Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

[admin]

With Election Day upon us, the nation's top contest is moving into its last inning. We've debated, defended, and deconstructed the presidential race all over the place, and for the most part - gluttons that we are - enjoyed it.

Now, from tracking polls and pundits to final vote counts (and perhaps ultimately, more court battles), let's make this thread the final, definitive rhetorical mosh pit on HawaiiThreads.com. Other Bush and Kerry threads will be closed, and stray presidential posts will be merged here.

Have at it! See you on the other side.

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

I've been carefully watching and appreciating the work of Andrew Tanenbaum, the guy behind the Electoral Vote Predictor (see also electoral-vote2.com, electoral-vote3.com, and so on, since his servers are being hammered) and undoubtedly the hardest working webmaster in the world right now. Things have swung back and forth from day to day, even more than once in one day. If the polls are to be trusted (and, of course, they're really not), a lot of folks will be up late tomorrow night... and perhaps for the next week if lawyers get the order to charge.

We have another bumper crop of polls today, 50 in all. Since Sept. 1, the total number of polls in the Polling data file is 937. Toss in another 252 polls from May 24 to Aug. 31 and we have the most studied election in the history of the world. And what's the conclusion? Nobody knows.

Honestly, though... with the way the nation has been polarized and divided, with the way even conversations among friends and coworkers become strained or awkward when politics comes up, with the way elected officials on boths ides are being forced to spend their time posturing and preening rather than working... whoever wins the White House, there's a part of me that'll be relieved no matter what.

[Miulang]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

Here is the "X-Factor" that everyone is having problems nailing down: the young people who have cellphones but no land lines so they can't be called by traditional methods to be asked who they're voting for.

This poll was published earlier this morning and if accurate (it's certainly got the lowest margin of error I've ever seen claimed by any of the polls), then it's pretty apparent who the young people prefer. If they turn out and actually vote, maybe the election won't be as tight as everything thinks it will be.

http://news.com.com/Young+cell+phone...3-5435106.html

And here's something from columnist Jimmy Breslin on Oct. 21 that will make anybody who puts their blind faith on the conventional polls to be able to predict tomorrow's winner look like an ostrich with his head in the sand! Go kids go! Rock the Vote!

http://www.newsday.com/news/columnis...ews-columnists

Miulang

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

Oh, were only it that easy. Sure, the slacker class skews heavily democratic... but it also skews heavily toward shopping, surfing, or doing anything but voting on election day.

In other news, reports are surfacing now that Karen might not have been so far off, after all, in her interpretation of Osama Bin Laden's latest videotape. While analysts agree that Osama's message amounts to a wash as far as the election is concerned (merely polarizing people in either camp to support their candidate with even more fervor), a more nuanced translation of his message seems to suggest, indirectly, that he favors John Kerry... insofar as he vehemently opposes George Bush.

Most curiously, it implies a surprisingly keen interest in the outcome of our election, and (if some translators are to believed) threatening individual states, depending on which way they go tomorrow.

[VoxPop2004]

Importatnt Message Before You Vote part 1

This is quite a long posting, and we know you're probably very busy with the matter of living your life, but this is a matter of life, or death. It concerns not only your life, but the lives of every man, woman and child in this country, and perhaps the world. Please read on.

George W. Bush for president
Chicago Tribune, October 17, 2004

There is much the current president could have done differently over the last four years. There are lessons he needs to have learned. And there are reasons--apart from the global perils likely to dominate the next presidency--to recommend either of these two good candidates. But for his resoluteness on the defining challenge of our age--a resoluteness John Kerry has not been able to demonstrate--the Chicago Tribune urges the re-election of George W. Bush as president of the United States.

So when you step into the voting booth on Tuesday, think and think very seriously: which man will, without question, be able to ensure the security of not only your life, but your children's lives, and their children's lives? Think of what the children in those two airplanes and those two towers would say.
There can only be one resounding answer: President George W. Bush.

God bless you, and may God bless America.

--CITIZENS FOR A STRONG AMERICA

[Linkmeister]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

Political spam from a group which doesn't show up in Google. Hmm.

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

I get a few references, actually, for a CFSA. Their website is long gone, though archived at the Wayback Machine. That CFSA is an advocacy group for missile defense... and seems unrelated to the hit-and-run poster above. Sounds more like an organization name made up off the cuff for the purposes of plagiarizing a newspaper editorial.

Signed,

Ryan
President, United Geographers for the Liberation of Yellow-Haired Acrobatic Teetotalers (UGLYHAT)

[Linkmeister]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

I get a few references, actually, for a CFSA. Their website is long gone, though archived at the Wayback Machine. That CFSA is an advocacy group for missile defense... and seems unrelated to the hit-and-run poster above. Sounds more like an organization name made up off the cuff for the purposes of plagiarizing a newspaper editorial.

Signed,

Ryan
President, United Geographers for the Liberation of Yellow-Haired Acrobatic Teetotalers (UGLYHAT)

Damn. Since my hair is turning gray and since the knee was operated on so I'm not very acrobatic, I guess I'm not eligible for membership, huh?

[Karen]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

LOL, this is good stuff! am looking for the interview in its entirety, online.

"Brokaw: Someone has analyzed the president's military aptitude tests and yours, and concluded that he has a higher IQ than you do.

Kerry: That's great. More power. I don't know how they've done it, because my record is not public. So I don't know where you're getting that from."

********************

Can't leave this out! Just found it..and it is NOT funny, but quite serious & yet another indictment of Kerry & his lack in becoming a good leader.

COUNTDOWN TO ELECTION DAY
Iran's threats discredit Kerry nuke policy
Parliament shouts 'Death to America' in vote to enrich unranium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: November 2, 2004
1:00 a.m. Eastern


By Art Moore
© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

On the eve of the U.S. presidential election, Sen. John Kerry's campaign continues to advocate normalizing relations and providing nuclear fuel to Tehran's radical mullah-led regime despite the Iranian parliament's defiant, anti-American vote to proceed with uranium enrichment, a key process in development of atomic weapons.

Shouting "Death to America," and "Death to Israel," Iranian lawmakers decided unanimously Sunday to back the outline of a bill that would require the Islamic government to resume uranium enrichment.

An activist in the Iranian democracy movement believes the American mainstream media is ignoring the impact the parliament's message has on today's U.S. presidential election."

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

So where's the best place online to follow the (not inconceivably unreliable) exit polls and state-by-state results?

Andrew Tanenbaum has promised to update his Electoral Vote sites as results come in, whereas a lot of the other projection sites stopped with the last polls yesterday. But one guy probably doesn't have the resources for broad national commentary. CNN has a pretty nice presentation (Fox News has a more basic 'pick your own' tracker widget)... with a page just for Hawaii. Who's doing the exit polling out here?

And I didn't know Alaska's polls close two hours later than ours do! We close at 11 p.m. EST, Alaska's at 1 a.m. EST tomorrow!

Or, make your own red-blue map with the Electoral College Calculator or compare polls with your predictions with a snazzier version from the L.A. Times.

Early reports are of unprecedented lines at polling places. Good news for America, whichever side wins.

[waioli kai]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

Posted on: Monday, November 1, 2004 10:01 AM HST Vice President Richard Cheney roared into Honolulu fed several thousand hollering and cheering Republicans a red meat, Democrat-bashing 30-minute speech and then flew out. Republican Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle called the 11 p.m. (Sunday,Oct 31, Halloween) one hour last minute BushCheney campaign stop a big success. ttp://starbulletin.com/2004/11/01/news/index2.html

Posted on: Monday, November 1, 2004 12:02 PM HST Six Kaneohe Marines killed in Iraq Six Kaneohe Marines were killed in Iraq during intense fighting in Fallujah on Saturday. ttp://starbulletin.com/breaking/breaking.php?id=3028

Let's see...Cheney gets to Honolulu after the Hawaii based marines are killed in Iraq, does his campaign duty and comforts the marines' surviving families in Hawaii? Or, did Cheney just campaign for Freedumb, while the marines just happened to die for Cheney's freedom to campaign for Freedumb? And die for the oil to feed Cheney's freedom?

Let's see... ' "Now in the final days of this campaign, John Kerry is running around talking tough. He's trying every which way to cover up his record of weakness on national defense. But he can't do it. It won't work." Cheney told the cheering crowd in Honolulu.'

Meanwhile tough-guy Cheney could not even publicly honor marines whom he knew were last stationed in Honolulu. Cheney knew the news of the Kaneohe soldiers' deaths was being held until after he had shown face in Hawaii; ironically, it was his arse speeding away that was probably showing the most! Such a brave man should live in a bunker...the remainder of his life!!

[Linkmeister]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

So where's the best place online to follow the (not inconceivably unreliable) exit polls and state-by-state results?

Andrew Tanenbaum has promised to update his Electoral Vote sites as results come in, whereas a lot of the other projection sites stopped with the last polls yesterday. But one guy probably doesn't have the resources for broad national commentary. CNN has a pretty nice presentation (Fox News has a more basic 'pick your own' tracker widget)... with a page just for Hawaii. Who's doing the exit polling out here?

And I didn't know Alaska's polls close two hours later than ours do! We close at 11 p.m. EST, Alaska's at 1 a.m. EST tomorrow!

Or, make your own red-blue map with the Electoral College Calculator or compare polls with your predictions with a snazzier version from the L.A. Times.

Early reports are of unprecedented lines at polling places. Good news for America, whichever side wins.

There's also The Command Post (click on the Election 2004 link). It's got amateur observers in nearly every state, and it's trying to be non-partisan. (Full disclosure: I clicked on the Hawai'i link yesterday, found nothing, said so, and got roped into doing it for the Aloha State).

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

Good stuff. I was wondering if anyone would be liveblogging the local election. That collaboration (I see there are others on the Hawaii team now) is a good place to start.

On the national level, the ever-predictable blogosphere is erupting over the inevitable release of early NEP (formerly VNS) exit poll numbers:

From Slate.com

         AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH  NV  NC
Kerry    --  46  --  54  50  50  51  50  58  51  --  --  48  49
Bush     --  53  --  45  49  49  47  48  40  46  --  --  50  51

From Jerome Armstrong

         AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH  NV  NC
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57  --  --
Bush     55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41  --  --

Better than expected battleground numbers for Kerry overall (what's up with Pennsylvania?), but being early numbers they will be skewed by voters who really wanted to vote, rather than the more broad sample later polls will review. And, of course, exit polls are not actual votes. Just polls. They're what got us into that early-calls mess in 2000, and need to be taken with a giant grain of salt.

[Karen]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

PRESIDENTIAL RACE
• George W. Bush 17,264
• John Kerry 9,540
• Ralph Nader 153
• Campagna Badnarik 53
Of course Guam has no electoral votes, but since to so many the popular vote matters MORE, this is very cool. Gonna be a very interesting night!

Go, BUSH, Go & God bless him for it, faults & all.

[pzarquon]

Re: Bush v. Kerry: The Final Round

There are all kinds of weird superstitions and omens that people turn to in trying to predict the winner of an election. You cite The Guam Poll (although, following a Supreme Court battle, residents there can't vote): "Historically, the results of the poll on the ballot have mirrored the nation's choice for president... [T]he last time Guam residents chose a candidate that did not win the presidency was in 1980, when Guam chose incumbent President Jimmy Carter over challenger Ronald Reagan."

Okay. Advantage Bush. What else is out there? Whoever you support, here's some "research" you might enjoy.

The Washington Redskins: "Since 1936, when the Redskins' franchise moved from Boston to Washington, the American football team's pre-election performance at home has predicted the presidential winner." Redskins lost to Green Bay, advantage Kerry.

Kids via Kids Vote: "Nickelodeon, a unit of Viacom Inc., has organized its poll every election since 1988, and has a 100 percent record of picking the winner." Advantage Kerry.

Kids via the Weekly Reader: "Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history." Advantage Bush.

The Stock Market: "[I]f the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value in the month of October before Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job... This predictor has been true without exception from 1904 to the present..." The Dow fell 0.52 percent in October, advantage Kerry.

Halloween Mask Sales: "It's as unscientific as it gets, but the theory, according to some people in the costume business, is that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks were most popular on Halloween." Bush outsells Kerry 57 to 43 percent, advantage Bush.

Presidential Height: "According to the "Presidential Height Index," an admittedly unscientific comparison of the heights of all presidential aspirants since the advent of television, the tallest candidate in a presidential race usually wins." Advantage Kerry.

Skirt lengths, cookie sales, unemployment numbers, all have been seized upon as predictors of the future, and yes, some of them have been more reliable than people paid to make such predictions. But what does it, in the end, is the actual numbers of votes cast. Well, most of the time.