Life without cheap oil

[Miulang]

Here's a somewhat lengthy thought piece by Paula Routly of Seven Days, who interviewed James Howard Kunsler, author of "The Long Emergency" about what life will be like in the US now that the days of cheap oil appear to be in the past.

Interesting to note that Kunsler believes that many of the jobs we have today will disappear, and more of us will be working on food production...America will then have come full circle, starting as an agrarian society and returning to its roots.

What will the people in an overdeveloped Hawai'i do when there is little land to produce food and shipping food becomes cost prohibitive? Will there be skirmishes among people who produce the food and those who can't?

Miulang

[helen]

Re: Life without cheap oil

I don't think the cost of crude oil is going to change the ways we do things around here (both here in Hawaii and the rest of the world). Rather the availabilty of crude oil is what is going to change the way we do things.

[Miulang]

Re: Life without cheap oil

I don't think the cost of crude oil is going to change the ways we do things around here (both here in Hawaii and the rest of the world). Rather the availabilty of crude oil is what is going to change the way we do things.

And as oil becomes scarcer, it will become more expensive. And then only the rich will be able to afford to drive cars; most of us will no longer be able to play on the Internet because the cost of electricity will soar (and most electricity is generated using natural gas). So hopefully everybody who works in high tech is studying how to be a farmer.

One thing I really appreciate (as an adult) was being forced tend a garden in intermediate school on Maui as a project. At least I had a chance to learn how to grow vegetables. Maybe we should be teaching kids that skill again...

Miulang

[Palolo Joe]

Re: Life without cheap oil

And as oil becomes scarcer, it will become more expensive. And then only the rich will be able to afford to drive cars; most of us will no longer be able to play on the Internet because the cost of electricity will soar (and most electricity is generated using natural gas). So hopefully everybody who works in high tech is studying how to be a farmer.

This is all assuming that those very people in the high tech industries don't develop NEW technologies to provide sustainability.

The more expensive gas gets in Hawaii, the more people will start to ride mopeds and those electric cars that are so popular with the tourists. It won't be just rich folks on the roads.

[DaveNSoKona]

Re: Life without cheap oil

There are always chicken littles if you want to give them your time and energy.

Many people bemoan the lack of alternative energy, but when it becomes cost effective you will see all kinds of alternatives pop up. I read somewhere that gas would have to be $6.00/ gal to make the extra cost of the current hybrids cost effective. It’s known fact that if you install solar in your home today you will never recoup the investment in energy savings at current energy costs. It’s the modern equivalent to the 1950s building of a bomb shelter.

Here is a link to a rebuttal to Kunsler's viewpoint:
Why Kunstler's wrong

There has been a lot of talk about nuclear as a viable solution. In the new issue of Technology Review, Whole Earth Catalog founder Stewart Brand outlines a surprising new plan for saving the environment, including a case for going nuclear.
Link

It has been pointed out that the only technology now available to produce the energy needed to supply the nation with enough hydrogen to make fuel cell technology feasible is nuclear energy. (Feasible: pulling up to a hydrogen gas station and filling up like we do now with gasoline). I just hope, if they go the nuclear route, that they do a better job than they have in the past to make nuclear safer.

[Glen Miyashiro]

Re: Life without cheap oil

There has been a lot of talk about nuclear as a viable solution. In the new issue of Technology Review, Whole Earth Catalog founder Stewart Brand outlines a surprising new plan for saving the environment, including a case for going nuclear.
Link

It has been pointed out that the only technology now available to produce the energy needed to supply the nation with enough hydrogen to make fuel cell technology feasible is nuclear energy. (Feasible: pulling up to a hydrogen gas station and filling up like we do now with gasoline). I just hope, if they go the nuclear route, that they do a better job than they have in the past to make nuclear safer.

Freeman Dyson, the physicist, had some interesting commentary on Where The American Nuclear Power Industry Went Wrong. If I recall correctly, his point was that after WWII, in the 1940s-1950s, the USA decided to focus its efforts on heavy water reactors that would work well in submarines, to the detriment of other designs that were arguably safer for power plant use. And these days, the nuclear industry is so regulation-bound that it's not flexible enough to innovate.

[Miulang]

Re: Life without cheap oil

Another little thought piece about the coming scarcity of oil. Maybe if we all thought about the implications now and started to conserve, the scenarios outlined in the article won't have to come to pass.

Imagine not being able to fly on a plane because it would cost too much. The people in the colder and hotter regions of the country might have to choose between heating their homes in the winter or cooling their homes in the summer v. being able to drive their cars to work. In some ways, you're lucky you live in Hawai'i. You don't have to worry about heating your hales in the winter time and, unless you're spoiled, worry about boiling to death in the summertime since you have the tradewinds. In other ways, you may not be so lucky because a lot of your agricultral land has been developed, so the notion of being able to be self-sufficient foodwise is probably not feasible, unless you're lucky like Craig and have acreage that you can till.

Miulang

[DaveNSoKona]

Re: Life without cheap oil

"Other likely developments include a decline of the global economy. It will simply cost too much to make stuff in China and haul it 6,000 miles to a Walmart."

There is always a silver lining...no more Walmart!

How about this scenario: A safe clean nuclear energy plant is developed which will give rise to mass production of clean burning hydrogen production. Everyone is driving environmentally save hydrogen fuel cell cars.

Crisis averted, whew!

[Miulang]

Re: Life without cheap oil

"Other likely developments include a decline of the global economy. It will simply cost too much to make stuff in China and haul it 6,000 miles to a Walmart."

There is always a silver lining...no more Walmart!

How about this scenario: A safe clean nuclear energy plant is developed which will give rise to mass production of clean burning hydrogen production. Everyone is driving environmentally save hydrogen fuel cell cars.

Crisis averted, whew!

That would be great IF the US also allowed other countries like China and India to have nuclear plants, too, because this is a global problem, not just an American problem, and the problem with that is the US won't let other countries who don't currently have that capability (and even some that do--like Iran and Pakistan and North Korea) to have that ability to start weaning themselves away from petroleum for energy because we think those countries will use their spent rods to build nuclear weapons. Well, the only reason that might happen is because we continue to build nuclear bombs ourselves...duh. We have nuclear warheads stashed all over Europe, and now the Germans want to stop hosting some of those bombs, which apparently are pointed at the Middle East right now.

We have to get over the notion of the American Empire---the only superpower remaining--if we and the rest of the world expect to be around for the next millenium. We need to be a nation among equals. If we change the paradigm, maybe there would be no need for the kinds of power plays that are now being played out. The war in Iraq is turning into a civil war (the Vietnam War in reverse, and the Korean conflict redux) and we should get the hell out of Iraq while the insurgents and the Iraqi government duke it out amongst themselves and protect our own troops' lives.

Miulang

[DaveNSoKona]

Re: Life without cheap oil

I agree our government has an antiquated mindset.

When I worked for General Motors they likened making changes to the largest corporation in the world to turning a supertanker or mega ocean liner. Changes must be made but the result of those changes is a long time in coming. A supertanker can't be turned on a dime. I suspect the same applies to the US Government.

That isn’t to say that Bush/Congress is making the necessary changes now to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. A mindset, or paradigm shift in the “Red” states needs to happen before those changes can be implemented. The most important issue in America right now isn’t “Family Values.” “Family Values” will go out the window when gas is $5.00 a gallon and we have 12% unemployment.

We can’t expect any changes as long as Texas oil money is controlling the Whitehouse.

[Miulang]

Re: Life without cheap oil

Speaking of "newklear" bombs...not many people realize that it takes an act of Congress to declare war against a country, but only the President's say so (and he has 20 minutes to decide) to start a nuclear attack against another country and wipe out a large part of the world. Now the DoD wants the power to be given to the Prez and themselves to PREEMPTIVELY start a nuclear attack without provocation. Now we're not even going to wait until we're hit by a nuclear weapon before the Prez, without an act of Congress, can wipe out part of the big blue marble we call home. Now THAT's scary. A conventional war is one thing, but something that can permanently alter the world as we know it is truly alarming.

Miulang

[Miulang]

Re: Life without cheap oil

I guess I'm not the only one who believes that America as we know it---as the #1 Superpower--can no longer exist if we as a society intend to exist. I don't agree with the author that $4/gallon gas is going to alter too many minds...the price may have to go up even higher than that before public transportation becomes a necessity for many.

Miulang