Primary Election Day Live Thread

[pzarquon]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Hey... looks like they were just rearranging things. Links to the first printout now available online. Clicking 'em gets you the "insufficient privileges" error again, but I'll bet that when they flip the switch, they'll be ready to read.

This will be where the statewide summary will surface. Start clicking reload!

ETA: And here we go!

U.S. Senate:
Daniel Akaka (D) 47,466
Ed Case (D) 36,642
Jerry Coffee (R) 3,853
Mark Beatty (R) 1,913

2nd Congressional District:
Mazie Hirono (D) 10,403
Colleen Hanabusa (D) 7,762
Matt Matsunaga (D) 6,603
[...]
Bob Hogue (R) 3,005
Quentin Kawananakoa (R) 2,510

Governor:
Randy Iwase (D) 43,062
William Aila (D) 13,259

District 25 (for Scrivener):
Della Belatti (D) 752
John Steelquist (D) 725
Joy Turbeville (D) 289
Tracy Okubo (R) 216

[Miulang]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

First results in: Akaka ahead 113 votes 66.47% 40/565 precincts reporting.
Case: 57 voted 33.53% 40/565 precincts reporting

It's gonna be a loooong night!

Miulang

[scrivener]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

I can't believe it. I predicted Mazie Hirono was going to win, but was a little embarrassed to post it here. She's ahead right now.

Edit: I worked precicnt 30-03 (Kapalama) today. I announced my prediction that 40% of registered voters would cast ballots, and it came out right around there, not counting absentee ballots in our district. So I think I was off -- if my neighborhood is any indication, it'll be close to (but not quite) fifty percent of registered voters casting ballots.

[pzarquon]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

I'm very surprised she's got such a commanding lead. I thought the whole vote the for 2nd Congressional District would be scattered all over the place, and that the winner would barely have 20 percent of the vote. Even though the early returns are largely absentee/mail-in, in the case of that particular race I think it's clear that Hirono is the front runner by far.

[Konaguy]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Thank goodness they got the bugs out of the system.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Funny watching Hawaii people view election results with bated breath.

I have always been able to predict election outcomes in Hawaii with racial voting assumptions.

Thats why Case will lose. Cuz Japanese will not vote for him.
Thats why Hirono will win (or Hanabusa or Matsunaga). Cuz Japanese will vote for them.

Easy.

You guyz waste too much energy trying to call Hawaii elections. Its 90% about race. (not 100, but 90)

[pzarquon]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Wonder what there will be to make of the way the Akaka/Case race breaks down between Honolulu and the other counties?

Statewide: Akaka 56%, Case 43%
Honolulu: Akaka 53%, Case 46%
Hawaii County: Akaka 58%, Case 40%
Maui County: Akaka 67%, Case 31%
Kauai County: 61%, 37%

By far Akaka's weakest showing was in (presumably more urban) Honolulu, compared to the (presumably more rural) neighbor islands. I guess Case was right to essentially write off the other islands and focus on O'ahu... ironic, considering his current job is supposedly representing those other islands!

[scrivener]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Thats why Case will lose. Cuz Japanese will not vote for him. Thats why Hirono will win (or Hanabusa or Matsunaga). Cuz Japanese will vote for them.

Easy.

Cayetano beat Lingle. Lingle beat Hirono. Sure, you said 90% but that's waaaaaaay too generous.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Cayetano beat Lingle. Lingle beat Hirono. Sure, you said 90% but that's waaaaaaay too generous.

Okay, so we disagree about the exact percentage.

But Hawaii voting is about race.

Period.

I put my mothers health and life on it.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Cayetano beat Lingle.

Cayetano beat lingle because of more than one race. It was plantation localism. Japanese, Filipinos and other Asians outnumber haoles. Hawaiians as always don't matter either way.

[Miulang]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Wonder what there will be to make of the way the Akaka/Case race breaks down between Honolulu and the other counties?

Statewide: Akaka 56%, Case 43%
Honolulu: Akaka 53%, Case 46%
Hawaii County: Akaka 58%, Case 40%
Maui County: Akaka 67%, Case 31%
Kauai County: 61%, 37%

By far Akaka's weakest showing was in (presumably more urban) Honolulu, compared to the (presumably more rural) neighbor islands. I guess Case was right to essentially write off the other islands and focus on O'ahu... ironic, considering his current job is supposedly representing those other islands!

Akaka's strong standing on Maui may be because he actively courted the union vote. Just the other day, he was on Maui showing his support for the workers at Makena Resort (the Seibu property that was just put on the market). I doubt he can do much to save the 800+ employees' jobs there, but I'm sure his presence in Wailea brought him at least 300 votes.

Miulang

[scrivener]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

How did John Waihee win two elections and Duke Aiona one?

[kamuelakea]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

Lingle beat Hirono. Sure, you said 90% but that's waaaaaaay too generous.

You bring up the one time in Hawaii history since John Burns when race was not predictive. That happened for 2 reasons.

1) Hawaii was in the depths of a deep recession.
2) Hirono is an immigrant and Hawaii AJA's are as xenophobic against Japanese Nationals as they are about anyone else. Many supported Hirono out of racist tendancies but not with the energy they would support a true plantation Japanese decendent. That's why she lost that election.

That's why I say 90%.

You know what I mean scrivener. No Ack.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

How did John Waihee win two elections and Duke Aiona one?

Because plantation Japanese are really Hawaiian wannabees. They liked the fact that Waihee was married to an AJA. It helped to blur the difference between a Native Hawaiian and an AJA. That's what most AJAs in Hawaii want. A new and improved "Hawaiian" which is really a Japanese with a Haku lei.

That is Ed Cases biggest mistake. He assumed he would get Japanese votes like Waihee did. But he won't. Japanese hate haoles who boink deah chicks. They are irritated when a "republican" haole is banging one of their own. So Case actually gets less Japanese votes because his wife is Japanese. Case would get more votes from japanese if his wife was a Hawaiian.

Get it?

[helen]

Re: Primary Election Day Live Thread

I don't know about now but in the past the State of Hawaii normally does three print outs on the night of the election. First print out may show one candidate ahead and on the second print out that same candidate might be behind.