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Thread: Unsettled Economy & The Bailout

  1. #51

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Or ya can mail all your money, jewels and other goodies to me. I'll bury em in the yard and in about 2 months it'll all be considered 'cold cash'.

  2. #52
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Call me stupid (it wouldn't be the first time), but I am about ready to dump some money into a total stock market index fund like the Wilshire 5000. I am not ready to pull the trigger yet, but I am following things very closely. I should have a clearer picture within the next week or so. The stock market is presenting some interesting possibilities. If the market dips below 10,000, watch where the smart money goes. Just for reference, the market closed today at 10,609.

    If the market heads a whole lot lower, look for money to be dumped into the housing market. There are a lot of good buys out there. Not necessarily in Hawaii, which I think is still way overpriced compared to the market 5 to 8 years ago. Even though the number of sales is way down in Hawaii, people are still stubbornly holding on to their asking price for the most part.

    Certainly, there is a lot of doom and gloom at this time. But these are the times of opportunity for the savvy investor. For better or worse, these are exciting times. I see the glass as half full in terms of investment opportunities.

    I really don't know much about anything, I just act like I do on the Internet.
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    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  3. #53

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    A simple solution would be to build a time machine and travel into the future. Then, you can go online to a Wall Street Journal website. You will have guarantee winners because you know what happened in the past to make your investments.

  4. #54
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    I'm not keen on financials. Does this amount to bail out?
    "By concealing your desires, you may trick people into being cruel about the wrong thing." --Steven Aylett, Fain the Sorcerer
    "You gotta get me to the tall corn." --David Mamet, Spartan
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  5. #55

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    I think it does.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={BDABD1B6-8FCB-40A9-BD70-4E20692DB777}&siteid=mktw

    Commercial banks, investment banks and American International Group had borrowed a total of $121.2 billion from the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday, the Fed reported Thursday.

  6. #56
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    I just saw an interesting explanation of what happened to AIG on CNN International.

    1. Lehman goes under and guess who is the largest investor in Lehman? Right AIG. So AIG is suddenly in a world of hurt.

    2. AIG owns a subsidiary that is the largest lessor of commercial aircraft in the world. The subsidiary is the primary financier of aircraft to the commercial airlines.

    3. Since AIG's assets are now in trouble because of Lehman, their subsidiary has to cut back (maybe even stop) on airplane orders from Boeing and Airbus

    4. Commercial airlines cannot purchase new planes

    5. Boeing and Airbus cannot build new planes

    (do you see where this is going?)

    6. Airlines have to cut flights, raise prices, and layoff personnel

    7. Boeing and Airbus have to layoff personnel

    8. The US and World economy goes even deeper into recession

    So the answer is that the US taxpayer (through the governement) steps in and loans $85B to AIG. The US taxpayer is now the largest stockholder in AIG. The US taxpayer is now assuming the risk for the mismanagement at Lehman, AIG, and the Bush Administration. We are now on the hook for $85B.

    AIG should never have become (in effect) an investment banker for Lehmans. They are an insurance company not an investment banker. Unfortunately Bush, McCain, and the Republican party is opposed to governement regulation of any industry. When there is no regulation, big business will take risks that are not prudent. Why not? The taxpayer will just bail us out when (not if) we go under.

    It is like playing a football game with no referees.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  7. #57

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    I am not that well versed.
    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    I really don't know much about anything, I just act like I do on the Internet.
    I think you understand better than you realize, when you say this:
    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    It is like playing a football game with no referees.

  8. #58
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    I just saw an interesting explanation of what happened to AIG on CNN International.
    Thanks for laying things out, Matapule. Always good to know how things are connected. Oh what interesting times we're living in.
    "By concealing your desires, you may trick people into being cruel about the wrong thing." --Steven Aylett, Fain the Sorcerer
    "You gotta get me to the tall corn." --David Mamet, Spartan
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    Amateurs talk technology, professionals talk conditions." --(unknown)

  9. #59

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    The party's over by Pat Buchanan

  10. #60
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    At least Buchanan is finally listening to me. I been saying for years what a bunch of dingalings are the baby boomers. He describes them as "oblivious and self-indulgent". How true.
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  11. #61

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by timkona View Post
    At least Buchanan is finally listening to me. I been saying for years what a bunch of dingalings are the baby boomers. He describes them as "oblivious and self-indulgent". How true.
    How true,.... if you're a true believer of Pat Buchanan's slanted view of history. His article reads like a sorry attempt at revisionism in order to evade his generation's contributions to the economic mess we currently find ourselves in.

    Buchanan's flowery words cannot hide the fact that it was during the presidency of Richard Nixon that the federal government started upon a 28 year uninterrupted string of deficit spending. A streak that wasn't broken until the presidency of Bill Clinton (a baby boomer liberal) in 1998.

    It was also during the Nixon administration (of which Buchanan was a part of) that the US Treasury's gold window was closed. Of course, Nixon and his advisors never dreamed that this act would sow the seeds for a massive and crippling trade deficit, as they thought (rather arrogantly) that our manufacturing dominance would last indefinitely. They figured that the rest of the world would continually come a knockin' on our doors to buy our cars, toys, and washing machines and they would be happy to purchase them with US dollars, even though it no longer had any gold backing. Oh, how the times have changed!

    Now lesse. What were the baby boomers doing in 1970-71 when all this was happening? Still going to college or just starting their professional careers. None of them were in Congress or holding any major positions in the Nixon administration. The truth that Buchanan cannot face up to is that these disastrous policies took root way before the baby boomers began operating the levers in the federal government. Nixon was a member of the so-called Greatest Generation. Buchanan and his age peers were a part of the Silent Generation. They were the ones who were leading our country during this critical time.

    Buchanan's article is depressing. Not surprising since he provides no answers (either in his articles or his TV commentary) and sounds like a tired old man who has run out of ideas.

    But enough with the blame game. What will we do to get ourselves out from the economic turmoil that we find ourselves in? Hopefully, some answers will be provided in next Friday's debate. And the candidate who provides the most convincing responses will, I think, becomes the next President.
    This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

  12. #62
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Interesting read on the bank meltdowns.

    Satow interviews the above quoted former SEC director, and he spits out the blunt truth: The current excess leverage now unwinding was the result of a purposeful SEC exemption given to five firms.

    You read that right -- the events of the past year are not a mere accident, but are the results of a conscious and willful SEC decision to allow these firms to legally violate existing net capital rules that, in the past 30 years, had limited broker dealers debt-to-net capital ratio to 12-to-1.


    Instead, the 2004 exemption -- given only to 5 firms -- allowed them to lever up 30 and even 40 to 1.


    Who were the five that received this special exemption? You won't be surprised to learn that they were Goldman, Merrill, Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Morgan Stanley.


    Now were the SEC's actions the cause of the banks failures, or were the banks doomed for some other reason? Was the SECs actions a desperate attempt to keep them afloat?


    I have no clue.
    "By concealing your desires, you may trick people into being cruel about the wrong thing." --Steven Aylett, Fain the Sorcerer
    "You gotta get me to the tall corn." --David Mamet, Spartan
    "
    Amateurs talk technology, professionals talk conditions." --(unknown)

  13. #63

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    There is a ton of material on the net available about Senator Phil Gramm (R. Tex.)'s deregulation bill of trading back in 1999. Please check it out. It was snuck into a big funding bill late at night, it was over 260 pages long, and had been written by Wall Street lawyers, and it specifically prohibited regulatory oversight. Can you think of a legitimate reason to ban looking at the books? I can't, but maybe there is some reasonable explanation, I'd be interested to hear it.

    Because of time considerations it is considered unlikely that many if any in congress ever read the bill before voting it into law. That was the legal base for the economic disaster that has unfolded. I can think of 700 billion reasons why Gramm and those Wall Street lawyers should all go to prison and do the hardest, harshest, longest sentences this country could possibly impose. And one overriding reason why it won't happen...there probably are still enough Democrats and Republicans in congress who voted for it who do not want to be held responsible, that no justice will ever be extracted in this crime. Gramm was the McCain economic advisor who said that the American people are a nation of "whiners" about the economy that he destroyed. Where would you like to see him do his time, and how long should his sentence be?

  14. #64
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kalalau View Post
    And one overriding reason why it won't happen...there probably are still enough Democrats and Republicans in congress who voted for it who do not want to be held responsible, that no justice will ever be extracted in this crime.
    Sirens, bells, alarms, and whistles go off because you, Kalalau, nailed it!

    1999? Let's see that was the Clinton administration. Did Clinton veto that bill? NO! Did Clinton's economic advisors, Paul Volcker and Robert Rubin support that bill. YES! Who are among Obama's financial advisors? Volcker and Rubin!!!!!!!!!

    Did Bush and McCain continue to support that Gramm bill for 8 years? YES! Who is among McCain's financial advisors? Phil Gramm!!!!!!!!!!!

    Follow the money folks! We, the tax payers, are SOOOOOOOO screwed whether McCain or Obama is elected.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  15. #65

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    It was strategically inserted in a huge piece of legislation that would have been very inconvenient if not impossible to veto. Why? Why was that particular strategy employed? What party controlled Congress in 1999? Who always howled incessantly about the glory of deregulating everything? It was inserted at the last minute precisely so that it would not be read. This is an incredibly, astoundingly expensive case study/lesson in why you do not deregulate things. It should have been obvious after: California energy deregulation, airlines deregulation, S&L deregulation...

    And now: why did Republicans want to privatize social security? Why would you have set the system up so the books couldn't be looked at? Thank God they didn't get ahold of the social security fund!

  16. #66
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kalalau View Post
    It was strategically inserted in a huge piece of legislation that would have been very inconvenient if not impossible to veto.
    I disagree, Bill "I didn't have sex with THAT woman, Ms Lewinsky" Clinton needs to be held accountable for his part in the current economic mess. (See I'm not as much a "homer" as some people think I am.)

    And now: why did Republicans want to privatize social security?
    RED FLAG! RED FLAG! RED FLAG! Don't even think about falling for this ploy. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  17. #67
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    Lightbulb Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    We, the tax payers, are SOOOOOOOO screwed whether McCain or Obama is elected.
    Quoted for truth.

    We can’t be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans.

    — U.S. President Bill Clinton
    USA TODAY, page 2A
    11 March 1993

  18. #68

    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    Call me stupid (it wouldn't be the first time), but I am about ready to dump some money into a total stock market index fund like the Wilshire 5000. I am not ready to pull the trigger yet, but I am following things very closely. I should have a clearer picture within the next week or so.
    If you, in fact, have "a clearer picture" of what is going to be happening, then you have a lot more confidence than many financial gurus, like Jim Cramer (CNBC) and Ali Velshi (CNN). After rebounding on Thursday and Friday, the Dow took another wild 372 point drop today. Nobody knows for sure if the market is close to bottoming out even with a $700 billion govt. bailout, so be very careful.
    This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

  19. #69
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    We, the tax payers, are SOOOOOOOO screwed whether McCain or Obama is elected.
    Finally, folks are realizing that we are totally screwed no matter who gets in. But lets look at what these 2 bozos are saying about the economy: McCain ignorantly proclaims "the fundamentals of our economy are strong;" Obama panders to the voters declaring that while Americans have been "living up to their responsibilities, Washington has not." Well, he did at least get that 2nd half correct; but Americans living up to their responsibilities?? Who's been buying houses they can't afford; putting non-essential purchases on their credit cards; and in all trying to live like the Joneses?

    It's about time Washington goes after these CEOs and Board of Directors who hastened, if not outright created, their firms' economic crises; and puts some fine print on the bail-out checks to keep further mind-boggling, irresponsible behavior from occurring and holds these fat cats feet to the fire. I remember during my college years I qualified for a Pell Grant from the government. I was limited as to how I could use the money; it had to go towards tuition and books, not for a trip to Vegas or anything else. Will our taxpayer money, or more accurately, the taxpayer money of the GenXers and beyond being given to these firms have any kind of limitations? I doubt it. We are screwed.
    * I would be most content if my children grew up to be the kind of people who think decorating consists mostly of building enough bookshelves. *
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  20. #70
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Frankie's Market View Post
    If you, in fact, have "a clearer picture" of what is going to be happening, then you have a lot more confidence than many financial gurus, like Jim Cramer (CNBC) and Ali Velshi (CNN).
    Yes, FM, I made that quote a week ago. I said in a week. Yes, I now have a clearer picture. The bailout proposed by Paulson has made the market extremely volatile. Frankly, Frankie, I would be feeling better if the market had continued to fall. But this business of down 400 one day and up 400 the next is a market that is very dangerous for any investor. I will not be putting money into the market at this time.

    I have some CD's coming due in a month. I have no idea what I will do with them at this time.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  21. #71
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by U'ilani View Post
    It's about time Washington goes after these CEOs and Board of Directors who hastened, if not outright created, their firms' economic crises;
    The bailout proposed by Bush/Paulson is NOT in the best interests of the American taxpayer. I am totally opposed to it. The guilty, both Republicans and Democrats, go unpunished. What we need is a complete overhaul of our financial systems, a fundamental change in Administration policy and philosophy, and some "tough love" for the Ameriican consumer. What this translates to is huge increases in taxes. No more fighting wars wiith a credit card. From now on it has got to be pay as you go.

    Here is a start. The proposed cost of the bailout is $700B. So pull out of Iraq immediately. That will save $200B to $400B annually.

    And what the hell are we doing giving "free" money to private firms because they made bad decisions? Rewards for bad behavior? And where does this end? Now the US auto industry is talking about government financing for new tooling to be competitive. Why did they not make product adjustments as the market changed? I say let the US auto industry go under.

    How much more are we willing to take?

    Hang on kaumea (friends), we are about to embark on the ride of our life.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  22. #72
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    From the Asociated Press

    "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke bluntly warned reluctant lawmakers Tuesday they risk a recession with higher unemployment and increased home foreclosures if they fail to pass the Bush administration's $700 billion plan to bail out the financial industry. "

    Maybe a recession would be good for this country right at the moment to bring it back to its senses. Why should taxpayers be responsible for bad loans made to poor risks? Maybe we need more foreclosures.

    "Bernanke sketched a scenario in which neither businesses nor consumers could borrow money"

    What's wrong with that? It is called.....living within your means.

    "Despite expressions of unhappiness in both parties, the prospects for legislation seemed strong, with lawmakers eager to adjourn this week or next for the elections."

    And do they propose we are going to pay for this? It will be repaid by much higher taxes which will lead to higher unemployment and more home foreclosures......ergo, a recession.

    "Differences remained, though, including a demand from many Democrats and some Republicans to strip executives at failing financial firms of lucrative "golden parachutes" on their way out the door."

    That's right! The guys who headed these companies should not be rewarded with any kind of lucrative severence package.

    I'm damn mad, and I'm not going to take it anymore!

    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  23. #73
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Bush Treasuery Secretary, Paulson, says, "Approve bailout or risk recession." Thanks but no thanks, I am willing to risk recession.

    The Bush Administration is like the little boy who cried wolf. First it was the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to justify an invasion. Then it was the federal for Katrina victims that was squandered, now it is a mandatory taxpayer bailout for some very rich fat cats.

    I always wanted to believe Bush in the past. I have been burned too many times by this man and his administration. The taxpayer will get burned if the Paulson proposal is approved. I smell a rat in the proposal:

    - no legislative or judicial review or oversight or controls (It will all be in the hands of the Bush Administration)
    - no sanctions against company officers
    - no taxpayer equity in the companies who receive benefits
    - no proposal for how this will be repaid
    - no limitations on corporate salaries and bonuses
    - no regulation to prevent this from happening again

    Just say "NO" to the Paulson proposal.
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

  24. #74
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by matapule View Post
    Just say "NO" to the Paulson proposal.
    This won't be put to a vote.
    “First we fought the preliminary round for the k***s and now we’re gonna fight the main event for the n*****s."
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  25. #75
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    Default Re: Unsettled Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by sinjin View Post
    This won't be put to a vote.
    Of course it won't! Do you think it would pass if it were? Noooooooooooo!
    Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

    People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

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