Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Running on empty within 20 years?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Running on empty within 20 years?

    For awhile, there have been stories (some would call them "scare tactics") about how we are going to experience a global shortage of oil; it's just a matter of time. Many people think this can't happen in their lifetime (and then, after they're dead, why should they worry about those who are still around?) but consider this:

    It is now generally acknowledged that the US oil production reached its zenith in the 1970s (that was the last big oil crisis we had) and since then, we have been importing more and more oil as the US has been able to extract less and less oil, and as China's and India's demands have way outstripped ours. Our current "foreign policy" is relying on our ability to control the oil resources around the world (the Middle East, Venzuela, Mexico among others).

    "...The size of world reserves is not only unknown, it's beyond our control. With that quantity fixed, the chief way for humans to stretch out the oil curve is to cut the rate of consumption. Fast-rising demand in the world's two largest countries, China and India, is said to be worsening the current oil crunch, but before we in the West point fingers, it's important to remember that one average American consumes as much oil as 35 citizens of India..." and we're not just talking about the gas for the car, but all the plastics we use in our everyday life!

    "...Expensive, energy-inefficient and environmentally disastrous efforts to exploit oil and tar sands in Canada, Venezuela and elsewhere could be cranked up to full speed. The militarization of American society could become total, as the government's chief mission becomes control of oil across the globe. (The number-one target, of course, would be the Persian Gulf, where resides 63 percent of the world's remaining oil.) And we would likely exploit our large coal reserves in a big way, breaking new global-warming records as we go...."


    What has not been accepted generally until very recently is that eventually, possibly as soon as within 20 years, there will be less oil to pump globally because we will have reached the world's peak production limit.

    What will we do when we will no longer be able to get any oil, irrespective of price? What if you couldn't even buy gas for the fossil fuel burner at $10/gallon? I, for one, just bought a bicycle because I figure if I can't drive my car, at least I will have some way to get to work (which is 25 miles away).

    Miulang
    "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

  • #2
    Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

    What most of these reports fail to acknowledge is that it's not at all clear as to how much oil we've got. It's not like there's a set quantity and once we run out, we're out of luck. There are many different oil-bearing resources, at different levels of quality and extractability. As oil gets scarcer, the price will go up, and as the price goes up, the not-worth-it-to-extract stuff suddenly becomes worthwhile to go after, and so the available supply increases, which drives the price down, etc etc. A more accurate prediction is that oil prices will generally go up. You'll always be able to get oil out of the ground in the foreseeable future... if you're willing to pay enough for it.
    Last edited by Glen Miyashiro; April 4, 2005, 04:16 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

      Originally posted by Glen Miyashiro
      You'll always be able to get oil out of the ground in the foreseeable future... if you're willing to pay enough for it.
      Yeah, but we'll pay for it not just in dollars but in environmental degradation for a long time to come. I'm not just talking about "Ooh, nice view," but entire ecosystem destruction. Look at what coal removal is doing to mountaintops in West Virginia. We need to figure out how to create hydrogen fuels without burning other fossil fuels to get it.
      http://www.linkmeister.com/wordpress/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

        That's true. I didn't mean to minimize the environmental damage that all that extraction can cause; I just wanted to point out that the "we're running out of oil" meme is rather empty. I agree that we should reduce our petroleum usage, but we shouldn't be using bogus reasoning to argue our points. That just gives more ammo to the oil companies who claim that we tree-huggers are wrong-headed and don't know what we're talking about.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

          The oil companies are actually running scared too, because companies like Exxon, once oil becomes scarce, will be in a world of hurt. I think that's why they're trying to make as much money as they can right now. Otherwise, how can they post a 27% INCREASE in profits since 2003, even with the huge increase in the price of crude oil?

          "...Exxon Mobil Corp. ranked second again with $270.77 billion in sales, up a stunning 27 percent from '03 as the price of oil rose above $50 a barrel and gasoline sold for more than $2 a gallon. The company also topped Fortune's profits charts for the second year in a row with $25.3 billion in earnings, breaking the record set by Ford Motor Co. in 1998."



          Miulang
          "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

            I hope to goddess that the scenario described in this ICH article never pans out. "World War III" (sometime in the next 30 years), which would pit the US, Pakistan, Israel, Japan, Taiwan, England and Australia in bloody conflict against China, India, Russia, France, Germany, Iran, Venezuela and Brazil, will be fought over control of the earth's dwindling resources.

            What's scary is the Bush Administration and the neocons already have us headed down this path today, with their insistence on controlling the resources in the Middle East. That any thinking American can possibly believe that our invasion of Iraq, occupation of Afghanistan and looming invasion of Iran isn't about oil is totally insane.

            Miulang
            "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

              Another thought piece about when the peak oil production point might hit the world. Once the easiest to extract sources of oil dry up, the less attractive ones will become more desirable, but at the cost of increased energy required to reclaim it, which is kinda counterintuitive to me (why expend extra energy and cost to extract less oil?)

              One other thing to think about: if drilling in ANWR and off the coasts of the US (particularly FL) is allowed, there is no guarantee that any oil extracted will be sold to consumers in the US. The oil drillers are all multinational corporations whose main raison d'etre is to make as much money as possible, forget patriotism or other crap like that. That would mean most of any new oil found in our country will probably be headed to China or India.

              Life in this country as we know it today, will cease. No more plastic grocery bags, no more computers (unless we can come up with some non-petroleum based substitute for the plastic that used for the computer cases...maybe a mahogany computer case?), no more plastic blister packs (hooray!) ad infinitum. Think about all the petroleum-based things you use daily. Then think about what your life (or your kids' lives) will be without them.

              Miulang
              Last edited by Miulang; April 21, 2005, 08:12 AM.
              "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

                Originally posted by Miulang
                Once the easiest to extract sources of oil dry up, the less attractive ones will become more desirable, but at the cost of increased energy required to reclaim it, which is kinda counterintuitive to me (why expend extra energy and cost to extract less oil?)
                Because the alternative would be to not have any oil at all, which at present isn't an acceptable option.

                Life in this country as we know it today, will cease. No more plastic grocery bags, no more computers (unless we can come up with some non-petroleum based substitute for the plastic that used for the computer cases...maybe a mahogany computer case?), no more plastic blister packs (hooray!) ad infinitum. Think about all the petroleum-based things you use daily. Then think about what your life (or your kids' lives) will be without them.
                No; plastic and many other currently petroleum-based products can be made from corn and other plant materials. It's just a bit more expensive to do so.

                Miulang, you're being one of those alarmist black-and-white scaremongers that I complain about. Yes, life as we know it today will cease, but it did that yesterday and it will do it again today and again tomorrow. It's a fallacy to think that society is stagnant; rapid change has been a part of our lives ever since the Industrial Revolution started.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

                  Originally posted by Glen Miyashiro
                  Because the alternative would be to not have any oil at all, which at present isn't an acceptable option.

                  No; plastic and many other currently petroleum-based products can be made from corn and other plant materials. It's just a bit more expensive to do so.

                  Miulang, you're being one of those alarmist black-and-white scaremongers that I complain about. Yes, life as we know it today will cease, but it did that yesterday and it will do it again today and again tomorrow. It's a fallacy to think that society is stagnant; rapid change has been a part of our lives ever since the Industrial Revolution started.
                  Don't mean to be alarmist, just want to make sure people don't continue to live under the notion that things are going to get better, because they can't unless everybody starts ho'okuleana.

                  Miulang
                  "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

                    Here is what the White House had to say about the energy crisis yesterday Questions were fielded by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. I'm not going to inject my own biases here, just read this transcript for yourself.

                    Miulang
                    "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

                      Originally posted by Linkmeister
                      We need to figure out how to create hydrogen fuels without burning other fossil fuels to get it.
                      Correct, the solution is alternate energy sources. I just wonder how much influence the major oil companies have on our national political decisions seeing that they contribute heavily to the campaigns of the politicians in trying to have the politicians drag their feet when it comes to alternate energy sources. I'm not sure how much grants are being funded to look for an alternate technology that is safe and efficient. The Government spent dollars for a contest on a space travel vehicle, why can't they do the same for a prototype model of an automobile (for example) that operates on alternate energy source, or at least is more efficient in conserving energy. In this, I do not mean gas mileage, but instead of conventional brakes that stops your car by friction (no energy recovery), but to stop the car by pressurising fluids and using the stored energy in the pressurized fluids to put the vehicle in motion again when you want to go again.

                      Also, maybe I'm giving our Government too much credit, but I believe they want to import as much oil as we can and not tap into our reserves, in the event a major war breaks out and our foreigh oil supply is cut off, that is when we will need to tap into our reserves so we can defend our country. I think although we will start drilling in the ANWR, that is to provide us the ability to draw the oil quickly if needed. They will regulate the amount of oil drawn out of that resource. If we are totally dependent on foreign oil, we are heading for a rough times. I just hope I haven't overestimated the foresight of our politicians.
                      Whoa, Mista Buss Driva, eh, you can stop the buss o wat?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Venezuela cracking down on foreign oil companies

                        Well, even though Venezuela today only provides the world with a measly amount of oil (the country is now the fifth largest oil exporter in the world), the price we end up paying for that oil might change sharply because of Venezuela's threat to stymie American oil companies' efforts to reap windfall profits from that country. And if our oil companies don't play nice with the Chavez regime, ExxonMobil, etc. could get kicked out of the country completely.

                        Is it too farfetched to think the Bush Administration might have to send some soldiers down there too in order to keep that supply of oil flowing in our direction?

                        Miulang
                        "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Running on empty within 20 years?

                          Back in the Reagan days, I remember him saying we were going to increase our imports of foreign oil because we didn't want to tap into our reserves here in the United States. These reserves were meant to act as a buffer and as standby fuel in the event world oil production became biased against the U.S.

                          We have quite a bit of oil under protected lands (thanks to Clinton) as well as oil hidden in shale (the largest known quantities of oil-laden shale can be found in the U.S.). Albeit expensive to extract, shale has the oil America needs to sustain itself. So to support Glen, we have lots of oil but it's gonna be expensive to get it, however as demand has shown, we Americans will pay whatever it takes to keep our SUV's topped off and running.

                          What I think is amazing is that Dan Inouye supported Clinton's move to restrict drilling in conservation land yet is backing Bush in wanting to open up Alaska for domestic production of crude oil. To me there is no partisianship action going on here but a bi-partisian effort to use both parties to get domestically produced oil while playing the public for fools.

                          I can't elaborate on that but my gut feeling is that behind the walls of Congress both parties are acting in collusion to get what's needed for the U.S. and using public opinion and the media to somehow benefit the predetermined outcome.

                          I have state senator and representative friends who tell me this bipartisian fellowship exists to some level in our own State government. He says after the sessions a few of them go drinking together whether they're conservative or liberal! One staunch democratic senator friend of mine ended up voting republican after retiring from the Senate.
                          Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

                          Comment

                          Working...
                          X