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HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

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  • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

    I'm with Scriv on this one...like I mentioned in a previous post to this thread, I do not look at the picks of others. It's strictly a random event should I replicate another players pick for pick; it is not something done intentionally.

    With only 14 to 16 games to pick per week, there is bound to be pick replication among players. So many of the games of a given week are games in which there are overwhelming favorites. For example, let's say that the current Houston Texans are visiting the current New England Patriots on a Sunday Night game...the Texans would be huge underdogs in this game. I am not going to pick Houston to win the game just to be different and assuage the feelings of somebody who thinks I'm intentionally replicating their picks. I'm picking the Pats to win it, even if every other player who has made his/her picks known prior to mine, has also picked the Pats to win. Yeah, it's just a game, but if one is going to play a game, one may as well play it to win it.

    The one "problem" I see with this game as it stands now is that players are picking straight-up wins and losses. There is no "line" incorporated into the game. There is no incentive to pick an underdog. As such, most players are going to pick (logically so) the obvious favorites and not stick their necks out and pick a underdog in hope of an upset.

    I think if players were to be awarded a win point only if they satisfied "covering the spread", id est, "The Line", whatever official line were to be used, be it one published in the Advertiser or Star-Bulletin, we'd see a whole lot more diversity in our overall picks.

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    • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

      Originally posted by manoasurfer123 View Post
      so it seems obvious that those that follow HT's NFL pickems.... Nacho is waiting for me to post so that he can look at my pics.. what ever happened to the gentlemen thing of posting by the week bi-weekly?
      Why has it been that Every week I have posted before him.... and still won... post your picks nacho.... wassup... show some gaem!
      Manoa. Manoa, Manoa............

      Sorry to burst your delusional bubble but there is a valid reason that I am posting after you.

      I am asking you to recall the T & Cs of our little venture. Here is one you obviously have forgotten about. Who ever is leading the cumulative was obligated to post first. Why did we put that rule in? So the winner , who was ahead, could not parrot the loser's bet, making the week a "zero sum" game (not allowing the loser to catch up on the cumulative).

      It was simply coincidence that my last week's bet was the same as yours. I should have thought about it more cuz it is not in my best interest to parrot your picks as there is no way for me to catch up. Long week, long hours, I don't have a 9-5 job like you. BUT, by virtue of the T & C above, you broke the rule by changing your picks after I posted mine. I did not call you on it but you broke the rule, straight up and if you change your picks after I post mine for this week I will rule this week null and void with respect to our side bets.

      I suspect (and hope) that your present employment does not involve policy and procedure cuz if it does, I weep for the future of the keiki of Hawaii. You are simply not very good at it. I love you like the mentally challenged little brother I never had but sometimes your lack of listening and comprehension skills can be tiring.

      Ryan will leave this up for a while cuz you really should have PM'd me concerning this matter. I would have been glad to explain it to ya but since you chose this format to convey your displeasure, I am obligated as well to calibrate you. Publically.

      Next time you call me out publically, please have your ducks in a row. It turns out to be better game in the long run. back atcha.

      Now, the drama is over, move along, nothing else to see here, move along......
      Last edited by nachodaddy; October 6, 2006, 06:27 AM. Reason: clarification
      You Look Like I Need A Drink

      Comment


      • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

        You know what? I don't even have to see Manoa's posts to know that he just can't participate in anything without sucking all the joy and fun out of it.

        Scriv, you're right, it's a lot of work to run this -- find picks among all the nitpicking, track picks and changes weekly, post interim (instead of updates) to satisfy the obsessive, maintaining your data and your great special site for this game. It's amazing. It's somewhat intimidating. And I really appreciate it.

        But I don't think I want to make any more work for you, so there won't be any more picks from me. It's not a reflection on you, certainly, and I'm certainly going to check in on how the game is going and root for almost everyone. I'm constantly awed and humbled by your community-minded and creative nature in coming up with fun ideas, but the ridiculousness of another player has ruined this for me.

        Comment


        • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

          back to regularly scheduled programming...........all picks were made independently of other HT member's picks

          Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
          Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
          Washington Redskins at NY Giants
          Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
          Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
          Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
          St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
          Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
          NY Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
          Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
          Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
          Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
          Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers

          Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos 21-12
          You Look Like I Need A Drink

          Comment


          • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

            Originally posted by manoasurfer123 View Post
            I guess HT doesn't give a foul about the baseball going on?
            Well...not in an NFL thread, at least.

            Comment


            • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

              Hey, I thought this contest was all in fun, with the weekly and overall "winners" determined in that spirit. As previously pointed out, this is just a "pick the winner" straight-up without regard to any "point-spreads."

              Some people have apparently gotten too serious about this.

              Comment


              • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                Originally posted by oceanpacific View Post
                Hey, I thought this contest was all in fun, with the weekly and overall "winners" determined in that spirit. As previously pointed out, this is just a "pick the winner" straight-up without regard to any "point-spreads."

                Some people have apparently gotten too serious about this.
                It's all about fun to me too...

                I wish people wouldn't get too serious also... but that's just the nature of things...I wish people would lighten up at times all across HT... Oh wells...

                If PZ chooses not to compete... I guess that gives us all one more chance of winning... However, I wish he would.

                This is just a game... something that should be played in good spirits.
                I'm just ribbing Nacho... sorry to get everyone else involved in what should have been a PM to Nacho... since we have our own side "game" going on with this.

                Comment


                • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                  Originally posted by pzarquon View Post
                  Scriv, you're right, it's a lot of work to run this -- find picks among all the nitpicking, track picks and changes weekly, post interim (instead of updates) to satisfy the obsessive, maintaining your data and your great special site for this game. It's amazing. It's somewhat intimidating. And I really appreciate it.
                  In all honesty, it's not that bad. It's a pretty straightforwardly administered game, and only requires my management on weekends, so that's pretty nice. Additionally, it gives me something to think about when I'm trying not to think about work, graduate school, my devastated love-life, my financial worries, and my physical health.

                  As always, I considered this a chance to multitask: have fun talking some football, get as familiar as possible with iWeb, and revisit my mad Excel skillz. I'm not doing much, in all honesty. Do you know that on game day, all I do is put in the names of the winning teams and almost everything else updates itself? That's cool! I love watching all the columns' values change with just the press of one return key, not to mention the actual formatting of the cells! You gotta love conditional formatting! I just wish I could figure out conditional sorting, if it exists.

                  But I don't think I want to make any more work for you, so there won't be any more picks from me. It's not a reflection on you, certainly, and I'm certainly going to check in on how the game is going and root for almost everyone. I'm constantly awed and humbled by your community-minded and creative nature in coming up with fun ideas, but the ridiculousness of another player has ruined this for me.
                  Okay, two things here: Your not participating is not going to make much less work for me, and in fact it makes this less fun for me. You keep using that word community, and community is exercised only by participation. I would have been happy running this game just for me and manoa (as I say in the initial post), but I'm even happier running it for all the people who've chimed in with predictions and who continue to goad each other and encourage each other. I don't much enjoy talking politics with some of the people who've participated in this game, but I sure as heck enjoy talking some football with them.

                  Sure, manoa can get irritating in this thread, especially if you're not really into football that much, but you've got him on ignore, you're in contention to win this thing, and I like having you in it. So reconsider, willya?

                  Oh. I said "two things here," didn't I? Well, now I'm kinda hesitant to say this, but what the heck. It's really manoa's game. He asked me to set it up and to administer it, and after thinking about it some, I decided it would be fun. I've looked at it as something of a partnership from the beginning, so maybe my tolerance is a bit higher than it otherwise might be. It's only football (not whether or not people should vote), and I guess I feel a certain commitment to the partnership. So I'm in no matter what. Keep me company.
                  But I'm disturbed! I'm depressed! I'm inadequate! I GOT IT ALL! (George Costanza)
                  GrouchyTeacher.com

                  Comment


                  • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                    Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
                    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
                    Washington Redskins at NY Giants
                    Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
                    Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
                    Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
                    St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
                    Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
                    NY Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
                    Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
                    Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
                    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
                    Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers

                    Monday Night tie-breaker: Pick winner and predict score!
                    Baltimore Ravens 17 at Denver Broncos 7
                    But I'm disturbed! I'm depressed! I'm inadequate! I GOT IT ALL! (George Costanza)
                    GrouchyTeacher.com

                    Comment


                    • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                      As threatened, I decided to add a "home-field advantage" factor to the random-pick generator. For those of you interested, I use the random number function to generate a number between 1 and 100 (inclusive) for each game. If teams have an equal chance to win, I tell Excel to take the visiting team if the number is between 1 and 50 inclusive, or the home team if the number is between 51 and 100 inclusive.

                      However, that wasn't enough for me. I wanted to give extra weight to the home team for whatever the season's home-field advantage is. Unfortunately, believe it or not, the home team has won only 47% of games this season so far! Still, the numbers don't lie, so rather than 1-50 resulting in a visiting-team pick, I set it at 1-53. Thus, the home-team is selected if the random number is between 54 and 100 inclusive, giving the visiting team a 53-47 advantage over the home team.

                      so in one column, I have:
                      =INT(RAND()*100)+1 to generate the random number, and

                      in the adjacent column, I have:
                      =IF(AD26<=53,B3,D3) where AD26 is the cell with the random number, B3 is the cell with the visiting team's name, and D3 is the cell with the home team's name. Of course, the column is filled down to determine predictions for each of the week's games.

                      With that in mind, here are the computer's picks this week:

                      Miami
                      TampaBay
                      Washington
                      Minnesota
                      Cleveland
                      Chicago
                      StLouis
                      Tennessee
                      NYJets
                      Oakland
                      KansasCity
                      Dallas
                      Pittsburgh
                      Denver

                      I hate small sample sizes. That's 11 visiting teams out of 14 games! I may have to simulate a 1000-game week just to see what the randomizer looks like.
                      Last edited by scrivener; October 6, 2006, 08:15 PM.
                      But I'm disturbed! I'm depressed! I'm inadequate! I GOT IT ALL! (George Costanza)
                      GrouchyTeacher.com

                      Comment


                      • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                        Originally posted by Surfingfarmboy View Post
                        I think if players were to be awarded a win point only if they satisfied "covering the spread", id est, "The Line", whatever official line were to be used, be it one published in the Advertiser or Star-Bulletin, we'd see a whole lot more diversity in our overall picks.
                        This is true, but this game does have its advantages. First, it's just simpler and therefore encourages participation by more people. Second, sure, everyone's going to pick New England to beat most teams, but there's something to being able to pick the winner of teams more evenly matched. What I like about this arrangement is that ANYone can win any given week, but over the course of the season, the more knowledgable participants are more likely to win.

                        Besides: Line-betting is set up mostly to get equal numbers of bets on each side. That's boring. It basically means, I believe, that over the course of a season, averages will be pretty close to 50%. That's boring!
                        But I'm disturbed! I'm depressed! I'm inadequate! I GOT IT ALL! (George Costanza)
                        GrouchyTeacher.com

                        Comment


                        • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                          My picks for Week #5:

                          New England Patriots
                          New Orleans Saints
                          NY Giants
                          Minnesota Vikings
                          Cleveland Browns
                          Chicago Bears
                          Green Bay Packers
                          Indianapolis Colts
                          Jacksonville Jaguars
                          San Francisco 49ers
                          Kansas City Chiefs
                          Philadelphia Eagles
                          Pittsburgh Steelers

                          Monday Night Tie-breaker:
                          Denver Broncos 24-18

                          Comment


                          • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                            Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
                            Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
                            Washington Redskins at NY Giants
                            Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
                            Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
                            Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
                            St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
                            Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
                            NY Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
                            Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
                            Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
                            Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
                            Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers

                            Monday Night tie-breaker: Pick winner and predict score!
                            Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
                            Ravens 24-17
                            (This is my week )

                            Comment


                            • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                              NFL Week 5 Local TV Schedule

                              Here is what I got

                              St. Louis at Green Bay
                              Buffalo at Chicago

                              Dallas at Philadelphia

                              plus the non regional stuff.

                              Anybody have anything different???
                              You Look Like I Need A Drink

                              Comment


                              • Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

                                Here in the Boston-Providence metro area, we get the following NFL games:

                                Miami at New England, 7AM HST on CBS

                                Dallas at Philadelphia 10:15AM HST on Fox
                                Boston, due to the fact the Pats game is/was a home game, will not get another game on CBS at 10:15 AM HST. Providence, on the other hand, will get another CBS game...unfortunately, I can't find what game that will be.

                                And of course, the Sunday night Pittsburgh at San Diego game, live. Are the Sunday Night games on NBC televised live in Hawaii or are they tape-delayed like the old MNF games on ABC were?

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