HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

[nachodaddy]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

KansasCity Chiefs at St.Louis Rams
Houston Texans at NYGiants
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
NewOrleans Saints at TampaBay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
GreenBay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at SanFrancisco 49ers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns at SanDiego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at NewEngland Patriots

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks 27-21

[Surfingfarmboy]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

My picks for Week #9

Kansas City Chiefs at St.Louis Rams
Houston Texans at NY Giants
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Monday Night Tie-Breaker tie breaker pick
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks 27-20

[damontucker]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

TK.. your Picks?

I know scriv will have his in on time...

[Mike_Lowery]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Changing some picks, and putting'em in order for scriv:

Kansas City Chiefs at St.Louis Rams
Houston Texans at NY Giants
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Tie Breaker: Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks 13-12

[timkona]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

KansasCity Chiefs at St.Louis RAMS
Houston Texans at NYGiants
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
NewOrleans Saints at TampaBay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
GreenBay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at SanFrancisco 49ers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns at SanDiego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at NewEngland Patriots

Monday Night Tie-Breaker! Pick winner and predict score!
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
24-6

[damontucker]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

ML what inspired you to change the pitt denver pick?

Just kidding

[scrivener]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

KansasCity Chiefs at St.Louis Rams
Houston Texans at NYGiants
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
NewOrleans Saints at TampaBay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
GreenBay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at SanFrancisco 49ers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns at SanDiego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts at NewEngland Patriots

Monday Night Tie-Breaker! Pick winner and predict score!
Oakland Raiders 23 at Seattle Seahawks 13

Man, some of these picks were tough. I'm almost surely wrong about the Bengals beating the Ravens, but I just have a feeling. I also wouldn't be shocked if the 49ers beat the Vikings. Picking the Steelers over the Broncos and the Patriots over the Colts is just my way of saying that I am an idiot. I'm going with my gut on these, and while that's not usually a good idea, it's been good enough lately.

[damontucker]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Looks like the Denver Pitt game is crucial and
the Hawks Raider game is crucial this week for me!

[scrivener]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Here are this week's picks from the Random-Pick Generator:
St.Louis
NYGiants
Jacksonville
NewOrleans
Washington
Chicago
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
NewEngland
Seattle over Oakland, 24-9.

The Random-Pick Generator is no longer my son.

Other thoughts:
Manoa and I differ on 3 picks (Cincy/Baltimore, Pitt/Denver, and Oakland/Seattle), meaning that one of us will be ahead of the other at the end of this week's games.

oceanpacific (two back in the cumulative game) differs with me on 4 and with manoa on 3. There are a lot of possible scenarios here, but I believe one of them involves oceanpacific taking first.

In a 17-week season with staggered byes, there is no real midpoint anymore, so let's call this week the halfway point and in that other NFL thread, start a discussion about first-half awards. I'll start the post and we'll have at it.

[Surfingfarmboy]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Scriv! Maybe you can help me on this one question...it was something I was pondering during a boring 20 mile training run yesterday, in preparation for the marathon.

How many unique combinations of winners are there to be picked among all the NFL games played during, say, a weekend with 16 games scheduled? What's the formula for this? I'm guessing that the number must be huge, but like I said, I'm having a tough time trying to come up with the formula for this.

What I do know is that there are 16 possible outcomes that can be determined from a pool of 32 teams, but I don't think the formula for this is the basic combination formula, which is of course is n!/(n-j)!j! We have to calcluate all the possible outcomes where the first possible outcome of the set of 16 to be determined will ultimately affect the entire set of the number of all possible combinations.

For instance, this week Oakland is playing Seattle. Eliminating the possibility of a tie, either Oakland or Seattle will win. If this was the only game played during the weekend, there would be two possible outcomes...Oakland or Seattle. Now let's say we have to pick Indy and New England. I can calculate four possible outcomes of winners: Oak/Indy, Oak/NE, Seattle/Indy, and Seattle/NE.

With this in mind, is the formula for this question possibly as simple as 2 raised to the x power where x is the number of games played during the weekend? In a standard 16 game weekend, is the answer to my question possibly as simple as 2 raised to the 16th power?

Also, if we were to determine all possible outcomes, with ties thrown into the formula (in theory, all 16 games played can end in ties), would that formula be 3 raised to the x power, where x = the number of games played during a weekend?

[scrivener]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

I'm getting chicken-skin. I love when my friends ask questions like this. If only my students would ask these things, I'd be a happy human.

What you're proposing is the classic lunch-order problem. If for a meal you can choose from water, Coke, and Gatorade for a drink, and between veggie and tofu for a sandwich, you have three choices of one thing and two of another.

Your possible lunches, assuming you pick one from each category, are:
water, veggie
water, tofu
Coke, veggie
Coke, tofu
Gatorade, veggie
Gatorade, tofu

What it works out to is the number of choices of drinks multiplied by the number of choices of sandwiches. In this case, 3 x 2 = 6 possible lunches.

Simply, for each choice of drinks, you have one of the choices of sandwiches. Watch what happens if you add a fourth drink, beer:

water, veggie
water, tofu
Coke, veggie
Coke, tofu
Gatorade, veggie
Gatorade, tofu
beer, veggie
beer, tofu

In this case, 4 x 2 =8 possible lunches.

What happens if we add one possible soup, miso?

water, veggie, miso
water, tofu, miso
Coke, veggie, miso
Coke, tofu, miso
Gatorade, veggie, miso
Gatorade, tofu, miso
beer, veggie, miso
beer, tofu, miso

The number of possible lunches has not changed, because when we multiply the number of choices for drinks by the number of choices of sandwiches AND the number of choices of soup (one in this example), we get 4 x 2 x 1, or 8 choices. Adding a second choice of soup, pea, we get:

water, veggie, miso
water, veggie, pea
water, tofu, miso
water, tofu, pea
Coke, veggie, miso
Coke, veggie, pea
Coke, tofu, miso
Coke, tofu, pea
Gatorade, veggie, miso
Gatorade, veggie, pea
Gatorade, tofu, miso
Gatorade, tofu, pea
beer, veggie, miso
beer, veggie, pea
beer, tofu, miso
beer, tofu, pea

Now we have four choices, two choices, and two choices, or 4 x 2 x 2, or 16 possible lunches.

So with the football teams, in a full week of 16 games, not counting the possiblity of ties, you have 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2, or 65,536 outcomes. In this case, 2 to the 16th power works, but that's basically because you have the same number of choices in each game. Don't remember the problem that way, or you'll have problems with examples like the one I gave. Remember instead that you multiply the number of outcomes in each of the instances (or choices).

And yes, if you count ties, it's 3^16, which is a huge number.

[damontucker]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Nice morning Picks Palama... I don't know how you do it
Palama was 6 and 3 followed by three others at 5 and 4 for the Morning Games!

[Surfingfarmboy]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Wow...thank you, Scriv, for the explanation! I have to admit, I'm going to have to study your complete analysis to completely understand when other "unrelated" variables, that is a variable or choice that be can be realized independent of the outcome (or choice) of other variables, affects the overall number of combinations that can be calculated.

It appears as if this is very similar to calculating the number of standard license plates that could be had in Hawaii, assuming the full range of plates issued is comprised of a pool of alpha/numeric characters beginning at AAA000 and ending with ZZZ999. I'm thinking in this instance, the answer would be 26 raised to the third power then muliplied by 10 raised to the third power. ( In this calculation, I am not including in the pool non-standard plates like AA000 or number only plates.)

I know this is the NFL Pick'em Thread, but I think this explanation you've put forth is relevant to the thread to demonstrate to all interested, (and especially to those who might have thought in the past that there was/might be excessive pick replication among the players), that there are thousands of unique possible outcomes that exist for any given weekend in the NFL. Most of the possible outcomes are highly unlikely to occur, and all of us are trying to use our handicapping skills to increase our odds of winning by eliminating the more unlikely outcomes. It's interesting that out of the thousands of combinations that can be validly chosen for a given week, most of our picks are fairly close to each other, with usually no more than 2 or 3 picks the difference between each other.

[Surfingfarmboy]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!

Also, in regards to your explaination of how to calculate total possible outcomes: Don't think for one moment that I have not taken into consideration your thoughtful choices of food available for me to choose from. Tofu? Veggies? Miso? I'm certain the choices available are so by careful design!

[scrivener]

Re: HawaiiThreads NFL Pick'em!



Of course the choices are different when I've got a roomful of eleventh-grade boys.