TE Chris Cooley. I predict two touchdowns from him this week -- he's going to have a monster season.


PITTSBURGH at Cleveland
Willie Parker is the best RB Pittsburgh has had in ages.


Jacksonville at TENNESSEE
Jacksonville could go all the way this year, and the Titans are always hard to figure, but I have a feeling about this one.


Houston at KANSAS CITY
Two teams that should be really, really bad this year. I don't see how you can pick against the team with Larry Johnson, especially when Houston's much-heralded QB is completely unproven.


PHILADELPHIA at Green Bay
McNabb comes in this year with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. That's just how I like him! I want him in there, yelling at guys who don't perform, taking charge!


ST. LOUIS at Carolina
I have never been a Rams fan, but St. Louis RB Steven Jackson is hungry and could be the league MVP if the Rams do well this season.


MINNESOTA at Atlanta
Not only is Atlanta just poison until it proves it can do something (I seriously think it should grab Byron Leftwich!), but Minnesota's rookie RB Adrian Peterson is going to be awesome.


NEW ENGLAND at New York Jets
It's been a really, really rough week for the Patriots after a great pre-season, and I am eager to see what Thomas Jones can do in NY. But it's the freaking Patriots we're talking about. You don't pick against Tom Brady unless he's playing the Colts.


SEATTLE at Tampa Bay
I don't think TB is going to be as bad as last year, and Seattle didn't show much in the preseason, opting to keep its best players healthy and on the bench. If it can stay healthy, I think Seattle's going to be tough to beat by anyone this year.


OAKLAND at Detroit
I'm shocked that the Raiders are favored to beat anyone, especially considering the fact that they haven't announced a starting QB yet! I watched every one of the Raiders' preseason games, though, and this could be a VERY surprising team. As a fan, I'm trying to be realistic and am thinking that seven wins would be a GREAT improvement (that's five more than last season), but every year, some team comes out of nowhere and kicks butt. I don't see why that couldn't be the Raiders this year. I'm riding the Black and Silver until it's obviously stupid to continue to do so.

Watch out for Detroit, though. It sounds like it's determined to shoot the lights out this year, like a certain team in the WAC.


San Diego at CHICAGO
Yes. Now here's a matchup worthy of opening day. It's a tough call, but I'm taking the ridiculously awesome defense here over the terrific offense.


DALLAS at New York Giants
Don't like either team this year and am hoping Brandon Jacobs proves himself the monster stud he looks like in goal-line situations. Too many question-marks for the Giants, though, so I'll take the Cowboys in what I think will be the start of a good year for them.


Cincinnati at BALTIMORE
As last year's contest-participants know, I almost never pick against the Bengals, much to my sorrow last season. Call me a HUGE Chad Johnson fan and mark them down for the playoffs again, but Baltimore was the most invisible 13-3 team I've ever seen, and I almost always favor nasty defense over shoot-the-lights offense. This one, too, might as well be a coin-toss.


San Francisco at ARIZONA
Against my own brain, I'm going with my gut and taking the Cardinals. I just think this is Leinart's break-out year, and I don't think Edgerrin James is quite done yet. This may be the last time I pick the Cardinals over anyone, though!


I'm stoked about the beginning of the season!

ItsGoTime!
September 5th, 2007, 01:31 PM
I'm going to throw some things out, Scriv, in hopes of starting some sort of discussion.

Jacksonville cannot go all the way with this team, not with the shaky QB situation. Jones-Drew will not surprise so many teams this year (will still have a good year), and he WAS their offence last year.

I have a feeling Atlanta will not be as bad as some people think. Yes, Vick is the Super-duper star, but his talents are not compatible with a traditional NFL style offence. Now that he is gone, no more "Can the offence be fit for Vick's talents? Can Vick develop into a pocket passer? etc.." that we hear every year. No one asking anyone about dog fighting. It's just time to play football. But, I have a feeling I'll be eating these words by Week 6.

Raiders are in too tough a division to do much more than 7 wins. I agree that they will not be the gong show they were last year, if that's any consolation.

As a Broncos fan, I am optimistic about this year. Solid D (although run D looked fairly porous in the preseason, for what it's worth), good line and run game. The yooge (huge) question will be the play of Cutler. I am high on his future, love the way the ball leaves his hands, but he is very unpolished, and gets skittish in the pocket. This team will be one of those teams that can shut it down if it gets ahead, but it will have a hard time coming back from more than 2 TDs. At least my opinion. I'm ready for football.

Palama Kid
September 5th, 2007, 03:53 PM
I'm stoked about the beginning of the season!

Yeah, but you betta look at your post again and substitute "vs" for "at" . . .

No big ting, but a quick look showed that you got Raiders and 49ers playing away. Both games are at home.

As for my picks: if you remember my methodology for most of last year, you got a 50-50 chance for guessing ALL my picks.

You're right, pzarquon. My "legendary NFL knowledge" comes to the fore again.

ploal5333
September 5th, 2007, 03:56 PM
Jacksonville cannot go all the way with this team, not with the shaky QB situation.

Jags are in a tough division this year and they lack the toughness needed to make the playoffs. I do agree, however, that Garrard was the better choice over Leftwich.


Raiders are in too tough a division to do much more than 7 wins. I agree that they will not be the gong show they were last year, if that's any consolation.

I disagree. With coach boy Kiffen naming McCown the starter, good luck. He's never impressed me one bit. I had to change my pick because of this.


As a Broncos fan, I am optimistic about this year.
As long as Shanny is the coach, Broncos will never make it to the Super Bowl again.


I'm ready for football.
YES!

pzarquon
September 6th, 2007, 03:02 PM
Week One picks are now set! Let's see if this works:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/pickem_week1.jpg

Everyone but Mitchell picked San Francisco over Arizona. Everyone but acousticlady picked Tampa Bay over Seattle. Dallas is favored heavily over the New York Giants, Oakland favored heavily over Detroit, New England favored heavily over the New York Jets.

Let's roll!

infinitypro
September 6th, 2007, 03:13 PM
Quick question, are we using the point spread? :D

I know kinda late, but I'm confident in my choices even though I didn't even look at the point spread!

BTW GAME CAST (http://www.hawaiithreads.com)!

acousticlady
September 6th, 2007, 04:48 PM
Quick question, are we using the point spread?



I was wondering that too. BTW - if you haven't guessed, acousticguy is my husband. I picked the name if you can't tell - he thinks it's lame:p.

infinitypro
September 9th, 2007, 10:31 AM
I was wondering that too. BTW - if you haven't guessed, acousticguy is my husband. I picked the name if you can't tell - he thinks it's lame:p.

Well, I just checked the HawaiiThreads Yahoo Sports page, and it apprears as though the point spread is being used, and THANK BUDDHA because on some picks we surely needed it.

scrivener
September 9th, 2007, 06:00 PM
Darn it, we are playing with the spread. Why didn't the spread show when I made my picks? That would definitely have influenced my selections on a few games. Oh well. I'll just have to teach you all a lesson NEXT week!

pzarquon
September 9th, 2007, 06:30 PM
Darn it, we are playing with the spread.We are? D'oh. Not intentional, nor intentionally omitted, I promise you. Just further proof that I know about as much about sports as I do about quantum physics. I'm gathering this changes play somewhat? Hope it's not a deal breaker!

Here we are at the end of week one (previously hidden spread included)! Congrats to INFINITYPRO and ploal5333 for taking the early lead.

http://myskitch.com/hawaii/pro_football_pick_em-20070909-182756.jpg

infinitypro
September 9th, 2007, 07:28 PM
Darn it, we are playing with the spread. Why didn't the spread show when I made my picks? That would definitely have influenced my selections on a few games. Oh well. I'll just have to teach you all a lesson NEXT week!

Point spread showed after this week closed, which is why I asked the question after the fact, well after I noticed it.

If your'e gonna be handing out lessons, then this week I will certainly do my homework before making my picks. :)

Good luck everyone!

scrivener
September 9th, 2007, 08:26 PM
The spread is showing now, or at least it's showing where the spread will be once it gets published. When you edit your picks, you'll see spread columns for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. So you may want to wait until Monday or so before you put in your picks.

ploal5333
September 9th, 2007, 08:34 PM
Hey wait a minute! By playing the spread, does this mean my Denver pick doesn't count as a win? If so, I don't want to play the spread. :mad:

Why are we using a system with a spread? We are not gambling here, not exchanging money. I'M PLAYING UNDER PROTEST THE NEXT 15 WEEKS!

infinitypro
September 9th, 2007, 10:27 PM
Hey wait a minute! By playing the spread, does this mean my Denver pick doesn't count as a win? If so, I don't want to play the spread. :mad:

Why are we using a system with a spread? We are not gambling here, not exchanging money. I'M PLAYING UNDER PROTEST THE NEXT 15 WEEKS!

Umm...just wondering, are you really this :mad: upset about it? :D

scrivener
September 9th, 2007, 10:34 PM
Why are we using a system with a spread? We are not gambling here, not exchanging money. I'M PLAYING UNDER PROTEST THE NEXT 15 WEEKS!
Hey, don't be like that. The spread doesn't imply gambling or anything; rather, it adds another dimension to the game. It asks you not only to know which team is more likely to win, but whether or not it's likely to win by a given amount. I didn't expect Buffalo to play Denver that closely, so even given the spread (three points), I'd have taken Denver. I was wrong! Buffalo played a lot better than I'd have guessed.

So yes. It's going to be a more challenging game than a straight-up pick'em, but it's still just a game and we'll all be playing by the same rules.

pzarquon
September 10th, 2007, 05:19 AM
Again, 'twas not my intention to have the spread in effect. I'm not a fan myself, especially given my sports ignorance and the fact that I too think that, say, Team X winning by 3 points is still a loss because they were supposed to win in a blowout. Unfortunately, it does seem to be the case, and apparently the system won't let me change it now.

I agree, though, it just makes the game a little more complex. (Bad news for me, but sports fans? Nah!) Consider it a compromise between a straight-up pick'em and a full fantasy setup wherein you actually build a full team each with with a roster of players and win or lose depending on a multitude more factors.

Kawika0320
September 10th, 2007, 07:42 AM
I actually like the spread, I got pounded this week because of it, but I like the added dimension. Imagine that UH had a 24 point handicap this past week and the Vegas bettors lost that one. Congratulations to ploal5333 and INFINITYPRO for kickin' okole. Just more ground for me to make up:)

infinitypro
September 10th, 2007, 04:14 PM
I actually like the spread, I got pounded this week because of it, but I like the added dimension. Imagine that UH had a 24 point handicap this past week and the Vegas bettors lost that one. Congratulations to ploal5333 and INFINITYPRO for kickin' okole. Just more ground for me to make up:)

Thank you. We'll see how it goes next week!

ploal5333
September 11th, 2007, 09:18 PM
Still don't like the spread, but anyway...

Exciting early game Sunday: Colts @ Titans. Love both teams but gotta pull for Norm Chow and the Titans. Some of the Jag fans thought Norm's play-calling is what won the game for Tennessee. Isn't life great! :)

infinitypro
September 12th, 2007, 03:59 PM
I said that I would do some research, and "some" is the operable word. I considered not breaking away from the "system" that seemed to surprise us both, but there is a sense of responsibility in approaching our picks with "some" seriousness. And so, after reading about three sentences worth of each teams' performance last week, plus gut and a shrug of the shoulders, here's our picks for the 2nd week:

BTW the spread just totally confused us, made us second guess and well, I am not complaining just typing out loud.

HOUSTON
ATLANTA
INDIANAPOLIS
SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY
PITTSBURGH
CINCINNATI
NEW ORLEANS
MINNESOTA
MIAMI
SEATTLE
NEW YORK JETS
KANSAS CITY
OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAD
WASHINGTON

And, the tie breakers...we have no strategy except to guess, and hope. Does anyone else have a strategy for the tie breakers?

Good luck to everyone! :)

ploal5333
September 13th, 2007, 09:22 AM
My picks this week:
Hou
Atl
Ten
SF
GB
Pit
Cin
TB
Min
Mia
Ari
NYJ
KC
Den
NE
Was

Picking the wins this week was frustrating. I know I've made it known how I feel re the spread, to me the wins are more of a guessing game, it doesn't really pick the winner. So it really is 'good luck to everyone'. :mad:

ItsGoTime!
September 14th, 2007, 07:06 AM
FavoriteMonTueWedFinalUnderdogCAROLINA6.56.56.56.5 HoustonTo me, Carolina looks like a bust teamJACKSONVILLE10.510.010.010.0AtlantaSame with the Jaguars. 10 points is too much (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916030)Indianapolis7.07.07.07.0TE NNESSEEI think the Colts are going to open it up and throw a lot, much like they did in 2005 (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916010)ST. LOUISOff (0)3.03.03.0San Francisco?? When in dount, go with the home teamNEW YORK (NYG)Off (0)0.00.00.0Green BayAnyone see Lorenzen last week? Watching that guy move in the pocket was pure comedy. I can't wait to see a full game, if it's on TV.PITTSBURGH9.09.510.09.5BuffaloNot sure how the Bills will react to Everitt's injury. There's 2 ways to handle it.
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916023)
CincinnatiOff (0)6.56.56.5CLEVELAND3 more weeks until the Brady Quinn era begins.
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916005)
New Orleans3.03.03.53.5TAMPA BAYBounce back game for New Orleans. If they struggle this week, they will struggle all season. I did not like their showing last week.
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916027)
DETROIT3.03.03.03.0MinnesotaCan the Lions really start 2-0?
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916008)
Dallas3.53.53.53.5MIAMIIs Romo for real?
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916015)
SeattleOff (0)3.03.03.0ARIZONAI'm failry sure this will be a blowout, but the Seahawks have a way of playing down to their opposition. Still, I think they can handle the 3 points.
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916022)
BALTIMOREOff (0)Off (0)11.010.0New York (NYJ)10 points too much here.CHICAGO11.512.012.012.0Kansas City12 points not enough.
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070916003)
DENVER9.59.510.010.0OaklandLove the Broncs, probably will win, but 10 points is too much when you have a "rookie" QB.NEW ENGLAND3.53.53.53.5San DiegoPay-back for last year's playoffs. Game should be a beauty.PHILADELPHIA7.07.07.06.5WashingtonMcNabb has to play better. He's on my fantasy team. (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/preview?gid=20070917021)

Okay, so it looks like I can't just cut and paste the table into HT. I don't have time to change it (ie, too lazy) so sorry about this. I'll do it differently next week.

ploal5333
September 14th, 2007, 10:22 AM
Okay, so it looks like I can't just cut and paste the table into HT. I don't have time to change it (ie, too lazy) so sorry about this. I'll do it differently next week.

What a mess! :) Sometimes it's hard to know your pick:
'Dallas3.53.53.53.5MIAMIIs Romo for real?'

scrivener
September 15th, 2007, 07:34 PM
Okay, here we go:
Teams in ALL CAPS are home teams.
My picks are in bold.


CAROLINA 6.5 Houston
That spread seems generous; Houston is still a big unknown, and I have never been sold on David Garrard. However, Steve Smith showed last week that he's still the man, so until the Panthers are beaten, I'll ride them.

JACKSONVILLE 10.0 Atlanta
Here's a huge spread that I think is too conservative. Jacksonville HAS GOT to run the ball, though. I do not know what got into the Jags last week. Two things you know about the Jags' run game: Fred Taylor will get hurt, and until he does, he will be terrific.

Indianapolis 7.0 TENNESSEE
The Titans cannot keep up with the Colts. Especially not if the Indy D does anything like what it did last week.

ST. LOUIS 3.0 San Francisco
Everyone on the Rams has something to prove. Expect them to.

NEW YORK (NYG) 0.0 Green Bay
Manning and Burress looked great last week, while the Packers looked weak. Still, you think Favre is going to go two weeks in a row without a TD pass? Expect Donald Driver to score two.

PITTSBURGH 9.5 Buffalo
Oh man, I smell an upset here, especially with a 9.5 spread. I'm going against my gut here and giving the 9.5 points.

Cincinnati 6.5 CLEVELAND
You have to be kidding me. I'll give 13 points and take the Bengals here. What are they thinking in Vegas? The Browns don't have a QB and Chad Johnson says if he finds the end zone this week, he's taking a leap into the Dawg Pound. Bengals in a blowout.

New Orleans 3.5 TAMPA BAY
Another tough one. I'll take the points and the home team. I do not think last week's loss to the Colts was a fluke for the Saints. I think it's going to be a long season for them.

DETROIT 3.0 Minnesota
Kitna to Williams for three scores in a shootout.

Dallas 3.5 MIAMI
To answer ItsGoTime's question, I am not convinced that Romo is for real, but he was more convincing last week than I've ever seen him. Why am I finding myself liking T.O., my least favorite player in the NFL?

Seattle 3.0 ARIZONA
Another conservative spread. Watch Hasselbeck air it out this week.

BALTIMORE 10.0 New York (NYJ)
The problem with this spread is that it assumes the Ravens can score ten points, and that's highly questionable. I think they'll win this game, but not by 10.

CHICAGO 12.0 Kansas City
Again, this is too big a spread. I like Damon Huard and don't see him letting the Chicago D score, which is the only way the Bears beat the Chiefs by 12. Another game where the winning team won't beat the spread.

DENVER 10.0 Oakland
Fact: The Raiders have not beaten an AFC West rival in something like three years. Fact: The Raiders will probably start Daunte Culpepper, who has only been with the team for a month and a half. Fact: The Broncos have two of the best cornerbacks in the league. Still: The Broncos D looked weak last week, a lot weaker than it should have. I'm taking the points and my favorite team.

NEW ENGLAND 3.5 San Diego
Patriots in a blow-out.

PHILADELPHIA 6.5 Washington
I want to see Westbrook explode.

acousticlady
September 17th, 2007, 12:09 PM
What a mess! :) Sometimes it's hard to know your pick:
'Dallas3.53.53.53.5MIAMIIs Romo for real?'

Ok - that's my excuse for this week :D I know..... I need a new system. Maybe make my picks and then go with the opposite. :o

pzarquon
September 18th, 2007, 05:37 AM
Here's where things stand as we enter Week 3. Despite the frustration of the spread, ploal5333 still leads, followed by INFINITYPRO and then a three way tie for third -- ItsGoTime!, Scrivener's Bartlebys, and the Ka'u Pahala Farmboys.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/ht_nfl_pickem_2.jpg

scrivener
September 18th, 2007, 05:46 AM
Oh, I wish I were tied for third, but those are just the week's results, not the cumulative scores. I came out on the losing end of too many close games to have caught up that much.

ItsGoTime!
September 19th, 2007, 07:51 AM
Some wacked out results this week. What are the odds that Derek Anderson throws 5 TDs for the rest of the season? How anemic does that Saints offence look? How often does freezing the kicker (ala Mike Shanahan this week) actually work? How annoying are these questions.

I'm getting a handle on this season. My picks for week 3 (which I think I'll make when I arrive on O'ahu this week, whoo hoo) will be the ones to watch this week. You have my money back guarantee. ;)

ItsGoTime!
September 19th, 2007, 10:47 AM
Okay, I just realized that I won't have internet when I land, so all of you get my picks early. Home team in caps, my picks in italics

Indianapolis HOUSTON Colts didn't look great, but I think they should cover.
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo Blowout, especially with all the sign stealing going on.
NEW YORK (NYJ) Miami Miami look real bad this year. The Mangenious will rebound.
PHILADELPHIA Detroit Man, McNabb is killing my fantasy team this year.
PITTSBURGH San Francisco SF won't be able to hang with Omar Epps, I mean Mike Tomlin and his gang.
TAMPA BAY St. Louis T Bay has this "thing" going on this year. Must be Garcia who's bringing all the mojo.
San Diego GREEN BAY Bounce back game for the Chargers.
BALTIMORE Arizona I think this is finally Arizona's year. usually they lose that game they won last week.
KANSAS CITY Minnesota Is anyone actually going to watch this game?
OAKLAND Cleveland Who else thinks that Derek Anderson is crashing down to Earth this week?
SEATTLE Cincinnati Alexander is breaking our large this game. Atleast I hope he does.
DENVER Jacksonville Broncs will win, but I don't think they'll cover cuz they don't stop the run that well. I really like Cutler's arm.
Carolina ATLANTA Atlanta is the gong show that everyone thought they would be. Stupid me.
WASHINGTON New York (NYG) Giants are a mess.
CHICAGO Dallas I am actually rethinking my pick here.
NEW ORLEANS Tennessee If the Saints don't cover this spread, I consider their season over.

infinitypro
September 19th, 2007, 11:00 AM
Week 3, and why do I feel pressure? To be honest, I haven't watched a single game or read anything related to the NFL aside from "Vick's woes" and OJ's recent arrest. I did however notice that most of the point spreads are rather low which means good match ups and tough games. So, with no particular strategy at all...

INDIANAPOLIS.
BUFFALO.
NEW YORK JETS.
DETROIT.
SAN FRANCISCO.
TAMPA BAY.
GREEN BAY.
ARIZONA.
MINNESOTA.
OAKLAND.
SEATTLE.
DENVER.
CAROLINA.
NEW YORK GIANTS.
CHICAGO.
NEW ORLEANS.

scrivener
September 22nd, 2007, 09:37 PM
Geez. I need to gain some ground this week.

Home teams in ALL CAPS. My picks in bold.

Indianapolis vs. HOUSTON
Could be a shootout, but the Colts are the Colts, and the Texans are playing without Andre Johnson, who accounts for 60% of the Texans' receiving yardage in these first two games.


NEW ENGLAND vs. Buffalo
This one's going to bite me in the bottom. 16.5 points is a lot to give.


NEW YORK (NYJ) vs. Miami
I think the Jets are in big trouble. Miami will win without the points.


PHILADELPHIA vs. Detroit
I hope I'm wrong because I need Westbrook to turn it on. They're playing in Philly, which I think works against the Eagles this week -- the Lions have nothing to lose and the Eagles are under enormous pressure from those lousy home fans.


PITTSBURGH vs. San Francisco
Oh, I like this year's Steelers.


TAMPA BAY vs. St. Louis
The Rams just CAN'T be this bad, can they?


San Diego vs. GREEN BAY
Philip Rivers would have worried me last week if I'd been rooting for San Diego. It looked like all he could see was Antonio Gates, as if he has no confidence in his ability to get it to anyone else. If the Pack stuffs the box the way Chicago and New England did, the Chargers could be in big trouble.


BALTIMORE vs. Arizona
I almost always take a strong defense against a strong offense, but something tells me the Cardinals are due for something bizarre this week.


KANSAS CITY vs. Minnesota
I like the Vikings this year, and that KC offense is pathetic.


OAKLAND vs. Cleveland
No comment because I don't want to jinx the silver and black.


SEATTLE vs. Cincinnati
Ack! It's happening again, just like last year! I can't make myself pick against the Bengals!


DENVER vs. Jacksonville
I am telling you, this is not a good Broncos team. It could just as easily be 0-2 as its current 2-0. And it did that against Buffalo and Oakland.


Carolina vs. ATLANTA
Leftwich is a good addition, but it's too soon. Has anyone noticed that Joey Harrington hasn't really been that bad?


WASHINGTON vs. New York (NYG)
Look out for the 'Skins. They could be the real deal.


CHICAGO vs. Dallas
I am a sucker for great defense.


NEW ORLEANS vs. Tennessee
I can't believe the Saints are the favorite in this game, after what the Titans almost did to the Colts last week.

I look at these picks and see myself getting as many as 12 or as few as 6!

pzarquon
September 24th, 2007, 07:14 AM
At the close of Week 3, InfinityPro's double-digit pick streak ends, but still holds on to the overall lead. Kawika had the strongest picks this weekend. No doubt ploal5333 would've cleaned our clocks, but had to withdraw.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/htnflpickem_week3.jpg

scrivener
September 25th, 2007, 04:58 PM
Those were the standings before the Monday night game. A look now shows that Kawika, HomeAway, and I were the only contestants to see the Saints as this year's "what happened?" team. I am not sure I get that.

True: The Colts thrashed the Saints in week 1.
True: The Titans nearly beat the Colts in week 2.
What the heck?: The Saints were favored by 4 against the Titans.

Until the Saints show ANY signs of being the team they were last year, or even ugly distant cousins of that team, I say you pick against them in a straight-up pick'em WHOEVER they are playing.

Deuce McAllister went down early and might be through for the season. I can't decide if this is good for the Saints (who will have to make Reggie Bush the IT guy) or bad for the Saints (who will have to make Reggie Bush the IT guy).

Meanwhile, look out for the Raiders, the best 1-2 team in the AFC!


Here are the current cumulative standings, counting the Monday game:
http://mitchellkdwyer.net/images/htpickemwk3.png

jkpescador
September 27th, 2007, 04:54 PM
Tied for last ... :)

Oh well.

scrivener
September 27th, 2007, 10:42 PM
Tied for last ... :)
It's a long season and we've just gotten started. You're not that far back!

infinitypro
September 29th, 2007, 08:30 AM
Okay here we are in Week 4, and we've yet to see a game...terrible I know especially since many of you are well versed, studied and serious 'bout some football. It's such a close season...so here's our pick, with MUCH more studying and cross-reference.

GREEN BAY.
HOUSTON.
BUFFALO.
BALTIMORE.
DALLAS.
CHICAGO.
OAKLAND.
SAN FRANCISCO.
CAROLINA.
PITTSBURGH.
SAN DIEGO.
INDIANAPOLIS.
PHILADELPHIA.
NEW ENGLAND.

I'll admit despite the information and team scouting recaps, it again was difficult in determing a choice due to the point spread and that home field advantage was irrelevant in some games. Aaahh...HAVE FUN EVERYONE! :)

scrivener
September 29th, 2007, 10:41 PM
Holy cow, I had a difficult time with this week's picks. Seems like every spread was EXACTLY large enough to ALMOST pick the underdog but NOT QUITE. I think I'm going to take a swan dive in the standings this week!

Home team in ALL CAPS. My picks in bold.

Green Bay vs. MINNESOTA
The bookmakers must know something I don't about Minnesota at home, because the Packers have looked good recently. Pack by two TDs.

Houston vs. ATLANTA
I am sooooo not sold on Houston, but the Falcons are going to have to do something before I pick them, much as I think their offense is not bad.

New York (NYJ) vs. BUFFALO
Two teams I just can't figure out.

Baltimore vs. CLEVELAND
Don't know if the rotating QB plan will work, but I can't think of any reason it shouldn't. Weren't the Dolphins fairly competitive with the Woodley/Strock platoon in those pre-Marino years?

DALLAS vs. St. Louis
Some teams haven't convinced me they're as good as they have seemed; the Rams have not convinced me they're as BAD as THEY seem. I would love to see them wake up this week and teach the Boys a lesson. Plus thirteen points seems generous against a team with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Steven Jackson.

Chicago vs. DETROIT
The Bears aren't starting as many as six of their starting defenders.

MIAMI vs. Oakland
The Dolphins are 0-3 and they're favored? This sounds like a home-team-advantage spread, and I'm not buying it. They look TERRIBLE this year, and the Raiders are looking strong. Er.

Seattle vs. SAN FRANCISCO
I hate the Seahawks, but I really admire them, especially their coaching.

CAROLINA vs. Tampa Bay
I think I heard that Jake Delhomme is expected to miss this game; that could have serious repercussions, but they are the home team and I have a good feeling about this game.

Pittsburgh vs. ARIZONA
Only two teams in the NFL look better than the Steelers, and the Cardinals aren't one of them.

SAN DIEGO vs. Kansas City
I'm picking SD for the highest points total this week. I have a feeling they are going to DESTROY the Chiefs.

INDIANAPOLIS vs. Denver
I really wish the Colts D would make up its mind about who it is. It's confusing my fantasy team.

Philadelphia vs. NEW YORK (NYG)
Oh, Eli looked so good last week. But Donovan looked like a superhero. Please, more of that Westbrook magic this week!

New England vs. CINCINNATI
Wow. Finally, a team that can make me pick against the Bengals! Ocho-Cinco didn't score a TD last week, despite great yardage. Expect him to cross the goal line at least once this week.

Only 14 games this week; don't know if that helps me in my pursuit of the leaders or if it hinders me.

Should be some good games! And the Raiders are finally on TV this week!

ItsGoTime!
September 29th, 2007, 10:45 PM
I have had no time to do any real type of research, I wasn't able to watch any games lat week, so in lieu of doing a full break down of all my picks, I am posting this lame post instead. Catch you all later. Go Broncs!

PS - For those who are interested, hockey season started this weekend. Go Canucks Go!

infinitypro
October 1st, 2007, 10:37 AM
Forgive me, I don't know how to cut and paste from the board but I'll type out the standings:

HOMEAWAY - 31
INFINITYPRO - 31
KA'U PAHALA FARMBOYS - 31
IT'S GO TIME - 30
KAWIKA FUNKY REBEL - 29
SCRIVENER'S BARTLEBYS - 28
DON'T PANIC - 24
ACOUSTIC LADY - 23
SPIDER HUNTERS - 22
ACOUSTIC GUY - 22


Some of you may know, I was having a bad attitude Saturday and made my picks without the consulation of NOE. Well, yesterday after winning every other game then experiencing a string of losses she concluded, "It's because you didn't ask me!" :) She's right. And so, next week...I'll have my consultant with me and attitude in check.

Congrats to everyone! I hope ya'll are having as much fun as we are.

Palama Kid
October 1st, 2007, 06:44 PM
After spending much time and effort on my methodology during the off-season, seems like I'm finally getting some decent results.

HOMEAWAY

infinitypro
October 1st, 2007, 07:53 PM
After spending much time and effort on my methodology during the off-season, seems like I'm finally getting some decent results.

HOMEAWAY

AWESOME HOMEAWAY, you're number one today!

ItsGoTime!
October 1st, 2007, 10:41 PM
So, how much longer does Norv Turner have the conch in San Diego? I figure they let him ride out the season, partly to give him a chance to turn things around, and partly because mid-season coaching changes never do anything except prepare for the next year.

And, how did the Eagles not end up double teaming Omenyiora (sp?). You think the coaching staff would have figured out that Winston Justice was overmatched eventually?

Man, it's hard to watch football over here. It starts so early. And until my stuff gets here, I am watching the games on my laptop through a slingbox. Great device by the way. I can't wait for my 40" LCD. I miss it so much. [sniff]

pzarquon
October 2nd, 2007, 07:59 AM
Thanks, Infinity, for the early rundown. Sorry I'm late with the summary boards! Here they are. I am indeed amused that Surfingfarmboy's scientifically developed picking system is indeed netting real results!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/ht_nfl_pickem_week4.jpg

ItsGoTime!
October 2nd, 2007, 09:41 AM
Thanks, Infinity, for the early rundown. Sorry I'm late with the summary boards! Here they are.
Late? The week ended last night. Good work by everyone involved thus far.

Palama Kid
October 2nd, 2007, 11:24 AM
AWESOME HOMEAWAY, you're number one today!

Thanks IP.

But operative word is "today" . . . 'tis a long long season.

My methodology (note my name) might require further tweaking.

infinitypro
October 9th, 2007, 09:49 PM
Tried to figure out how to post the table from the Yahoo site, but obviously I couldn't. Perhaps when PZ is back on he can post a quick tutorial. Speaking of PZ...DOUBLE DIGITS this week, with 11 correct, a close second to ACOUSTICLADY'S astonishing and so far league weekly high of 12!

It's been an exciting and close season so far!

I returned to my usual strategy of good attitude and consulting NOE, but oh I feel the breath of the crowd on my neck!

pzarquon
October 10th, 2007, 08:19 AM
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/ht_nfl_pickem_week5.jpg

InfinityPro has the lead, but it's a narrow one. Indeed, there's a tie for second and only a one point difference between each of the top eight placements!

I have no idea how I hit 11 this week, considering I barely know the difference between a field goal and a home run!

acousticlady
October 10th, 2007, 02:38 PM
yay!!! Eeinie Meenie Minie Mo seemed to work for me this week. Can't believe I hit 12. Been teasing acoustic guy....... all that analysis :p. Course - reality check. There were those weeks of 3 and 4.........

infinitypro
October 10th, 2007, 02:45 PM
yay!!! Eeinie Meenie Minie Mo seemed to work for me this week. Can't believe I hit 12. Been teasing acoustic guy....... all that analysis :p. Course - reality check. There were those weeks of 3 and 4.........

Whoop whoop to you! :D

acousticlady
October 11th, 2007, 12:39 AM
Whoop whoop to you! :D

Thanks! Still have a long way to go just to catch up to you (and a few others) though.....

jkpescador
October 12th, 2007, 09:45 AM
I'd be in last if not for someone who hasn't picked anything the last couple of weeks. :) Just imagine if I went opposite of my picks I'd be in first place! :)

Kittrick
October 12th, 2007, 01:30 PM
All I know is that Seattle better win this week or at least score 3 points! Last week was brutal, and I would have been happy with even a missed field goal to say at least we almost scored heh.

I have to wear my #38 Mack Strong jersey with pride because he gave everything he had and at least he wasn't paralyzed in his final game against pittsburgh and got to walk off and hold the retirement press conference on Monday.

pzarquon
November 9th, 2007, 07:11 AM
It's been a while since an update! I'm still making my picks, random though they may be, and am cementing my skills at staying near the bottom of the pack. At present, we've got a three-way tie for second! But our leader racked up another double-digit week to widen the gap.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/ht_pickem_week9.jpg

Palama Kid
November 9th, 2007, 11:44 AM
This is taking so much of my time. This week, I needed until Wednesday to make my choices.

PZ, the stress is getting to me . . . I know I'm headed for a drop . . . a bigtime plummet. It's not helping that I'm flying home next week. Mo stress.

HomeAway

scrivener
November 9th, 2007, 12:52 PM
All I know, Palama Kid, is that if you win this thing outright (and by that kind of margin), it proves something I tell my students all the time: Betting on football, especially with (or against) the spread, is STUPID, because you never know what can happen!

I've worked really hard to make good picks, and it's put me in a tie for second place, BUT the way I've managed that is never to have had a BAD week: Most of my weeks are in the 7-8-9 range, which is roughly a 50% success rate, which is what the sports books are shooting for when they set the line!

To win this contest outright with a (albeit intelligently executed) strategy such as yours either means that NOTHING can be counted upon or EVERYONE ELSE behind you STINKS at this!

Now, if somehow I win this thing, it means something entirely different: It underlines the importance of smart picking!

Palama Kid
November 9th, 2007, 08:30 PM
Somehow, I agree with everything that Scrivener said in post #71. Might not be so agreeable if we just needed to pick the winners, with no odds.

With no odds line, my methodology was to actually study game odds (and their changes), team injuries, weather, etc. & search for upsets.

With HT NFL Pick'em 2007, I scan the games / odds, make a quick, blanket assessment of home vs away teams, then make up my mind which way to go. With this methodology, why should I need anymore'n a couple of days?

Not wavering from the original decision is the most stressful component of this methodology.

Since I'm predicting my decline, someone might consider going anti-Palama Kid. Hmmmm . . .

Surfingfarmboy
November 10th, 2007, 12:51 AM
I dislike playing the game with the spread. To me it's like trying to handicap a craps game. You know that the odds are in favor that a seven will be rolled on any given toss of the dice, but there is a chance that a two will come up.

It basically has turned the contest into a game of chance. And it makes "losers" out of "winners". (Example: New England not covering against Indy last weekend.)

Inasmuch as I don't care for the spread, I will admit that having it does add an element of "equality" to the game that the basic picking of a winner straight-up game doesn't have. One really isn't going out on a limb to predict New England over Miami in Foxboro straight-up, but picking the Dolphins to beat a 15+ point spread...that's does take some gumption.

I knew this was a spread game when we started back in September, and even though I'm not doing particularly well at the moment, I'm going to continue to play my hand as dealt and finish the game that I started. One of these weekends I'm bound to (at least in theory, based on my opinion about this game) come up big!

infinitypro
November 22nd, 2007, 09:42 AM
OMB! I missed the damn deadline not knowing it was TODAY! :mad::mad:

Oh well, I'll get over it.

acousticlady
November 23rd, 2007, 02:56 AM
Ahhhh.......both of us missed the deadline too!

scrivener
November 23rd, 2007, 08:54 AM
I would have missed the deadline, too, but I get an email from Yahoo! every week reminding me of when the deadlines are. Definitely helped this week.

Don't feel bad, you guys. Pz got his picks in and you're doing as well as him so far after three games!

jkpescador
November 27th, 2007, 05:12 AM
I'm in fourth ... amazing ... I just make my picks and leave them now ... no analyzing ... and I'm doing much better. Maybe I should ask my three year old to choose between the logos or mascots. :)

infinitypro
November 27th, 2007, 07:27 AM
I'm in fourth ... amazing ... I just make my picks and leave them now ... no analyzing ... and I'm doing much better. Maybe I should ask my three year old to choose between the logos or mascots. :)

It's worked for us all season long, until of course we forgot that the games started early this week...it still burns me!

scrivener
November 27th, 2007, 08:34 AM
It's worked for us all season long, until of course we forgot that the games started early this week...it still burns me!
I feel sorta bad about that, except that it has been my experience in many years of playing pickem games that people ALWAYS drop themselves by forgetting to submit picks, making the game something of a marathon of dedication. The winners in these games are often simply the ones who remember to put in their picks. :)

So I don't feel too bad. This always happens!

pzarquon
November 27th, 2007, 08:41 AM
It should be helpful to note, then, that this week's deadline is Thursday, Nov. 29 at 3:10 p.m. (Yahoo! Standard Time?).

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v457/hithreads/htnflpickem_week12.jpg

scrivener
November 27th, 2007, 09:02 AM
It should be helpful to note, then, that this week's deadline is Thursday, Nov. 29 at 3:10 p.m. (Yahoo! Standard Time?).
The deadlines are provided in whatever local time you tell Yahoo! is yours. If Yahoo! thinks you live in Hawaii, the 3:10 would mean 3:10 in Hawaii.

Palama Kid
November 27th, 2007, 01:10 PM
Make your choices early. A drawback: while you can still make changes due to, say, a prominent Redskin safety's death, you'll be going against your initial pick.

infinitypro
December 6th, 2007, 07:54 AM
Whew! I thought I missed the deadline AGAIN :eek: while it is today, it's not till 3ish.

scrivener
December 31st, 2007, 02:06 PM
Congratulations to Palama Kid, who dominated this game pretty much from the beginning. I have a graphic but can't post it right now. PalamaKid's HomeAway team finished with an eleven-point lead over second-place me.

I was ten down heading into the final week. The only prayer I had of catching up was (a) for him to pick no more than six winners, and (b) for me to pick up ten more than him. Since his strategy all season has been to pick either all home teams or all away teams, my strategy (which, in retrospect, I should have employed three weeks ago) was to guess whether he would take home teams or visiting teams, then to pick the SAME teams (so that whatever he got right, I would also get right) and THEN to pick at least ten games he was most likely to get wrong. Once he was committed to all home teams, for instance, he was forced to pick teams he probably otherwise wouldn't have. I had to identify those teams and reverse the pick. Basically, I had to differ with him on at least ten games, and I had to be right.

It was a good plan, but I guessed wrong. Certain he was going to pick the away teams (with New England and San Diego among them), I picked all home teams (including Oakland and Atlanta) and then switched enough of them to give me a mathematical (if unlikely) shot. Sadly for me, he picked the visitors.

The result of this almost brainless system? Only my second two-digit week of the season! Of course, it was still one fewer than Palama Kid's 11. So even if I'd guessed correctly and Palama Kid had taken the away teams, I'd only have picked up five games on him, cutting his lead only in half. However, if he had picked all the away teams and I'd picked all the home teams, I'd have finished the season one point ahead of him!

I take back what I said about this being completely a chance thing if Palama Kid won the whole thing. I know there are people who make their livings betting on football, so brains have to play a part in this, somehow. I just don't think any of us had them, at least not this year!

Congratulations again, Palama Kid. I'll get you next year.

infinitypro
December 31st, 2007, 02:56 PM
Congratulations PalamaKid! After forgetting one week two, three too many I just sort of took the panic off of my plate. Next year, hopefully I will not move in the middle of the season, and be in a routine. Actually, what really threw me off was the Thursday deadline, I have to remember next year. It doesn't help that the email account was set-up only to access NFL, and other services, but I don't check it daily.

Ah...no more of my excuses! It was fun, and congratulations!

Palama Kid
December 31st, 2007, 03:51 PM
It was a good plan, but I guessed wrong. Certain he was going to pick the away teams (with New England and San Diego among them), I picked all home teams (including Oakland and Atlanta) and then switched enough of them to give me a mathematical (if unlikely) shot. Sadly for me, he picked the visitors.

Scriv, you made a supreme effort to catch me by working against my system. In an earlier post, I made mention of an anti-Palama Kid methodology, didn't I? My PM egging you on also played a part in concocting your plan, I'm sure. BTW I picked the home teams this week - note error in your last sentence above.

You realize that with my score of 140 out of 256 games, I guessed right less than 55% of the time. Although eminently beatable, it didn't happen in this Pick'em. In fact, you and I were the only ones to beat 50%. What's that say about our fellow gamblers? Or what does that say about gambling, period? A losing proposition, maybe?

Now that my system has been outed (and worked well enough this year), it'll be no fun to use it next year. I may go back to worrying over injuries, suspensions, odds changes, weather, momentum, etc. to make my picks. Naaah, I gotta find sumpin easy. Maybe a modified version of your plan would do.

FYI I used the home teams ten weeks; away teams seven weeks. I guessed wrong five times.