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Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

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  • Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

    Interesting thread.

    I read a study by Paul Brewbaker 2-1/2 years ago when the median home price was in the high 400's. Maybe low 500's. He predicted that the real estate market in Hawaii would continue to appreciate till the median home price hit the mid 600's, then would level off.

    He based his projections on the current long term interest rate (10 year treasury) and Hawaii median household income. He had a graph that showed the peak of the bubble in the early 90's and it validated his projections.

    I thought he was nuts but two years later, lo and behold, he was right on. The man was right on. That being said, I see current long term interest rates remaining stable and Hawaii's economy to hold steady. That means no bubble bursting.

    Since I own my home, this makes me sleep better at night.


    • Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

      Oh oh Timkona,

      I know you predicted 10% gains until 2016 cuz of the boomers. Your crystal ball might need some polishing.

      Fall has cast a chill over the residential real estate markets on Kauai and the Big Island, which saw both median home sales prices and sales volume lag last month as demand for properties paled.

      On the Big Island, the October median sales price for a single-family home dropped just 2.7 percent to $267,500 from the year-ago $275,000. But condominium prices fell 21 percent to $375,000 from the $474,500 that was recorded in October 2005.

      The number of single-family homes sold on the Big Island in October fell 24.7 percent to 58 from the year-ago 77, while sales dropped by 40 percent in the condominium market.


      • WAIT - But Timkona said.....................

        Cheee, timkona, typical of your type, you know, the salesman.

        You, supposedly a real estate "professional", said on this board many times that real estate prices would continue to climb until 2016, 10% a year, cuz of the "baby boomers" or some silly thing like that.

        I sure hope none of your clients took your appraiser advice cuz prices are already way down. The average sucker who listened to you lost about 80 grand from June 2006 to June 2007.

        And you wonder why nobody listens to you at the community meetings. Its not the "culture of no" or whatever you call it, its the "culture of no listen to carpetbagger salesmen".

        Smat eh?


        • Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

          For those who listened to the professional TimKona, the supah smat, from da mainland, know it all kind of guy we all love so much, here is a story from Florida.

          I know Florida ain't Hawaii but human psychology is pretty much the same.

          Like Timkona, they also said that the baby boomers would keep on coming. Nope? What? Oh know, my house value is dropping.

          But Timkona said it would go up 10% per year until 2016, and he's an expert, he knows everything.



          • Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

            In 3-7 (North Kona), for homes under 1800 sf, and lots under 15000 sf, fee simple, there has been a 2.6% drop in median price, and a 7.7% drop in average price, year on year for June 06-07.

            -2.6% Perhaps the sky is falling, as Kam hopes. But given the past 8 years, and hundreds of percents of increases, and the continuing strain that the Politics of NO places upon the market, I just don't see Hawaii being a soft market anywhere anytime soon.

            It is noteworthy that median days on market is dropping. Inventory at the lowest price ranges is still quite scarce.
            Energy answers are already here.