Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

[timkona]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

In 3-7 (North Kona), for homes under 1800 sf, and lots under 15000 sf, fee simple, there has been a 2.6% drop in median price, and a 7.7% drop in average price, year on year for June 06-07.

-2.6% Perhaps the sky is falling, as Kam hopes. But given the past 8 years, and hundreds of percents of increases, and the continuing strain that the Politics of NO places upon the market, I just don't see Hawaii being a soft market anywhere anytime soon.

It is noteworthy that median days on market is dropping. Inventory at the lowest price ranges is still quite scarce.

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

For those who listened to the professional TimKona, the supah smat, from da mainland, know it all kind of guy we all love so much, here is a story from Florida.

I know Florida ain't Hawaii but human psychology is pretty much the same.

Like Timkona, they also said that the baby boomers would keep on coming. Nope? What? Oh know, my house value is dropping.

But Timkona said it would go up 10% per year until 2016, and he's an expert, he knows everything.

Aloha.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article...TATE/707150625

WAIT - But Timkona said.....................

http://starbulletin.com/2007/07/07/b...s/story01.html

Cheee, timkona, typical of your type, you know, the salesman.

You, supposedly a real estate "professional", said on this board many times that real estate prices would continue to climb until 2016, 10% a year, cuz of the "baby boomers" or some silly thing like that.

I sure hope none of your clients took your appraiser advice cuz prices are already way down. The average sucker who listened to you lost about 80 grand from June 2006 to June 2007.

And you wonder why nobody listens to you at the community meetings. Its not the "culture of no" or whatever you call it, its the "culture of no listen to carpetbagger salesmen".

Smat eh?

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Oh oh Timkona,

I know you predicted 10% gains until 2016 cuz of the boomers. Your crystal ball might need some polishing.

http://starbulletin.com/2006/11/04/b...s/story01.html

Fall has cast a chill over the residential real estate markets on Kauai and the Big Island, which saw both median home sales prices and sales volume lag last month as demand for properties paled.

On the Big Island, the October median sales price for a single-family home dropped just 2.7 percent to $267,500 from the year-ago $275,000. But condominium prices fell 21 percent to $375,000 from the $474,500 that was recorded in October 2005.

The number of single-family homes sold on the Big Island in October fell 24.7 percent to 58 from the year-ago 77, while sales dropped by 40 percent in the condominium market.

[808shooter]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Interesting thread.

I read a study by Paul Brewbaker 2-1/2 years ago when the median home price was in the high 400's. Maybe low 500's. He predicted that the real estate market in Hawaii would continue to appreciate till the median home price hit the mid 600's, then would level off.

He based his projections on the current long term interest rate (10 year treasury) and Hawaii median household income. He had a graph that showed the peak of the bubble in the early 90's and it validated his projections.

I thought he was nuts but two years later, lo and behold, he was right on. The man was right on. That being said, I see current long term interest rates remaining stable and Hawaii's economy to hold steady. That means no bubble bursting.

Since I own my home, this makes me sleep better at night.

[timkona]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Year on Year September (one day early, but who's counting)

Fee Simple, Residential < $1m, 3-7 tmk (North Kona)

______# Sales _______Low______High_______Avg______Med_____
2005___131_________300,000___990,000____618,809__6 20,000
______________________________DOM_______47_______2 5

2006___22__________339,000___800,000____616,860___ 650,000
______________________________DOM_______111_______ 92


Low Price still climbing. Med price still climbing. Avg Price near unchanged. DOM climbing. See post #161 for more data from last month.

Politics of NO is still winning the battle. Housing Supply at the low end is nonexistent. Sorry Kam. Hate to rain on your parade.

And yet, we keep making babies. Everybody loves children.

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Just more proof of how gd smart I am...you don't believe me about the demographics issues? check this and eat crow

http://money.aol.com/fastco/general/...17091209990001

Timkona the real estate guru of Hawaiithreads was promising continued increases in real estate prices in Hawaii until 2016 I believe.

Timkona, you're only 10 years off. No worry.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/ap...609280333/1071

Wait, but I thought Timkona said real estate only goes up?
How could it be?
Where are the boomers?
It's Hawaii, paradise.

Yep, you smart Tim Kona. Hope you enjoy the taste of crow.

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Keep up the vigil Aaron. Hawaii is screwed. But not to worry, Hawaii has always been screwed. Nothing new. The fact that the one party Plantation Asian Democratic Party has never been able to diversify Hawaii's economy in 50 years is exactly WHY the housing market is sure to crash by 40% or so (including inflation).

Hawaii is a shell game. People have "island fear". "oh, wot get toilet pepah showtage? ho, I going stan in line at walmot foah 4 houwahs foah buy all I can". It's the fear factor. Same with housing. People panic and start to overpay. Once interest rates start rising, home prices will begin to drop. If another terrorist attack gets air transportation, Hawaii is dust again.

Hawaii could diversify but Hawaii's people have chosen to continue to elect a one party system of government whose main supporters are those on the payroll of the one party system. The last downturn gave you Linda Lingle but that's it, its still a one party town.

But no worry, sun will still shine, surf will still roll in, and most of Hawaii will continue living their lives as Hawaiian Wannabees. Localzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Link to my blog

More Aaron's Thoughts On the Housing Crash

I was thinking about financial analysts predicting a "housing crash" in the near future today. With the median price dropping 14% in August 2006 (previously blogged here) on the Big Island, these analysts may be right. But at what cost,if the housing market continues tank, our overall economy in Hawaii (and nationwide is going to suffer). As those related industries that support housing, like construction, and real estate are going to be profoundly affected. It irritates me greatly that these "analysts" or "doomsayers" fail to see the huge human factor in the effects of their prognostications.

Another facet to this is, any downtown in Hawaii's economy is going to require the curtailment of government infrastructure projects and services. The last time this happened, in the mid 1990's,West Hawaii got the short end of the stick infrastructure wise.Thus when the economy ramped up again, the infrastructure could not meet the needs of the growing economy. Worse yet,whenever there is downturn in the economy, it seems Hawaii's government tries to re-zone tons of land in preparation of the next land rush. Is that appropriate government planning ?, I tend to strongly think not. Thus why Hawaii desperately needs to diversify our economy and not be catering to the whims of developers wishing to pave over this state.

[timkona]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Year on Year for tmk 3-7, Fee Simple, < 1 million

# LOW HIGH AVG MED
AUG 05 55 380,000 985,000 623,477 585,000
DOM 0 164 39 28

AUG 06 40 389,000 945,000 619,493 605,000
DOM -72? 353 115 97

Low price has stabilized. Avg dropped. # Sales dropped. Median still climbing.
Check days on market. Skyrocketing.

Hey Kam, I told you to bust out the champagne about 3 or 4 months ago, remember?

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Demographics, Demographics, Demographics.

The number of births that took place in the 1950's was ASTONISHING. Over 8 million babies born in just 2 years - 56 & 57 - alone. So when you have 60+million humans on the brink of retiring, it only takes a very small % of them moving to Hawaii to really cause the market here to escalate. Very few "poor" retirees come to Hawaii.

Combine that fact with the politics of NO as they exist today in this state, and you can see that Demand is increasing while Supply is hampered in many ways.

The third major component is that Hawaii is always behind the mainland by about 10 years in terms of society. The baby boom in Hawaii took place in the mid-60's. So now there is two ends of the demographic spectrum buying homes here - the retirees & the young, working adults who build their mansions

I predict that Hawaiian Real Estate Markets will continue to rise steadily(though not at the recent 40% rates) until the politics of NO come to grips with the reality of demographics & land use in Hawaii.

And no matter what, when the boomers start dying off around 2020, the economy will be in for a long term slowdown that could rival the 1930's. Better pray that event does not coincide with the decline of the petro-dollar in favor of the petro-Euro, which is a very real possibility.

I just love the combined science of Economics/Sociology.

My what a difference a few months makes in the arena of combined science of Economics/Sociology.

HONOLULU (AP) - Realtors said Friday that home sales in Hawaii fell sharply in August, but median sale prices were still well above a year ago.

The number of existing single-family home sales fell by about a third in August on the Big Island, Kauai and Maui compared to the same month last year.

The Honolulu Board of Realtors reported single-family home and condominium sales down on Oahu last month as well, while median sales prices remained above August of last year.

On the Big Island, 169 homes were sold in August, a 34 percent drop from the 256 sold in August 2005. The median sales price fell from $429,500 to $370,000.

Home sales were notably lower in the resort areas of North and South Kohala. Only 11 homes were sold in South Kohala, compared to 29 in August 2005, according to Hawaii Information Service.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...908&ID=6007030

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

I was shocked 377 lots sold in Puna in August 2005...oh my !!

[damontucker]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

The median sale price on the Big Island slipped 14% in August

http://starbulletin.com/2006/09/08/b...s/story01.html
http://pacific.bizjournals.com/pacif...l?surround=lfn

There were 145 vacant lots sold in August, but was that a fraction of the 597 that sold a year ago. A rush to buy lots in Puna district has lost steam -- 88 lots sold last month compared to 377 in August 2005. The same thing happened in Kau district, which saw 124 lots sell in August 2005 but only 24 last month.

SHHHHH! SHHHHH!

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

The median sale price on the Big Island slipped 14% in August

http://starbulletin.com/2006/09/08/b...s/story01.html
http://pacific.bizjournals.com/pacif...l?surround=lfn

There were 145 vacant lots sold in August, but was that a fraction of the 597 that sold a year ago. A rush to buy lots in Puna district has lost steam -- 88 lots sold last month compared to 377 in August 2005. The same thing happened in Kau district, which saw 124 lots sell in August 2005 but only 24 last month.

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

The information got in regards to the Discovery Harbour house auction
was not totally accurate :

Update on the auction sale prices

Model Home : $351,000
House #773 : $300,000
House #373 : $287,500
House #533 : $273,000
House #374 : $272,500
House #450 : $270,000

Then the next seven houses were sold for $260,000. There 3 houses left to be sold, which one of them received a bid, but it wasn't immediately accepted.Thus leaving two unsold houses.