Government Math

[joshuatree]

Re: Government Math

There's also geothermal which is a huge energy source.

There's serious discussion about transmitting power from one island to the next. If that comes to pass, power generated on the Big Island can be shared by the rest of the state.

Geothermal is consistent and reliable which makes it perfect for baseload power. That would take us off petroleum dependency for electricity.

If we do produce almost all our power from other sources, we'd have to figure out what to do with the petroleum distillation byproduct that is currently being used to produce power. That tar-like substance is what's left after crude is refined into gas, diesel and other products. The remaining substance is sent to HECO to be burned for power. Otherwise it would have to be shipped back to the Mainland.

If we become truly oil independent for power grid needs and if hybrids proliferate to become the defacto standard, would an oil refinery on the island even make sense anymore? Perhaps just the specific oil products can be shipped in instead?

[Composite 2992]

Re: Government Math

If we become truly oil independent for power grid needs and if hybrids proliferate to become the defacto standard, would an oil refinery on the island even make sense anymore? Perhaps just the specific oil products can be shipped in instead?

Good point. I believe some of the gasoline retailers were importing refined gasoline from time to time. Perhaps there's a point at which having a refinery isn't practical. Right now we have two. Lucky for us because there was an incident in which one of them had to shut down for a while.

There's also the growing possibility (pun not intended at first) of producing bio diesel from algae, further reducing the need to have oil shipped here.

[salmoned]

Re: Government Math

Check the math.

At 6 KWh of electricity for 25 miles, it comes to .24 KWh/mile. At a price of $0.2345/KWh, energy cost is $0.05628/mile.

If your car gets 25 MPG and gas costs $2.17/gal, then energy cost is $0.0868/mile. That's a difference of more than 3 cents per mile, or 54% more than an electric car.

And if you park at a metered stall then the electric car is exempt from paying anything. Parking at a metered stall near the office can save a minimum of $4 a day.

You've forgotten to account for the cost of replacing the batteries every 1 1/2 to 3 years ($800 for 16 standard lead acid batteries, average lifespan - 25,000mi per manufacturer's cost calculator), which was accounted for in the cost calculator (it also accounted for regular oil changes in the conventional car @ $30/change). Although lithium ion batteries last longer, they are also much more expensive. Also, the electricity used to charge a battery is significantly more than the amount stored (and available for use) in the battery.

Electric cars are exempt from parking meter fees, but not from meter time limits (15 min., 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours) - park your car all day and it may not be there when you return. Electric cars are not exempt from any parking violations not directly related to meter fees.

My point is that electric cars aren't necessarily more efficient or less dependent on fossil fuels than conventional cars. Maybe the best electric car would be more efficient than the best conventional car, but who's driving those 'best' cars, how much do they cost and where do we get 'em? "Electric car" doesn't automatically translate as 'green car'.

[Composite 2992]

Re: Government Math

You've forgotten to account for the cost of replacing the batteries every 1 1/2 to 3 years ($800 for 16 standard lead acid batteries, average lifespan - 25,000mi per manufacturer's cost calculator), which was accounted for in the cost calculator (it also accounted for regular oil changes in the conventional car @ $30/change). Although lithium ion batteries last longer, they are also much more expensive. Also, the electricity used to charge a battery is significantly more than the amount stored (and available for use) in the battery.

The car calculator seriously underestimates the lifespan of batteries in cars.

The NiMH battery on my Honda Hybrid lasted five years (more than 80,000 miles) and was replaced for free. Nano phosphate technology batteries (A123 Systems for example) have a much higher cycle life and are more efficient than the NiMH batteries being used in today's hybrid vehicles.

Newer lithium batteries are expected to have better cycle lifespans and even shorter charge times. And charging is also a lot more efficient with most of the energy drawn going into the batteries rather than lost as heat.

Electric motors and batteries are so efficient that hobbyists are beginning to choose batteries over gas to power model airplanes, cars and helicopters. In fact, in Myth Busters Jamie used a hobby motor to create a miniature arm-mounted winch that quickly lifted him to the ceiling of an old airplane hangar.

Conventional vehicles also have maintenance costs in additional to the usual oil changes.

Most overhead cam engines require the cam timing belt to be replaced in about five years or 100,000 miles. That can be a very expensive, too. Other common maintenance items specific to internal combustion engines: fuel injection or carburetors, air filters, transmission and related fluids, ignition system, radiator/waterpump.

Realistically, it was estimated it costs more than $0.50 per mile to own and operate a car. An electric car would probably be about the same.

But the main point of an electric car is being able to charge it with an alternative energy source that is hopefully green: Solar; geo thermal; ocean thermal. It would have a much smaller carbon footprint than an car powered by an internal combustion engine.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Government Math

Using EVs or plug in hybrids will make more sense if one of two things happen. Or even better if both.

1) Battery design breakthroughs that lower production costs.
2) Hawaii's power grid shifts its main generating power source to renewables.

I don't see #2 happening to more then propaganda levels unless we either go bio or #1 is solved. But it's going to take one hell of a breakthrough.

Between a mixture of solar, wind, and tidal power generation, there's no reason why Hawaii can't be energy self sufficient.

1) You're forgetting the state's near total dependence on JET-A and the tourists it brings. Do a google on airplanes and "pond scum" and you'll see that bio does offer an alternative for JET-A.
2) Too many times it's a still night, and all three will not produce any energy. Because of that, I see solar/wind/wave as nothing more then sources to conserve (but not replace) the use of petroleum. Biofuels solves the storage issue with existing infrastructure.

There's also geothermal which is a huge energy source.

Valid from an engineering perspective, but it has significant political problems from the Hawaiian cultural perspective.

Maybe the best electric car would be more efficient than the best conventional car, but who's driving those 'best' cars, how much do they cost and where do we get 'em? "Electric car" doesn't automatically translate as 'green car'.

And how much environmental damage do we cause building these new cars to prematurely replace the existing gas powered cars? And how do we get this new technology with enough life left in it to the lower economic levels of the population? Or will they be forced out of personal transportation?

[joshuatree]

Re: Government Math

I don't see #2 happening to more then propaganda levels unless we either go bio or #1 is solved. But it's going to take one hell of a breakthrough.

1) You're forgetting the state's near total dependence on JET-A and the tourists it brings. Do a google on airplanes and "pond scum" and you'll see that bio does offer an alternative for JET-A.
2) Too many times it's a still night, and all three will not produce any energy. Because of that, I see solar/wind/wave as nothing more then sources to conserve (but not replace) the use of petroleum. Biofuels solves the storage issue with existing infrastructure.

Not necessarily true, when was the last oil-fired power plant on Oahu built? There comes a time when the equipment needs replacement. The latest power plant will be biodiesel so the trend is ever so slowly moving in that direction. It would be a lot easier and quicker when other entities aside from HECO do something such as the proposed windfarm on Lanai.

I've only commented on energy in regards to the power grid. I fully am aware of the need for JET-A at the airports which is why in a previous post, I suggested shipping in refined oil products should we ever succeed from transforming our grid.

There are ways to store energy for overnight. Biofuels is another component but there's no way one singular renewable will replace fossil fuels. FF took eons to create. Biofuels is our attempt to do this in "minutes".

Kuzumaki succeeded in weaning off oil.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Government Math

There are ways to store energy for overnight.

Such as?

Biofuels is another component but there's no way one singular renewable will replace fossil fuels.

Why can't Biofuels do that?



The ultimate driver of this is going to be economics. Even though sun, wind and waves are "free", the power delivered from them are anything but free. There's the cost of the land and equipment. Want more power, you have to get that much more land and equipment.

What's more, you still need traditional or biofueled plants to kick in when the weather-based power sources fail to deliver. Normally that equipment will pay for itself when it generates power, but it can't do that if it's sitting idle part of the time. The rate payers will have to bear that cost - another cost associated with weather-based power sources.

Even with high oil costs, solar was just barely becoming practical, and that was generous tax and economic benefits (net metering) and ignoring all the associated costs above.

The only way I see the weather-based stuff making it is if the biofuel is too expensive. That is, even more expensive then oil was a few months ago.

[Composite 2992]

Re: Government Math

1) You're forgetting the state's near total dependence on JET-A and the tourists it brings. Do a google on airplanes and "pond scum" and you'll see that bio does offer an alternative for JET-A.

Valid from an engineering perspective, but it has significant political problems from the Hawaiian cultural perspective.

And how much environmental damage do we cause building these new cars to prematurely replace the existing gas powered cars? And how do we get this new technology with enough life left in it to the lower economic levels of the population? Or will they be forced out of personal transportation?

The amount of jet fuel used here is dwarfed by the amount of gas we burn in cars. Biofuel might be a possible option for aviation fuel, but it has yet to be rigorously tested and approved by the FAA.

Not all knowledgeable and culturally sensitive Hawaiians are against geothermal energy. Things like this can be worked out by cultural experts to make sure nothing is taken without giving back.

Converting to electric cars may not be for everyone. And no one is getting forced out of gas powered cars. It's an option.

There are a lot of people who are willing to be early adopters for environmental reasons. They know it won't save them any of their hard-earned income but they're willing to personally pay the price because they know that individual efforts count. It's like those who volunteered to fight in WW II: they knew they might not come back and they might not share in the fruits of victory. But they all felt it was an important effort to support an important cause.

As more people commit, our society gets greener. Building electric cars isn't any worse than manufacturing internal combustion vehicles. And the batteries are almost 100% recyclable.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Government Math

Biofuel might be a possible option for aviation fuel, but it has yet to be rigorously tested and approved by the FAA.

That's a pretty small hurtle to jump compared to the alternatives.

[Composite 2992]

Re: Government Math

That's a pretty small hurtle to jump compared to the alternatives.

Branson already tried biofuel in one of his jumbo jets. A very limited "test" in just one unmodified engine.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7261214.stm

[joshuatree]

Re: Government Math

Such as?




Why can't Biofuels do that?



The ultimate driver of this is going to be economics. Even though sun, wind and waves are "free", the power delivered from them are anything but free. There's the cost of the land and equipment. Want more power, you have to get that much more land and equipment.

What's more, you still need traditional or biofueled plants to kick in when the weather-based power sources fail to deliver. Normally that equipment will pay for itself when it generates power, but it can't do that if it's sitting idle part of the time. The rate payers will have to bear that cost - another cost associated with weather-based power sources.

Even with high oil costs, solar was just barely becoming practical, and that was generous tax and economic benefits (net metering) and ignoring all the associated costs above.

The only way I see the weather-based stuff making it is if the biofuel is too expensive. That is, even more expensive then oil was a few months ago.

The simplest form I've read about when it comes to storing energy from wind, solar, or tidal for night operations or less than ideal operations is pumping water from a lower reservoir to a higher one and letting that flow back down via turbine at night. Another is to heat up liquid salt during the day and use that heat for power generation at night. As others have also mentioned, geothermal is available. And that would work as a baseline power generation.

I never said biofuels can't replace fossil fuels but surely you realize we won't ever be able to produce biofuels in the quantities that fossil fuels provide today? It takes a lot of land and equipment to produce biofuels. Why do you think corn prices spiked ever since we started promoting ethanol? Besides, why would you want to put all eggs in one basket as we have done with fossil fuels? Economics will make renewables competitive. The drop in oil prices is temporary for the worse of reasons, a faltering economy. What do you think happens when it rebounds? OPEC is always working in keeping the prices up. I don't know if you've watched a recent episode of 60 minutes but the Saudis have admitted that despite being the largest producer of oil, they are heavily investing in solar. Do they know something we don't?

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Government Math

The simplest form I've read about when it comes to storing energy from wind, solar, or tidal for night operations or less than ideal operations is pumping water from a lower reservoir to a higher one and letting that flow back down via turbine at night.

I can see that happening on the mainland. Color me skeptical about ever finding a suitable place and overcoming the hurtles to do that here.

Another is to heat up liquid salt during the day and use that heat for power generation at night.

I'd have to see the numbers, but that sounds more practical for direct solar heating than as a electrical energy storage device.

I never said biofuels can't replace fossil fuels but surely you realize we won't ever be able to produce biofuels in the quantities that fossil fuels provide today? It takes a lot of land and equipment to produce biofuels.

It takes a lot of land and equipment for solar or wind too.

Why do you think corn prices spiked ever since we started promoting ethanol?

Yes, corn is a biofuel, but it's hardly the best one. Take a look a algae. Perhaps this link will help.

Besides, why would you want to put all eggs in one basket as we have done with fossil fuels? Economics will make renewables competitive.

I don't see a problem with one basket. Our problem now is that we've put all our eggs in a few foreign nations.

Economics will dictate that all the alternatives match the lowest price or take a hike. I think one, maybe two will stick around, the rest will go away. I see the weather-based stuff has having too many costs associated with the fact they are not a constant power source.

I see biofuels as having fewer hurtles to deal with. Yeah, land prices is a problem. We may end up buying from overseas. But at least we'll have more partners to choose from. ("Energy Independence" at strangulation prices is just a self imposed punishment.)

The drop in oil prices is temporary for the worse of reasons, a faltering economy. What do you think happens when it rebounds? OPEC is always working in keeping the prices up.

No argument there. The current low price and declining interest in global warming doesn't bode well for our alternative energy projects.

I don't know if you've watched a recent episode of 60 minutes but the Saudis have admitted that despite being the largest producer of oil, they are heavily investing in solar. Do they know something we don't?

Good. While they are busy there, we need to get busy and work out the technology that's really going to make things work. Or else we'll end up paying licensing fees to the Saudis.

[Nords]

Re: Government Math

Personally I think consumer solar is nearly dead. Look at all the available rooftops in the state, but we can't persuade more than a third of Hawaii homeowners to install solar water heaters that have "only" a $5000-$6000 investment, nearly $4500 returned as tax credits or rebates, and a 3-5 year payback. (My system is built from 30-year-old panels, so I'd expect the average homeowner to get 20 years of free hot water before needing any repairs/replacements.) The legislature had to mandate building solar water systems on all new homes. One of Oahu's biggest solar-water communities? Military base housing, where they have no choice.

Consumer photovoltaic isn't doing much better. One major Mainland company arrived here last year and has already pulled out. Again no one is willing to invest $10K-$30K (before 35% tax credits) to flatten their electric bill for a 15-year payback on 25-year materials. Gentry offers PV systems in their new Ewa Beach homes... I wonder how many takers they get. The nation's largest PV neighborhood? Schofield Barracks base housing.

Homeowners move too often to enjoy the paybacks, and buyers don't see any value in home power-generating systems. Landlords don't see the value either, although I'm beginning to wonder about offsetting rental income taxes with solar tax credits.

But commercial & governmental solar-- that's different. National PV installers could use plenty of vacant govt rooftops and empty spaces. Consider all the big-box retailers who've covered their roofs in PV panels. Hoku Solar is putting a megawatt's worth of panels on the airport roofs of four islands. The Mililani sewage plant essentially pumps down to Honouliuli through 11 acres of mostly vacant land that will never be used for residences or businesses-- but it has blazing sun, wide-open land & rooftops, and a huge electrical transmission tower right through the middle of it. A second vacant rooftop is right next to our house, and I could probably sneak an entire PV system on there and have it running for months before anyone discovered the crime. It's killing me to see all this money-making space wasted.

I've learned about a couple interesting energy projects over the last few weeks.

First, UH's Heidi Kuehnle and other horticulturists at the Manoa Innovation Center have been working on algae & biofuels for some time. Kuehnle Agrosystems has several contracts (and financing) to tailor algae for oil production. Although the industry is still in its infancy, concensus seems to be that nobody grows pond scum like UH's researchers.
http://archives.starbulletin.com/200...s/story01.html
http://hawaii.gov/gov/innovation-award (scroll down to November)

Second, Keahole Solar of Sopogy (http://keaholesolarpower.com/) is building a 500 KW solar array on the Big Island. It uses parabolic-reflector arrays to heat mineral oil to ~350 degrees, which runs a small CO2 thermal-expansion plant to generate electricity. (It can also be used to run a small steam plant, like ones used by factories or food processors.) They can also pump the hot oil into two 4500-gallon insulated storage tanks that can feed the plant for about an hour. They keep these tanks hot & topped off for sundown or in case they have a problem with the array-- HELCO gets an hour's warning before Keahole stops producing electricity.

Solar & wind plants contract with the state's utilities to sell their power, which also generates a dividend. But what really motivates an investor is the state/federal tax credits (not deductions but credits) that they can recover in five years for financing these projects. In other words, someone investing in Keahole could have nearly double their capital returned to them by the state/feds in five years. But when Hoku asked local angel/venture-capital investors for $10M to build their 1 MW project, the entire amount was snapped up by a Mainland firm. The Mainland investors wanted the federal credits badly enough to move before locals could take advantage of the bigger combined state/fed credits.

No one's going to invest just because "green is cool". I think it's going to take decades of government subsidies, mandated construction codes, and compelling financial returns before people are going to support alternative energy. But gosh, I think that's what we were saying in the 1970s...

[timkona]

Re: Government Math

Going Solar is totally cost effective from many different angles. Power savings, Tax savings, and least of all the environment.

But let's face it. CONSUMERS DON'T CHOOSE IT. Refi the house, pull out $35,000, then buy a cool pick-up for work and the beach.

Except for a few of us here at HT, most of the others do not CHOOSE alternative energy. Excuses range from "I can't afford it", to "I'm a renter", to "It don't work good enough yet", etc etc.

But they are all just excuses. Putting your money where your mouth is has become an antiquated concept. "Do as I say, not as I do."

The power revolution cannot happen without YOU.

[joshuatree]

Re: Government Math

Except for a few of us here at HT, most of the others do not CHOOSE alternative energy. Excuses range from "I can't afford it", to "I'm a renter", to "It don't work good enough yet", etc etc.

How is "I'm a renter" an excuse? Last I checked, the landlord calls the shots on any major mods to the home.