Obama Watch

[oceanpacific]

Re: Obama Watch

This may be Obama's best shot at winning the nomination. If he fails, he will likely become the next HAROLD STASSEN. Stassen, who was governor of Minnesota, was the "boy wonder" of the 1948 Republican presidential race. He lost the nomination to NY Governor Thomas Dewey, who was then upset by incumbent Harry Truman in the general election.

Stassen then became a perennial Republican candidate over the next 20 years, with his base getting smaller each time.

[tutusue]

Re: Obama Watch

[...]Stassen then became a perennial Republican candidate over the next 20 years, with his base getting smaller each time.

Sounds a bit like bi-party candidate, Pat Paulsen!

When originally "denying" he was running, borrowing from General William Sherman in 1884: "I will not run if nominated, and if elected I will not serve."

[oceanpacific]

Re: Obama Watch

It's hard to imagine, but Pat Paulsen's gag run for the White House via TV's "LAUGH-IN" was four decades ago in 1968!

My, how time flies!

[tutusue]

Re: Obama Watch

It's hard to imagine, but Pat Paulsen's gag run for the White House via TV's "LAUGH-IN" was four decades ago in 1968!

My, how time flies!

This whole issue of "time" is being redefined...day by day!

For some reason I remember Paulsen standing at a podium on the Smothers Bros. show. Is my memory...ummm...I forgot what I was gonna say...

[oceanpacific]

Re: Obama Watch

This whole issue of "time" is being redefined...day by day!

For some reason I remember Paulsen standing at a podium on the Smothers Bros. show. Is my memory...ummm...I forgot what I was gonna say...

It's my memory that's fading ............. it was the Smothers Brothers. That gag got other "real" candidates demanding "equal time."

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Obama Watch

This may be Obama's best shot at winning the nomination. If he fails, he will likely become the next HAROLD STASSEN. Stassen, who was governor of Minnesota, was the "boy wonder" of the 1948 Republican presidential race. He lost the nomination to NY Governor Thomas Dewey, who was then upset by incumbent Harry Truman in the general election.

Stassen then became a perennial Republican candidate over the next 20 years, with his base getting smaller each time.

Or,...

Obama could become the next RONALD REAGAN. Recall that the 1976 GOP national convention was the last time that a major party started a convention with the presidential nomination still up for grabs. The incumbent, Gerald Ford, managed to prevail, but barely. Still, it turned out to be a major stepping stone to Reagan eventually winning it all in 1980. This year's DNC could also see another floor fight if neither Clinton or Obama can secure the nomination through the primary process.

Furthermore, I don't see much of any similarity between Obama and Stassen. Stassen's problem was that he was seen as being too "liberal" by many Republican voters in the Bible belt. This perception increased when he joined M.L. King in the march to Washington DC in 1963. From that point on, Stassen was cast as an outsider by the national GOP, as they embraced the kind of conservatism symbolized by Barry Goldwater. In contrast, I don't anticipate Obama's politics shifting out of mainstream Democratic policies/platform anytime soon, if ever.

[oceanpacific]

Re: Obama Watch

Reagan had a ton of real experience being California's governor.

I fear that Obama's constituents may melt away from the political process should he not sustain his momentum all the way to the nomination. Many have never participated before and a possible loss to the entrenched party regulars will return many of them to the role of sideline watchers.

[timkona]

Re: Obama Watch

Will Obama's lack of experience help McCain get elected, should that race become reality?

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Obama Watch

If the lack of experience or distinction in politics were the major factor, perhaps we would not have had Lincoln, Truman or Kennedy as Presidents.

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...date=1/11/2008

[craigwatanabe]

Re: Obama Watch

It's all about charisma. Kennedy had it, Reagan had it, Clinton had it, and I think Obama has it. Hillary doesn't.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Obama Watch

Reagan had a ton of real experience being California's governor.

Being that we are talking about Obama's future viability as a presidential candidate should he fail to receive the nomination in 2008, I still don't buy into your thinking.

Reagan served as Governor of California for 8 years. Assuming that Obama does not resign from his U.S. Senate seat or is upset in a 2010 re-election bid, he will have 8 years in that office by 2012. And unlike Reagan, it will be at the federal level, rather than at the state. Heck, if you count Obama's time as a state senator in Illinois, that would give him a total of 16 years of political experience by 2012.

Sorry, but this experience issue is vastly overrated.

I fear that Obama's constituents may melt away from the political process should he not sustain his momentum all the way to the nomination. Many have never participated before and a possible loss to the entrenched party regulars will return many of them to the role of sideline watchers.

You can think whatever you want. But unlike Harold Stassen who was out of elective office once he resigned as Governor of Minnestoa, Obama will very likely still be a sitting U.S. Senator when the 2012 campaign rolls around, should his presidential bid fall short this year. One way or another, he'll still be in the news a lot and won't be one of those people you read about in a "What are they doing now?" type of story.

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Obama Watch

Obama will very likely still be a sitting U.S. Senator when the 2012 campaign rolls around, should his presidential bid fall short this year.

Though if Sen. Clinton were to win the office in 2008, it's unlikely he would challenge her in 2012 - more likely in 2016, and even then, it could depend on whether her v.p. runs for the nomination.

2008 is just as prime an opportunity for Sen. Obama as it is for Sen. Clinton.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Obama Watch

Though if Sen. Clinton were to win the office in 2008, it's unlikely he would challenge her in 2012 - more likely in 2016,

Even if Obama has to wait to 2016, he'll still be only 55. That is younger than either Clinton (60) or McCain (71) is right now.

I really can't understand why some people are completely writing off Obama's presidential hopes if he can't do it in 2008. Have some folks here already forgotten that McCain himself ran for president eight years ago? That failed bid in 2000 is obviously not going to stop him from getting the nomination this year, will it?

and even then, it could depend on whether her v.p. runs for the nomination.

Yeah, well, I'll let you in on a not-so-secret fact, Leo. This country has had nine men serve as vice president since 1964. And only ONE of them went on to become an elected President. (The elder Bush holding that distinction.) That should tell ya that in recent history, being a veep is far, FAR from being a sure-fire ticket to the top.

1 out of 9 in the last 44 years? If anything, one would swear that being a veep is detrimental to anyone who hopes to eventually be elected the president. (Just gotta keep your fingers crossed and hope that your boss croaks or resigns from office.)

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Obama Watch

Yeah, well, I'll let you in on a not-so-secret fact, Leo. This country has had nine men serve as vice president since 1964. And only ONE of them went on to become an elected President. (The elder Bush holding that distinction.) That should tell ya that in recent history, being a veep is far, FAR from being a sure-fire ticket to the top.

Yes - but I'd be more interested in seeing how many sitting veeps were challenged (and defeated for the nomination) by members of their own party? That's what I'm talking about.

[Frankie's Market]

Re: Obama Watch

Yes - but I'd be more interested in seeing how many sitting veeps were challenged (and defeated for the nomination) by members of their own party? That's what I'm talking about.

Interesting question. Well, let's review all the incumbent VPs who tried to get their party's presidential nomination, going back to 1860.

1860 - John Breckinridge (lost the Democratic nomination to Stephen A. Douglass)

1896 - Adlai Stevenson I (lost the Democratic nomination to William Jennings Bryan)

1908 - Charles Fairbanks (lost the Republican nomination to William Howard Taft)

1928 - Charles Dawes (lost the Republican nomination to Herbert Hoover)

1940 - John Nance Garner (lost the Democratic nomination to Franklin Delano Roosevelt)

1952 - Alben Barkley (lost the Democratic nomination to Adlai Stevenson II)

1960 - Richard Nixon (won the Republican nomination)

1968 - Hubert Humphrey (won the Democratic nomination)

1988 - George H.W. Bush (won the Republican nomination)

2000 - Al Gore (won the Democratic nomination)

So for about a 100 year period, not a single sitting VP was able to gain the nod for a presidential nomination. That surprised even me!

Tricky Dick finally bucked that trend in 1960, ushering in a new era where VPs had an easier time of it when it came to getting the nomination. But even here, I would have to add a big asterisk next to Humphrey's 1968 nomination, as an assassin's bullet abruptly cut down what would have been a very strong challenge from Robert Kennedy.

Note that even with the recent trend of sitting VPs getting the presidential nomination, only the elder Bush went on to win the general election. (He being only the 4th incumbent VP to win the presidency, with the others being John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and Martin Van Buren.)

Also note that in the list I printed down, I didn't include numerous other incumbent VPs who reportedly chose not to run for president. These would include Thomas Marshall (veep for Woodrow Wilson), William Wheeler (Rutherford B. Hayes) and Dick Cheney (Dubya.) Although these guys voluntarily made the decision not to run, they would have had weak support and likely would have failed to get the nomination had they tried.