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Thread: Hurricane Flossie

  1. #101

    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Quote Originally Posted by Fat Jeff View Post
    Fear not fellow HT brothers & sisters! The Fat Jeff clan is prepared for this storm...that alone virtually guarantees that it will not come anywhere close to us!
    I hear you brother! I did a little "topping off" so my luck adds to yours.

  2. #102
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    The 11pm advisory (23) is out.

    date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; lat long of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

    08/13 11:00 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
    08/13 2:00 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
    08/13 5:00 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
    08/13 8:00 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
    08/13 11:00 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE


    By the way I sort of noticed that the links that myself and others have been using in this thread pointing a specific bulletin from the weather service is actually pointing to the lastest bulletin from the weather service.

    Also I am not going to post the 2am, 5am and 8am bulletins until 9am (HST) unless someone else wants to do it.

  3. #103

    Default Re: Storm Systems

    The BI is going to get some fun weather:

    "HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT."


    Oahu is expected to get an inch or two. That and high surf is all we're expected to get.

    I think some people in this thread are getting really worked up over this. While it's good to plan and prepare, it sounds like some are about ready to have anxiety attacks. Chill. Do what you can and don't worry about the rest. What's going to happen is going to happen.

  4. #104
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND, they would be able to do all the million and one little jobs that might be needed now...or maybe even simply sit back and watch the show in relative peace and tranquility.

  5. #105
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Quote Originally Posted by SusieMisajon View Post
    Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND.
    And that's what some of us have been doing for the last a couple of days. Preparing beforehand. As it stands right now there is no official word that this storm is going to hit the island of Oahu within the next 36 hours.

    Now anyone in the state who has been keeping up with current events know that there is this hurricane that is out there. And each person in their own way and/or style is going to prepare for this storm with whatever resources they have at their disposal.

    So please don't worry about us.

  6. #106
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Quote Originally Posted by helen View Post
    And that's what some of us have been doing for the last a couple of days. Preparing beforehand. As it stands right now there is no official word that this storm is going to hit the island of Oahu within the next 36 hours.

    Now anyone in the state who has been keeping up with current events know that there is this hurricane that is out there. And each person in their own way and/or style is going to prepare for this storm with whatever resources they have at their disposal.

    So please don't worry about us.
    Of course I'm worried. My family still lives in Hawaii...and some of them are in Hilo. My son is in Hilo, visiting his Granny, and I KNOW she hasn't listened to a word I've said, about prepping, over the past few years.

    The thing is, being prepped well beforehand not only saves stress, but also money. NOBODY can prep for any major disaster with just a few trips to an already crowded supermarket, much less pay for all that's needed. Prepping takes time and money and energy. Plus, given time to experiment and calm to think, mistakes can be rectified.

    I've been watching Big Island hurricane shoppers....they're buying toilet paper and ramen noodles and bottled water. I hope they've thought of cooking fuel for that saimin. Bottled water is much more expensive that having a water storage system in place...plus the bottled stuff won't last long if you use it for cooking and washing, too.

  7. #107
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Gecko, no anxiety attacks here, just a ton of caffeine and plenty of energy to be getting a lot done, meaning the usual Monday routine and this extra storm prep, and maybe also picking up on the energy from a bunch of extra calls and emails from caring mainlanders.

    I can't speak for others, of course but can assure you that reading my own written words that anxiety is far removed from them. I use things like this to get a ton of extra work done, sorta like when company's a'comin and so heck, I go into overdrive.

    That being said, now that I've seen Iniki's track in graphic....I know it really ain't over till it's past us and that anything can still happen.

  8. #108
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    OK what happened to the rest of the messages that were here? Did the board crash and get rebooted?
    I'm still here. Are you?

  9. #109

    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Quote Originally Posted by mel View Post
    OK what happened to the rest of the messages that were here? Did the board crash and get rebooted?
    Weird. I thought I needed to clear my cache or something. Definitely gone missing.

  10. #110
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Quote Originally Posted by SusieMisajon View Post
    Of course, if anyone had prepped BEFOREHAND, they would be able to do all the million and one little jobs that might be needed now...or maybe even simply sit back and watch the show in relative peace and tranquility.
    Our office is closed, so I'm going out for some emergency coffee and donuts! (essential morning...er, hurricane survival supplies)

  11. #111
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    OK, I just noticed these messages got re-arranged and put into a new thread.

    Well just for the record, Flossie is downgraded to a category 2 storm.

    Bulletin #24 @ 5AM

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
    NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
    500 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

    ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

    ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

    AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

    FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
    The weakening is a good trend.
    I'm still here. Are you?

  12. #112
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    The eye is falling apart, which means Flossie is weakening ever-so-slightly, but it also expands the range for TSF winds, up to 145 miles now.
    Also note that just two days ago the prediction was for 8' to 10', and now is for 20' to 25'.
    Course appears to be wobbling slightly.
    .
    .

    That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

  13. #113

    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Quote Originally Posted by LikaNui View Post
    The eye is falling apart, which means Flossie is weakening ever-so-slightly, but it also expands the range for TSF winds, up to 145 miles now.
    Also note that just two days ago the prediction was for 8' to 10', and now is for 20' to 25'.
    Course appears to be wobbling slightly.
    I'm not familiar enough with the dynamics of storms in this region, but we always worried when a storm slowed in forward motion. Of course, those storms did not have collapsing eyes. Slightly OT, but I think Shari Shima has done an outstanding job explaining the storm.

  14. #114
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    So what do you guys make of this? To me it looks like Maui is within the outskirts of this storm and the Big Island easily engulfed. Looks more eastern than I had thought it would be. Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

  15. #115

    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    They get a cloudy day. Just because the clouds are part of Flossie doesn't mean they will experience any usual weather. Oahu is expected to get 1-2 inch of rain. Maui looks to be the same distance from the track so I'd expect somewhere around the same. Just a windy rainy day.

  16. #116
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Quote Originally Posted by GeckoGeek View Post
    They get a cloudy day. Just because the clouds are part of Flossie doesn't mean they will experience any usual weather. Oahu is expected to get 1-2 inch of rain. Maui looks to be the same distance from the track so I'd expect somewhere around the same. Just a windy rainy day.
    that would work for me!

  17. #117
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Quote Originally Posted by lavagal View Post
    So what do you guys make of this?
    For one thing you are looking at the image provided by the National Weather Service Office.

    If you look at this image from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for roughly the same time period you will see that the while Flossie is touching Maui it is the fringe of the storm.

  18. #118
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    Default Re: Storm Systems

    The 8am advisory (24A) is out.

    date and time (HST); advisory bulletin; lat long of eye; distance from Hilo; distance from Honolulu

    08/13 11 am; #21; 15.3N 150.6W; 425 miles SE; 635 miles SE
    08/13 2 pm; #21A; 15.6N 151.5W; 365 miles SE; 570 miles SE
    08/13 5 pm; #22; 15.9N 152.0W; 330 miles SE; 535 miles SE
    08/13 8 pm; #22A; 16.2N 152.5W; 295 miles SE; 500 miles SE
    08/13 11 pm; #23; 16.4N 153.2W; 260 miles SE; 455 miles SE
    08/14 2 am; #23A; 16.6N 153.5W; 240 miles SSE; 440 miles SE
    08/14 5 am; #24; 16.9N 154.1W; 205 miles SSE; 390 miles SE
    08/14 8 am; #24A; 17.0N 154.4W; 190 miles SSE; 370 miles SE

  19. #119

    Default Re: Storm Systems

    Anyone blogging about the storm from the Big Island?

  20. #120

    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Its Mauna Loa.

    Hurricanes are altitude bound. We are going to get hammered in bad tropical storm weather, but hitting the wall like it will (considering it stays on the same course and not bounce off approx 150mi offshore) means that the eye is going to dissolve.

    pax

  21. #121

    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Just wanted to offer best wishes to everyone who might be in the path and here's to hoping it's just a glancing blow.

  22. #122
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Well it's 9:38am and the weather outside my home in Keaau down by the ocean is heavy overcast with absolutely no winds or rain. Or the calm before the storm

  23. #123
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    Quote Originally Posted by craigwatanabe View Post
    Well it's 9:38am and the weather outside my home in Keaau down by the ocean is heavy overcast with absolutely no winds or rain. Or the calm before the storm
    Are you in the eye?

  24. #124
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    According to this image the answer to that is no. The eye of the storm has yet to touch any land. And if did there would be calm after the storm and not before.

  25. #125
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    Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

    No. If we were the sky would be a nice sunny day. I think the hurricane is stalled somewhere off of the Big Island right now as the winds are absolutely still and the sky is getting darker at least in Keaau.

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