Ron Paul

[anapuni808]

Re: Ron Paul

well, looks like as of right now - Ron Paul is comin in 3rd place.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Ron Paul

well, looks like as of right now - Ron Paul is comin in 3rd place.

Only 3.1 points behind first. Not bad. At this stage of the game, I think it's more important if in the next round he goes up and/or exceeds predictions. He's in the game and it's more about trend then winning.

[Ron Whitfield]

Re: Ron Paul

RP's #s will collapse outside of Iowa, but I hope not, the more the GOP race is entangled the better it is for Obama as they shoot at each other. But an angry Newt will be gunning for Romney at the tune of 9 mil and the next GOP debates will be nothing but a mugging. At each opportunity Newt will turn it into a blowtorch for Romney's face. It should be fun.

[lensperson]

Re: Ron Paul

Sarah Palin was wise to back out.
She was the only GOP candidate with any real charisma.
And probably saw enough of the power games going on to see
it is a pool full of sharks.
Better to enjoy home grilling in Juneau than justice in Dallas.

[TuNnL]

Re: Ron Paul

well, looks like as of right now - Ron Paul is comin in 3rd place.

Only 3.1 points behind first. Not bad. At this stage of the game, I think it's more important if in the next round he goes up and/or exceeds predictions. He's in the game and it's more about trend then winning.

Good point, GeckoGeek! Apparently, the Boston Globe agrees:

FOUR YEARS LATER
Paul emboldened by strong showing
By Brian C. Mooney
GLOBE STAFF
JANUARY 04, 2012

ANKENY, Iowa — Maverick Ron Paul, who was dismissed four years ago as an annoyance by the Republican Party establishment, left Iowa last night as a force to be reckoned with in the Republican nominating contest.

By drawing a large influx of independent voters to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Paul turned in a strong third-place showing and heads to New Hampshire for next week’s primary as a man with a mission.

A 12-term congressman from Texas with a strong libertarian bent, Paul has built a campaign designed to compete deep into the six-month calendar of primaries and caucuses that will determine who challenges President Obama in November.

[anapuni808]

Re: Ron Paul

a very long time ago when I was learning how to play Backgammon, a friend taught me "there is no such thing as 2nd place - you either win or you lose". I pretty much agree with that philosophy. Losing doesn't come in degrees - its a very finite thing. It doesn't matter by how many points or whether you came in 2nd or 3rd or whatever. You either win or you lose - its a very simple concept.

[matapule]

Re: Ron Paul

I will say, however, that every pre-caucus poll I've seen has had Ron Paul in the top tier. And contrary to your erroneous claims, the BBC's preliminary results of the GOP Iowa caucus do seem to confirm those earlier indicators.

Third place in Iowa is top tier? 79% of Iowa Christianican evangelicanTeapublicans DID NOT vote for Wrong Paul, If there is anywhere he chould have won the whole enchilada, it should have been Iowa. If Iowa is not where he can win, then what State is it? (Watch Tunnel ignore this question)

[GeckoGeek]

Re: Ron Paul

a very long time ago when I was learning how to play Backgammon, a friend taught me "there is no such thing as 2nd place - you either win or you lose".

In general, I'd agree. But Iowa is not the game. I don't think it's even the first quarter. It's a playoff. As long as you're not eliminated, you're a winner.

My impressions being a distant observer is the caucus are all about momentum to the vote that does count. Have the front runners peaked too early? Can someone in the back move up? Will someone blunder?

I think if you look at the past elections there's been a poor correlation between the early caucus winners and who got the nomination.

I predict that the press will follow the first 4 people. The rest will fall of the radar.

I'm not sure what to think about Newt. This isn't his first go-around. I'd think he'd have to be closer to be considered viable, but I'm not sure. He will have to do much better soon or he's eliminated.

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Ron Paul

From the article TuNnL quoted, I believe this is the key to Paul's strong showing in Iowa:

By drawing a large influx of independent voters to the first-in-the-nation caucuses...

The votes of independents are critical in elections now, and if that's where Paul's appeal lies, it will serve him well.

I think GeckoGeek is also accurate in his assessment:

Iowa is not the game. I don't think it's even the first quarter. It's a playoff. As long as you're not eliminated, you're a winner. ~~~ I predict that the press will follow the first 4 people. The rest will fall of the radar.

Iowa caucuses draw so much attention because they are the first "real" vote of the political race (as opposed to straw polls and the like), involving citizens who actually want to participate in the process and will vote. (As I noted earlier, you really have to want to get involved in order to go trudging out in an Iowa winter - remember those, anapuni808? - to participate in the caucuses.)

But the actual results mean little to the final outcome in that anyone can participate, not just those of that political party - that's how independent votes can be a factor; you can "register" to be in that party the night of the caucus, participate, and "un-register" immediately following. Trust me, there will have even been a percentage of Democrats who will did this last night (and Republicans who did so in the 2008 Demo caucuses, and so on).

In addition, you aren't electing a candidate at these events - the caucus is the process by which representatives are selected to go to the county conventions, where delegates are selected for the state convention, which then chooses who sits at the national conventions, where the votes are finally cast for a nominee. But there is NOTHING that requires those delegates (who were originally selected because of their commitment to a specific candidate) to cast votes for said candidate; they are free to change their support without fear of reprisal. And many do over the length of the process, because their candidate drops out and endorses someone else.

GG is right - it's a playoff, and a very early-round one at that.

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Ron Paul

Was Paul's showing "strong" or "disappointing"? The Washington Post can't seem to decide either. From their front-page coverage today:

Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) scored a close but disappointing third-place finish…
– Karen Tumulty’s Washington Post story

Although Santorum and Paul proved the doubters wrong with their strong showings Tuesday…
– Dan Balz’s Washington Post piece

(Courtesy of jimromanesko.com)

[matapule]

Re: Ron Paul

The votes of independents are critical in elections now, and if that's where Paul's appeal lies, it will serve him well.

The probem for Wrong Paul is that Iowa is one of the few States (maybe the only State) where "independents" are allowed to cross over into the Teabumblican and Dumbocrud caucuses. Let's see if WP can match his 21% showing in Iowa in any other State primary, where independents are not allowed to cross over.

I hope he mounts a third party challenge as an independent (because that's the only way he's going to get on the ticket)........please, please, please!

[Kaonohi]

Re: Ron Paul

these are the Teapublicans and Libertarians (synonymous terms)

Pardon me, but the Libertarians are NOT in any way synonymous with the Tea Party Revolutionaries.
Libertarians believe in getting back to the basics of the Constitution; to increase individual liberties vs. Corporate greed and the military-industrial complex.
Tea party fanatics have a completely different agenda.

Perhaps you and other anti-constitutionals believe your propaganda (I.e. The Republicans and Democrats, or the Republican-democratic party), but not all of us are fooled.

[TuNnL]

Re: Ron Paul

RP's #s will collapse outside of Iowa, but I hope not

Not to worry, Ron. A new CBS Poll disproves your laughable prediction with new data showing Ron Paul as one of only two candidates currently neck and neck with President Obama in national polling.

January 9, 2012 6:30 PM
Poll: Among GOP hopefuls, Romney fares best against Obama
By Brian Montopoli

Texas Rep. Ron Paul trails by just one point.

Both Romney’s lead over Mr. Obama - 47 percent to 45 percent - and Mr. Obama's lead over Paul — 46 percent to 45 percent — are within the survey's three percentage point margin of error.

[...]

Romney and Paul’s relatively strong showings are driven by support from independent voters. Romney leads Mr. Obama by six points among independent voters, 45 percent to 59 percent, and Paul leads the president by seven points among independents, 47 percent to 40 percent. Independents favored Mr. Obama over the other GOP candidates.

[Ron Whitfield]

Re: Ron Paul

you act like gollum is going to gain in support numbers, when he's had his max for a year. He's like Mitten "I love firing people" McWillard who can't get above 25%, only RP has less chance at acheiving the nomination even if Mr. Foot In Mouth collapses. You've chosen a last leg lifetime loser, and you deserve him.

BTW, anybody who puts stock in hypothetical polls, especially a year away, as tho they reflect actual voting day prognostications is a baffoon.

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Ron Paul

ABC News comments on the effect of "independents" in NH, particularly in light of the support for Paul; they are taking note that most of the "independents" are really "Republicans," based on past voting records.