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Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

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  • #46
    Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

    Well, Jova moved west of 140°W, so monitoring has been handed off to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center here in Honolulu. Looks like their server is being hammered -- they're directing folks to UH Meteorology for more information. Here's the animated infrared GOES-10 image.

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    • #47
      Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

      Thanks, Ryan. Like yourself, I'm monitoring this very closely as well. I think the most interesting comment in the new update was this:
      "THE BIG FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES IS THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK. JOVA WILL MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...SO WEAKENING WILL LIKELY NOT BE CAUSED BY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH 72 HOURS."
      The lack of shear and lack of decreasing water temps are both critical factors and cause somewhat more concern than yesterday's updates. And so does this:
      "JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK."
      A more westerly track, of course, puts us more in the danger area. I also noted that NOAA's site says errors for the track have averaged near 200 nautical miles on Day 4 and 250 nautical miles on Day 5. So if it's expected to pass the Big Island by 350 miles but there could be a 250 mile error, it obviously could get within a mere 100 miles. Not good at all.
      I expect only heavy rain on Thursday, Friday and Saturday; perhaps severely heavy rain. But we most definitely need to keep an eye on Jova.
      .
      .

      That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

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      • #48
        Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

        Hurricane Jova is weakening and appears to be heading clear of the islands. However, the 5am report from NOAA and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center ends with this:
        "A FINAL NOTE OF CAUTION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD CAUSE
        THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JOVA TO DECOUPLE. IN THAT CASE...THIS
        WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGHT BE CARRIED TO THE LEFT OF THIS FORECAST TRACK."

        And left, of course, means a heading straight toward Hawai`i, probably at a strength just below hurricane level. We still need to be alert for a few more days.
        .
        .

        That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

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        • #49
          Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

          MAMA said she no believe already. As long as she got her Korean Soap Operas and can goods. I told her not going get electricity. No worry, not going get one hurricane, not name in Hawaiian. You worry when they name one in Hawaiian! Then we hold Okole!

          Auntie Lynn
          Be AKAMAI ~ KOKUA Hawai`i!
          Philippians 4:13 --- I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me.

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          • #50
            Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

            If nothing else, the high surf will prove to be a godsend for the surfers. I hope Manoa Stream doesn't overflow its banks again, too, with all the heavy rain that's expected to hit the islands.

            Miulang
            "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

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            • #51
              Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

              Originally posted by Miulang
              If nothing else, the high surf will prove to be a godsend for the surfers.
              Well, we have zero wind right now and only some gentle sloping swells from the remains of Jova. Nothing surfable, especially for the women in the Na Wahine O Ke Kai race from Moloka`i to Waikiki on Sunday. No wind to cool them off, high humidity, and no waves to help them along... it's gonna be ugly.

              I hope Manoa Stream doesn't overflow its banks again, too, with all the heavy rain that's expected to hit the islands.
              Expected? It's here right now. See the radar link in the "Wet and Wetter" thread.
              .
              .

              That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

                Don't want to sound like an alarmist but has anyone checked out the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's website latey about Kenneth?

                While the forecast is expected to be a Tropical Depression by Saturday, it looks like it might go over the Big Island.

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                • #53
                  Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

                  Originally posted by helen
                  Don't want to sound like an alarmist but has anyone checked out the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's website latey about Kenneth?

                  While the forecast is expected to be a Tropical Depression by Saturday, it looks like it might go over the Big Island.
                  Oooh. That's pretty much dead center, isn't it? I wonder why they think it's going to make a sharp westward turn. Probably something about wind directions and whatnot. Even if it's just a tropical depression, that still means lots of rain.

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                  • #54
                    Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

                    Originally posted by Glen Miyashiro
                    I wonder why they think it's going to make a sharp westward turn. Probably something about wind directions and whatnot. Even if it's just a tropical depression, that still means lots of rain.
                    And as you probably know, it's the shearing factor that's causing Kenneth to make that sharp left turn straight toward the Big Island. Winds should only be about 30, but there's a 20mph error probability in there too, so maybe some frisky breezes with all that rain. Especially if Kenneth continues south of the rest of the islands, that should suck down stronger tradewinds.
                    Friday thru Sunday should be interesting.
                    .
                    .

                    That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Tropical Storm Kenneth

                      Originally posted by LikaNui
                      And as you probably know, it's the shearing factor that's causing Kenneth to make that sharp left turn straight toward the Big Island.
                      As of 5am today, Kenneth hooked right a wee bit and now is on a line above the Big Island and headed straight for Maui.
                      .
                      .

                      That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Tropical Storm Kenneth

                        Originally posted by LikaNui
                        As of 5am today, Kenneth hooked right a wee bit and now is on a line above the Big Island and headed straight for Maui.
                        Dang it! Now I gotta worry about my parents getting waterlogged! Usually the big storms miss Maui, but maybe their luck has run out. Actually, I think the only damage my parents might suffer is from a power outage because they live in Central Maui and they're not in the flood plain in Paukukalo or Waihee. Mercifully there aren't any tall coconut trees anywhere in the neighborhood, either.

                        Miulang
                        "Americans believe in three freedoms. Freedom of speech; freedom of religion; and the freedom to deny the other two to folks they don`t like.” --Mark Twain

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Tropical Storm Kenneth

                          Originally posted by Miulang
                          Usually the big storms miss Maui, but maybe their luck has run out.
                          And maybe not. The 11am update from NOAA shows that Kenneth has turned hard right again and is now projected to go well north of all the islands.
                          .
                          .

                          That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Tropical Depression Kenneth

                            Originally posted by LikaNui
                            And maybe not. The 11am update from NOAA shows that Kenneth has turned hard right again and is now projected to go well north of all the islands.
                            Well, that was at 11am yesterday, but at 5am today Kenneth had once again veered south and the current predictions call for it to go straight over Maui and Oahu. Obviously, this could change. Again.
                            It's been changed from a Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression; winds at 25 to 35mph. The forecast for extremely heavy rain (beginning tomorrow afternoon and running through the weekend) is still in effect.
                            .
                            .

                            That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

                              All I know is..it's raining in my neck of the woods....plenty
                              Every morning I get up and look through the Forbes list of Richest People in America. If I'm not on it, I go to work.

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                              • #60
                                Re: Hurricanes Jova and Kenneth

                                You know on the news/weather in Arizona dey no say nothing about hurricane in the pacific. No stay even mentioned.

                                ~Lika
                                ~Lika

                                \\000// Malama Pono \\000//

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