Abercrombie running for governor

[Frankie's Market]

Well, it's official now. Neil Abercrombie is tossing his hat into the ring for the governor's race next year. Naturally, he enters this campaign as the odds on favorite. But in Hawaii politics, nothing is a sure thing.

I still remember 22 years ago, when another incumbent US congressman decided to take a shot at the governor's office after a long tenure in Washington. Like Abercrombie, he entered the race as the heavy favorite. And he led the polls up until the eve of election day.

His name?

Cec Heftel.

[TuNnL]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

Neil Abercrombie is tossing his hat into the ring for the governor's race next year. Naturally, he enters this campaign as the odds on favorite.

You think so? We don’t know who’s running yet, but Mufi has made no secret he’s interested in Washington Place. We hear all this hoopla about Abercrombie’s sizable campaign war chest, but remember, many of those contributions were raised from sources outside the state. In fact, some are based in foreign countries! Suffice to say, his revised advantage over Mufi dollar-for-dollar is much less then the pundits are making it out to be. Remember, Lingle promoted the fact she had executive experience (Maui mayor) coming into the job. Which candidate can argue they have that?

remember 22 years ago, when another incumbent US congressman decided to take a shot at the governor's office after a long tenure in Washington. Like Abercrombie, he entered the race as the heavy favorite. And he led the polls up until the eve of election day.

His name?

Cec Heftel.

As outlined in former Gov. Cayetano’s new book, Heftel made the same mistake Lingle made in her first run for the state’s top job. Pulling back on advertising/PR during the final weeks of the campaign. I don’t think a veteran politician like Abercrombie would ignore history, considering he’s a teacher by trade.

[scrivener]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

Naturally, he enters this campaign as the odds on favorite.

Whoa whoa whoa. I can see the argument for labeling him the frontrunner, but odds-on favorite? You're saying that as of today, he's got a better chance of winning than of not winning? No way, especially not with the mayor almost surely considering a run at Washington Place (unless he now decides to go for Abercrombie's seat; it wouldn't surprise me if they've chatted about this very scenario). "Odds-on favorite" is laying it on extremely thickly.

In fact, I think that if the mayor and the Congressman go head-to-head for the party's nomination, it will be the mayor's race. For reasons I can't really fathom, he's extremely popular. Oahu Caucasians don't do well on the neighbor islands in governors' races, for one.

I suspect that Abercrombie's risking his House seat because he really doesn't have anything to lose; there's a Presidential appointment waiting for him somewhere down the line if this doesn't work out.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

You think so? We don’t know who’s running yet, but Mufi has made no secret he’s interested in Washington Place.

Tunnl, here's why it is much more likely that if the Mufster makes a move in 2010, it will be for the congressional seat that Neil is vacating.

1) The congressional seat is a federal office, which means that the state's "resign to run" law does not apply. This means that Mufi does not have to resign from Honolulu Hale if he runs for U.S. Rep. So whether he wins or loses a congressional bid in 2010, Mufi still has the mayor's job to go back to and plan for another campaign in 2012. (Maybe Akaka's senatorial seat, if Danny retires.) But if Mufi runs for the governor's office, he has to step down as mayor. Now if he loses a bid for the governorship, that puts him in the difficult position of trying to raise campaign funds while out of political office. And in this struggling economy, that's going to be tough.

2) Mufi's ultimate political ambition goes beyond any city/state office. From the time he served as a White House intern, his goal has always been to be a US Senator. Because of two earlier failed bids for Congress, Mufi has had to build up his political resume by running for City Council and Mayor. But the original dream did not die. As has often been said about him, he has been infected with a permanent case of Potomac Fever.

3) Running for governor puts Mufi in a head-to-head battle with Neil Abercrombie. OTOH, any opponent he faces in a 2010 congressional election will not be nearly as formidable. There's a big difference between running against the likes of Colleen Hanabusa and Charles Djou vs. taking on a much higher-profile and better-financed Abercrombie. If you don't know that, then it's back to Hawaii politics 101 for you. (Even if Ed Case should run for Congress again, he is nowhere near as strong as Abercrombie is now.)

As outlined in former Gov. Cayetano’s new book, Heftel made the same mistake Lingle made in her first run for the state’s top job. Pulling back on advertising/PR during the final weeks of the campaign. I don’t think a veteran politician like Abercrombie would ignore history, considering he’s a teacher by trade.

GMAB! That is not the reason why Heftel lost the '86 Democratic primary.

Support for Heftel suddenly dropped after a vicious smear campaign was started against him. Basically, somebody leaked a memo from the prosecutor's office, which indicated that Heftel was being investigated for child molestation. The memo was supposed to be confidential since it was part of an ongoing investigation, but obviously, this "someone" had a political agenda in mind. The investigation ultimately did not lead to any prosecution. But in the meantime, this kind of publicity did swift and irreperable damage to Heftel's image and reputation in the days leading up to election day.

Cayetano can say whatever he wants and state the most altruistic reasons why he thinks John Waihee pulled off the upset against Cec Heftel. (Because of Waihee's "Heart and Soul" campaign theme. Oh right! That explains everything. ) But Tunnl, remember that you are being spoon-fed your information from Cayetano. Of course, the man isn't going to admit to having any kind of inside information about the origin and the dissemination of the Heftel smear. Of course, he only talks about the details in this case that have been publically known for many years. As far as Cayetano is concerned, the less he knows about the smear, the better his legacy will be. Whether Cayetano is telling everything he knows or not, my point is that his autobiography hardly constitutes as being an authoritative "final word" on the Heftel smear campaign and its impact on the election results. Sorry Tunnl, but a politician's memoirs are not a shortcut to doing thorough research.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

Whoa whoa whoa. I can see the argument for labeling him the frontrunner, but odds-on favorite? You're saying that as of today, he's got a better chance of winning than of not winning? No way, especially not with the mayor almost surely considering a run at Washington Place (unless he now decides to go for Abercrombie's seat; it wouldn't surprise me if they've chatted about this very scenario). "Odds-on favorite" is laying it on extremely thickly.

Okey-dokey. Take out "odd-on" and just call him the "favorite." I'm fine with that. I've no desire to get into a debate on the parsing of words.

In fact, I think that if the mayor and the Congressman go head-to-head for the party's nomination, it will be the mayor's race. For reasons I can't really fathom, he's extremely popular. Oahu Caucasians don't do well on the neighbor islands in governors' races, for one.

I don't disagree with the notion that Mufi could very well come out on top when it comes to the neighbor island vote. (In fact, read my original post carefully. I did say "upsets" can happen and that nothing is a guarantee.)

But read my second post as well, which talks about all the reasons why the Mufster is much more likely to make a bid for Washington DC instead of Washington Place.

I suspect that Abercrombie's risking his House seat because he really doesn't have anything to lose; there's a Presidential appointment waiting for him somewhere down the line if this doesn't work out.

That would definitely be a possibility. Win or lose the governorship, I'm sure that Abercrombie will find a way to stay active in politics till the day he dies,.... if that is what he desires.

[Ron Whitfield]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

At long last, we will finally have a worthwhile Gov. of Hawaii, once Neil takes office. Way over due.
And what a relief it will be to finally say sayonara to Lingle, also way over due.
This State has been stagnating for decades, wasting every glaring opportunity it has to be one of the most important states in America instead of the butt of deserved jokes, with no focus on the future to benefit it's citizensat all, not to mention jobs or services, self sustainability, tech business, internet speed no longer the slowest in the world, defenses against the impending doom that could befall the US at any moment and leave us high and dry, ready for acts of God/natural disaters of which we have been fortunate to avoid in recent decades, cultivation of industrial hemp, etc. The list of examples of high office negligence is endless, and neither Mufi or Lingle's poodle, the Lt. Gov., whatever his name is, will input anything to change from the present pathetic status quo. But NA will make some serious changes for the positive and have Hawaii closer to being the vangard in a vast array of ways that we have been sorely lacking in. The only bummer is that it can't happen today.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

I don't disagree with the notion that Mufi could very well come out on top when it comes to the neighbor island vote.

I donno. Mufi with his rail seems really friendly with developers. And the NI have been traditionally anti-development. That and the about face from "Do we need it/can we afford it" seems like it would be an easy target for any opponent.

[tutusue]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

If NA becomes governor I wonder if he'll keep twittering and showing up at HT picnics!

[Walkoff Balk]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

He will lose by a ponytail.

[Amati]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

As outlined in former Gov. Cayetano’s new book, Heftel made the same mistake Lingle made in her first run for the state’s top job. Pulling back on advertising/PR during the final weeks of the campaign.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/ap...plate=printart

The Honolulu Advertiser recently ran excerpts from former Gov. Ben Cayetano’s new biography "Ben, A Memoir, From Street Kid to Governor".
Quoted from the memoir:
Heftel must have known Waihee was chipping away at his big lead, but with a huge television buy to flood the airwaves with his television commercials for the final two weeks, he remained confident, he told me, that he could hold off Waihee.

Additionally, from the memoir:
No one really knows if the "smear" was a reason for Heftel's defeat. During the campaign, I met and talked to hundreds of people. Except for the conversation with Frank Fasi, not once did I hear anyone suggest that such a document existed or that Heftel was a homosexual; I heard nothing derogatory about his personal life. And when I met with Heftel at his condominium to plan our campaign for the general, he never uttered a word to me that such a document existed or that the Democrats were trying to smear him. I only found out about the document after the primary, when Heftel charged that he had been smeared.
One of Waihee's bumper stickers had the words "Heart and Soul" emblazoned on it. And that's what the 1986 primary election amounted to; I believe that Heftel lost not only because he ran a poor campaign and was a passionless campaigner — he lost because too many voters concluded that he did not have the heart to be governor of Hawai'i.

[TuNnL]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

any opponent he faces in a 2010 congressional election will not be nearly as formidable. There's a big difference between running against the likes of Colleen Hanabusa and Charles Djou vs. taking on a much higher-profile and better-financed Abercrombie.

I agree it is like the difference between David and Goliath in many respects, but let's not forget the long history of video-documented bitterness between Djou and Mufi. The two have been in city politics for enough years, and have been at odds enough times, that you can be sure that both campaigns will spend a good many hours combing the archives of Dateline Media, trying to uncover some “Gotcha!” rhetorical goodies. If Djou wins this battle, you can be sure Hanabusa will use the opportunity to leapfrog over the boys. Mufi may just decide to avoid this after surviving an emotionally draining mayoral re-election campaign. Then again, the pros of the Congressional race such that you outlined, may be too good to pass up. My point is, Mufi's camp will no doubt be weighing his options carefully.

As outlined in former Gov. Cayetano’s new book, Heftel made the same mistake Lingle made in her first run for the state’s top job. Pulling back on advertising/PR during the final weeks of the campaign.

That is not the reason why Heftel lost the '86 Democratic primary. Support for Heftel suddenly dropped after a vicious smear campaign was started against him ... my point is that his autobiography hardly constitutes as being an authoritative "final word" on the Heftel smear campaign and its impact on the election results.

The Honolulu Advertiser recently ran excerpts from former Gov. Ben Cayetano’s new biography "Ben, A Memoir, From Street Kid to Governor".
Quoted from the memoir:
No one really knows if the "smear" was a reason for Heftel's defeat. During the campaign, I met and talked to hundreds of people. Except for the conversation with Frank Fasi, not once did I hear anyone suggest that such a document existed or that Heftel was a homosexual; I heard nothing derogatory about his personal life. And when I met with Heftel at his condominium to plan our campaign for the general, he never uttered a word to me that such a document existed or that the Democrats were trying to smear him. I only found out about the document after the primary, when Heftel charged that he had been smeared.
One of Waihee's bumper stickers had the words "Heart and Soul" emblazoned on it. And that's what the 1986 primary election amounted to; I believe that Heftel lost not only because he ran a poor campaign and was a passionless campaigner — he lost because too many voters concluded that he did not have the heart to be governor of Hawai'i.

Indeed. Did a “smear campaign” have an effect on the outcome of the election? Probably. But certainly, it was not the only factor in Heftel’s loss as Frankie’s post implies, and perhaps not even the main one.

[Ron Whitfield]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

As Cayetano stated in his book, Cec lost largely because he simply didn't 'connect' with enuf of Hawaii.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

I agree it is like the difference between David and Goliath in many respects, but let's not forget the long history of video-documented bitterness between Djou and Mufi. The two have been in city politics for enough years, and have been at odds enough times, that you can be sure that both campaigns will spend a good many hours combing the archives of Dateline Media, trying to uncover some “Gotcha!” rhetorical goodies. If Djou wins this battle, you can be sure Hanabusa will use the opportunity to leapfrog over the boys.

That's going on the very shaky assumption that Djou will have an easy path to the GOP nomination. But if other popular Republicans enter the race (which is almost a certainly now that incumbent Abercrombie is stepping down), then Djou will have his hands full trying to wrest the GOP nomination from his rivals. I would say that folks like Bob Hogue, Sam Slom, and possibly Quentin Kawananakoa would give Djou a run for his money, and then some. In that case, Djou can ill afford to look too far ahead of what could be a tough primary contest.

C'mon, Tunnl! You've fallen a step behind in anticipating the ripple effects of the Abercrombie announcement.

Indeed. Did a “smear campaign” have an effect on the outcome of the election? Probably. But certainly, it was not the only factor in Heftel’s loss as Frankie’s post implies, and perhaps not even the main one.

Yes. And while you're at with using Cayetano's book to reveal the "truth" behind the Heftel smear, why don't you also share excerpts from Rob Blagojevich's upcoming book to share with everyone the "truth" behind the Illinois pay-to-play scandal.

[Walkoff Balk]

Re: Abercrombie running for governor

Indeed. Did a “smear campaign” have an effect on the outcome of the election? Probably.

Was this the blueprint for the Hilary Clinton is a lesbian rumor?

[Linkmeister]

Re: Next Lt. Governor?

Abercrombie doesn't have a snow flake's chance in Hell. Too many people remember his past.

Against Duke Aiona? I'd say Neil's nearly a shoo-in if it were one-on-one with him. It's Mufi I'd be concerned about if I were Neil.