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  • Are we headed for a depression?

    I heard Gerald Celente on talk radio last night. He's the founder of the Trends Research Institute. He's internationally known, and has been on Larry King Live, Oprah, CNN, and a whole host of other venues. He predicted many things in the past, including the 1987 stock market crash. He has some rather dire predictions for the United States and eventually the world economy and recommends doing everything you can to pay off debt and minimize expeditures. Everything he's predicted regarding the economy has come to past or is in progress. I think he's really on to something. If you think gas will cap at $4/gallon, you might want to think again...

  • #2
    Re: Are we headed for a depression?

    I'm sure that none of you will be surprised that I bring this thread up, yet again http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthr...light=pandemic as it's always good to be prepared for anything, poverty included.
    http://thissmallfrenchtown.blogspot.com/
    http://thefrenchneighbor.blogspot.com/

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    • #3
      Re: Are we headed for a depression?

      We just filled out mandatory info sheets at work where we provided info regarding the number of people in our household and whether or not those people were allergic to any medications, specifically antibiotics.
      The reason? Oh, just in case there is a pandemic or some such disaster. It seems we'll get first dibs on meds. I guess they want the health care professionals up and running in such an event.
      This is the very first time I've been asked to provide such info. Makes you wonder if someone knows something and isn't sharing.

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      • #4
        Re: Are we headed for a depression?

        YES....I believe we "are headed" to absolute depression but....I am not yet convinced, thank God that we are going to enter and spend some years in depression.

        I see that the Fed is panicked and they freaked out and lowered an interest rate on a sunday! they then lowered another one today. They have done such rare and creative things that I at least need the Dummies series book on Economics to understand WHAT they really did, but suffice it to say that plenty of people have confirmed that what they have done, more than one thing.....hasn't been done since the Great Depression. THAT....speaks volumes.

        Mama always said that actions speak louder than words and the Fed is working to prevent Depression. they aren't just working to try to give us a softer vs. harder recession.

        Dang! it was ominous when we started our year with Countrywide, Citibank and Merrell Lynch all in deep trouble. Since january? nothing but more and worse news, dramatic news.

        Chrysler told all employees worldwide that they will take a mandatory two week vacation in July. Delta is just now offering approximately half of their entire work force.....30,000 a severance package for early retirement....read that....just to quit!

        Sheesh.... it's BAD and unlike us....the Fed probably has data we can't see and won't get wind of. What huge company is next? How is The Principal Group that so many 401Ks are invested in, and how's Metlife, for example? I have to wonder. Old companies have fallen into deep trouble, like Citi...so, how's the really old Liberty Mutual?

        Can this be prevented? Can we not go into depression? Praying to God so.....these islands are funded by tourism...dear God, a depression?!!

        There are so many ways to "cook the books" and do what some call legal, but really "creative" ways to move money around in these modern times.....and this is why I suspect we don't yet know what the big wallstreet and the Fed knows...names of some other HUGE companies that are in deep trouble and the Fed is trying to prevent a gigantic loss of jobs by hoping to help the companies not yet completely bankrupt or whatever we should call them.
        Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

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        • #5
          Re: Are we headed for a depression?

          to clarify the above post about Delta Air Lines, the newspaper titles are a bit over dramatic, the truth is they are offering 30,000 employees who are eligible, but will only accept 2,000 of those for severance. That is not as dramatic as the headlines make it sound and not uncommon in business in general:

          ATLANTA - Delta Air Lines, faced with a weak economy, dimmer hopes of a merger with Northwest Airlines Corp. and record fuel prices, said yesterday that it would offer voluntary severance payouts to about 30,000 employees - more than half its work force - and cut U.S. capacity an extra 5 percent.

          Delta hopes to reduce 2,000 non-pilot jobs in the United States, or 3.6 percent of its work force, through buyouts and voluntary retirements for which more than half its employees are eligible, wrote Chief Executive Officer Richard H. Anderson and President Ed Bastian in a memo yesterday.
          n'importe

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          • #6
            Re: Are we headed for a depression?

            Thank you, Kaukura! whew...none of the few news sources I read yesterday, nor the one I heard broadcast said a thing about them having a set amount that they will accept and there is a huge difference between 30,000 and 2,000. (Delta was indeed in financial trouble how long ago? Hope they aren't, now)
            Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

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            • #7
              Re: Are we headed for a depression?

              Man when the stocks fall a few hundred suddenly we're a bunch of chicken littles. It wasn't that long ago when the Dow Jones Industrial average broke headlines when it rose above 1000.

              But to prepare one must start hedging all investments. Stuff like precious metals seem to work during these times. And remember the Great Depression had it's downfalls, but it did create quite a few millionaires as well. Money doesn't hide it just get's unproportionally divided making the rich get richer and...well you know the rest.
              Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

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              • #8
                Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                ::::looks left
                looks right::::

                um, hello? Havenʻt you all lived in the same Hawaiʻi as me since the 1980s? It was only within the last decade that I stopped saying that I have spent my entire adult life in a bear market.

                Let's review:

                -Japanese real estate bubble bursts in the mid-1980s (when I graduated from high school)
                -negative equity is a real issue for Hawaiʻi from 1988-1994, and financing options that fleece us we can enjoy today were not available then.
                -Japanese tourists, who drive the industry, were at an all-time low, consistently, for two decades, because our economy seems to be as tied to Asia as it is our US counterparts.

                So get a trade, get a grip on your finances, and get ready for the lean times. They'll wizen the arrogance out of us, as they had back then. Ten years isn't long enough to make us forget all of that, is it? Besides, this is how its supposed to happen--economies are cyclical, as is everything else.

                Chill.

                pax

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                • #9
                  Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                  Originally posted by Pua'i Mana'o View Post
                  ::::looks left
                  looks right::::

                  Besides, this is how its supposed to happen--economies are cyclical, as is everything else.

                  Chill.
                  I'm not chillin, I'm gellin As you said these things are cyclical and it's wise to follow these and take advantage of both the down and upswings. When 9-11 hit I called my broker and told him to buy up as much as I could afford on stocks that had plummeted in the hours after the twin towers fell.

                  Same thing goes for home ownership. People are buying homes that are overpriced but low interest rates. That's rediculous! I tell my friends to buy when housing prices are at their lowest and interest rates are higher. Eventually the rates will drop as housing inventory goes up (mostly from foreclosures). That triggers another interest rate drop to encourage home buying. That's when it's time to refinance your higher interest rate mortgage loan into something more manageable.

                  You can renegotiate your interest rate on your mortgage, but you cannot renegotiate the purchase price of your home.

                  Depression? The US dollar would have to practically bust wide open for that to happen, and no world market would allow that to happen as the US dollar is the hedge against all other foreign markets.
                  Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                    "Man when the stocks fall a few hundred suddenly we're a bunch of chicken littles."

                    Not all of us! The stock market has not been hardly even peripheral to what I've been posting about on this thread and the "polls" one. big deal, an inflated market went down a bit, heck, for pure correction....the market hasn't gone down nearly enough....if only this were a mere correction. It isn't...because it is not focused on the stock market.

                    This is about the country's largest mortgage company being in deep doo, it's oldest or biggest bank, dang I read so many reports but lack a photographic memory, and it's largest stock brokerage firm....all being in horrible trouble at the very same time, and....many other companies, but that isn't all. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in financial trouble, too, along with a ton of smaller mortgage companies belly-up.

                    In fact, it's about more large things, some huge.....than my busy self can remember to type at the moment. I wish this was a stock market upset, but it isn't, and oh yeah, that dollar that it was said is the hedge for the world....cough cough....not now, it isn't. It's been in free fall, and oh yeah....

                    all of my life we Texas rednecks joked about putting money away into a Swiss bank account cuz they have been the untouchables for so long, and seemingly immune to major financial problems....not anymore! I don't have it's proper name but the biggest bank in Switzerland lost 8 BILLION....something like that, last year. It even reportedly operated in the red last year....why? because of being heavily involved in our economy. This has been unheard of in my lifetime or someone failed to report on it...Swiss banks in severe pain.

                    We may not arrive into depression but we are headed there. Watch and listen and as the news continues, or will these huge and really bad reports magically cease in april?

                    The Federal Reserve just used more than one "creative fix" that had not been used since the Great Depression but we've had how many recessions since then? That...tells me a lot and I am sorry...it ain't good. No chicken little here, but maybe that's the best way to deal with it all and not let it bother us....just say it's "the sky is falling" doomsayers and forget about it.
                    Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                      [QUOTE=Karen;188210it was said is the hedge for the world....cough cough....not now, it isn't. It's been in free fall, and oh yeah....

                      No chicken little here, but maybe that's the best way to deal with it all and not let it bother us....just say it's "the sky is falling" doomsayers and forget about it.[/QUOTE]

                      When the US dollar coughs the world does get sick but I wouldn't say the dollar is in a free fall. It may be down but by far it is still a powerful currency that foreign countries rate their currency against.
                      Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                        It may not be in freefall today, Haven't checked, but it literally has been many days in the last couple of weeks. I wish I had a chocolate bar for every time Perry and Price have reported in the last oh....3 weeks...."the dollar hit an alltime low today" or words to that effect.

                        Editing this in....just found more about Chrysler....they have a workforce of 44,000 and are aiming to reduce that by 8,000 to 10,000 workers.

                        Delta Airlines does say that if more than 2,000 of its employees agree to accept the severance package that more will be allowed to leave.

                        United Air is grounding 20 planes to save money. Sounds like they aren't hurting as badly as.
                        Last edited by Karen; March 19, 2008, 04:43 PM.
                        Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                          Originally posted by Karen View Post
                          It may not be in freefall today, Haven't checked, but it literally has been many days in the last couple of weeks. I wish I had a chocolate bar for every time Perry and Price have reported in the last oh....3 weeks...."the dollar hit an alltime low today" or words to that effect.
                          If you notice everytime Michael W. Perry announces the price of Gold, Larry Price will "Boo" Apparently some of us bought gold when it almost hit $1000/oz.

                          Anyway economists always tell consumers that the market needs to adjust. Well the last time they said that, 9-11 hit and the stock market adjusted just like they promised.

                          I think from previous bull markets where the dollar was just shooting up like a rocket with nothing to support it's gains, an adjustment was needed and we're feeling it right now.

                          To me we're not heading into a depression, the stock market is merely correcting itself if you can believe that.
                          Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                            You may be right about the market, as I agree it can correct more from its ridiculous level. The market just isn't my focus at this time.

                            If the market were the only news right now, or the market and JUST...countrywide, for instance...no biggee but then if that were the case....the Fed would not be using "creative tools" that is didn't use through all of the other recessions since 1929, for example. See? What is the Fed so concerned about that is making it use tools for the very first time since the Great depression?

                            PS, Price didn't buy at near 1000.....he just sold his gold not long ago. They've talked about that. I think he kept boo'ing for fun, or cuz he wished he could make even more and he may have sold like back during or even before the holidays. I dunno...I heard them say he did sell but since uh....last oct...life's been one busy blur, lol.

                            Rut row....here's the dollar to euro chart....about middle of the page and the last column is March....no leveling at all this month... but did bounce up for a day or two...no wonder so many newssources are calling this a free fall. I think it is.

                            http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert
                            Last edited by Karen; March 19, 2008, 04:53 PM.
                            Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Are we headed for a depression?

                              Well come on now look at that chart and look at the incremental changes over an entire year that's projected. Yes it's dropping but at one-cent per month for a 10-month period only equates to a 10% drop over a year's period. Remember we're in an election year and the dollar fluctuates wildly during the period fronting the General election.

                              I've seen stock drop faster than that. Currency may be one way to track an economy however it's also a volatile way as well.

                              As for Countrywide. The feds had to help them out because so many people were affected by their sub-prime lending habits. This isn't the first time there was a Government bail out of a private corporation. Remember Boeing?

                              That time the US Government had to step in simply because of the defense contracts that needed to be fulfilled for military purposes. Countrywide needs a bail out because if it defaults, so do many home owners and right now there's too much equity to be foreclosed on for our economy to absorb. A depression? No way. Not all homebuyers borrowed thru unscrupulous lenders.

                              Many will find another way to dig themselves out of their financial mess thru refinancing. Lenders are already slackening their policies on late fees. Some have even renegotiated their APR's with lenders as most lenders need cash flow to keep their business going. Forclosure doesn't creat cash flow it creates unneeded capital or as we like to call it a white elephant.


                              If lenders loosen their policies on collection the government will bail them out with needed cash. But this also means a weaker dollar as federal reserve capital is used.
                              Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.

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