Bush v. Kerry in Hawaii

[mcnabbmcnow]

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/ar.../ln/ln05p.html

I must say I am surprised, but Hawaii appears to be shifting somewhat more Republican, even if Bush doesn't win. This should have been an easy win for Kerry...

[Miulang]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

It could also be that people are so sick and tired of these damned polls that they're lying about who they really plan to vote for.

There are at least 12% of the voting population nationally who are still undecided...they may lean toward one candidate on one day and then change their minds the next day.

The ultimate winner, I fear, will have to be decided by the House of Representatives. We should probably throw out the results and start from scratch. I think they had a fairer election in Afghanistan than we will on Nov. 2.

Miulang

[mcnabbmcnow]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

It could also be that people are so sick and tired of these damned polls that they're lying about who they really plan to vote for.

There are at least 12% of the voting population nationally who are still undecided...they may lean toward one candidate on one day and then change their minds the next day.

The ultimate winner, I fear, will have to be decided by the House of Representatives. We should probably throw out the results and start from scratch. I think they had a fairer election in Afghanistan than we will on Nov. 2.

Miulang

You may be right. I hear there are thousands of lawyers chomping at the bit to sue someone or claim voter suppression (though no case was one in the 2000 election for this at all) Democrats have even more and are more irate, because they feel 2000 was unfair. I don't feel it was as unfair because Florida was called early by the press, an hour before the panhandle of Florida, in a differnet time zone, was done voting. The Panhandle is very Republican, the most in the state. They should not have done that and 3 independent sources said Bush lost about 10,000 votes possibly cause of this. I wonder if we will know who won by the year 2005!

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

Hee! I got called for this poll. Unlike the fake poll Tanonaka commissioned a while back, Ward Research is pretty much on the level.

I have to admit, I was surprised. Not so much over the fact that Bush has gained ground (no one should take any group's vote for granted), but because of the seemingly illogical contradictions in the poll results.

The majority of islanders believe Bush misled America on the rationale for invading Iraq. The majority believe invading Iraq has made America less safe. The majority believe we'll be stuck in Iraq longer than promised. And yet a chunk of those polled will still vote for Bush? Yike. That is, indeed, a sad commentary on Kerry's absolute lack of appeal.

But, taking a closer look, I think Miulang makes a good point. The overall results show a 43.3 percent/42.6 percent split, but a whopping twelve percent proclaim they are undecided. (In my own personal polling, I'm quite likely to get that answer from folks who "just don't want to get into it"). There's a higher percentage of Democrats willing to cross over to Bush than vice versa, but there's no breakdown of what the respective "by party" population was overall. I still think Democrats outnumber Republicans by a fair amount... although a decreasing amount, to be sure. Finally, this is a "war election," and we have a sitting "war president." Considering how closely Hawaii is tied to the U.S. military, I more than expect a strong divergence from the "norm" that we might usually see in polls.

I think someone better tell the folks over at the Electoral Vote Predictor. So far the polls they use to get Hawaii numbers appear to be mainland-based.

[mcnabbmcnow]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

Hee! I got called for this poll. Unlike the fake poll Tanonaka commissioned a while back, Ward Research is pretty much on the level.

I have to admit, I was surprised. Not so much over the fact that Bush has gained ground (no one should take any group's vote for granted), but because of the seemingly illogical contradictions in the poll results.

I think that the polls just really speak that people don't like Kerry. War is rarely a popular thing, but I think what the polls show is that Kerry is trusted even less than Bush. And with Hawaii having a big military presence, this election could be a little different.

[Miulang]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

Also remember that one of the main reasons why Hawai'i has been able to get so many appropriations from the Defense Dept. is in no small measure due to the efforts of DEMOCRAT Dan the Man who is the 3rd highest ranking US Senator. He carries a lot of weight on Capitol Hill. See how much additional funding Hawai'i gets for its military bases after he leaves office and there's no one going to bat for those military bucks.

Miulang

[mcnabbmcnow]

Bush Now TAKES LEAD in Hawaii!!

http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/index2.html

A second poll has come out in Hawaii more recently, and not only is Bush tied, as in the recent poll, but this poll has him with a 1 point lead. Amazing.

[Miulang]

Re: Bush Now TAKES LEAD in Hawaii!!

http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/index2.html

A second poll has come out in Hawaii more recently, and not only is Bush tied, as in the recent poll, but this poll has him with a 1 point lead. Amazing.

And the flip flopping in the polls ain't going to be over until the fat lady sings, has a stomach stapling operation and loses about 300 lbs! What is the margin of error? + or - 4%? What you have is a dead even race at best, my friend.

Miulang

[kamlost]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

It could also be that people are so sick and tired of these damned polls that they're lying about who they really plan to vote for.

There are at least 12% of the voting population nationally who are still undecided...they may lean toward one candidate on one day and then change their minds the next day.

The ultimate winner, I fear, will have to be decided by the House of Representatives. We should probably throw out the results and start from scratch. I think they had a fairer election in Afghanistan than we will on Nov. 2.

Miulang

Hahahh! Yah.. they should call us up. Then they'll really get the proper opinions

It can't be decided by the House of Representatives.

So, how accurate are these polls? Like based on historical findings? Anyone know?

[Glen Miyashiro]

Re: Bush v. Kerry in Hawaii

One recent development in poll error is the increasing use of cell phones. When they collect their data, pollsters only call land line numbers and don't (can't?) call cell numbers. If the cell-using public differs from the landline-using public in their political views, then the polls will have even more error than they already do.

[kamlost]

Re: Bush v. Kerry in Hawaii

Why don't they start doing polls through the cell? SMS?? But then again, there are only a certain number of those who would actually take part in a poll. Kind of like those who would actually send in a letter to the editor. MOst others can't really be bothered.

[Linkmeister]

Re: Bush v. Kerry in Hawaii

As far as I know, cellphones aren't in the phone book, right? So how would they get the cell numbers to poll?

[kamlost]

Re: Bush v. Kerry in Hawaii

Databases

[Sherry]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

You may be right. I hear there are thousands of lawyers chomping at the bit to sue someone or claim voter suppression (though no case was one in the 2000 election for this at all) Democrats have even more and are more irate, because they feel 2000 was unfair. I don't feel it was as unfair because Florida was called early by the press, an hour before the panhandle of Florida, in a differnet time zone, was done voting. The Panhandle is very Republican, the most in the state. They should not have done that and 3 independent sources said Bush lost about 10,000 votes possibly cause of this. I wonder if we will know who won by the year 2005!

I certainly hope not. But I would not be surprised. With the races as tied as they appear neither party will give up without a fight. Politics..politics..

This should prove to be interesting.

My take is that Kerry is perceived too much as a weak leader. America cannot have a weak lead. Bush on the other hand is definetly strong, just a little rash and stubborn. Kerry promises a lot of improvements. But sometimes I worry about the man because you never know if he is going to stick to his platform. Bush sticks to his platform but he problem is his platform is not always correct.
Difficult choices ahead for all, that is certain.

Mahalo
_________

Shukriya

[j3rr3y]

Re: Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat!

I don't really consider myself as "belonging" to any party... that said, I think Bush may have more votes than expected here partly because of the large military presence. Over 73% of Military personnel support Bush. I am voting for Bush again this year, more because I feel it isn't too smart to change leaders in the midst of a war, and I think Bush will be a lot stronger on terrorism. Terrorism overrides the economy, health care, and those issues to me, because they all depend on peace, and I really think Bush will get the job done as quickly and effectively as possible.