Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

I think it IS possible to make changes, but the voters of Hawai'i have to stop with the laissez-faire attitude and start electing people who will represent them fairly. More importantly, the voters need to hold their elected representatives ACCOUNTABLE for their actions and not keep returning them to office year after year even though some of them clearly are not keeping the best interests of their constituency (as opposed to big business) in mind. Or as I like to say, "If you're not part of the solution, then you're part of the problem."

I've lived here 30 years already, and I believe what I mentioned previously
is a huge detriment to any overall change.It is already ingrained into how
things operate here.

Yes I believe we need to elect better people to government here. But
that is only part of the solution. There needs to be a overall, global
change in our state in how things operate here. But so far I've seen
most people just feel inclined to bitch how bad things are and not find
viable solutions to the problems facing us. On top of that, most people
don't seem to feel inclined to vote or get involved in the government process.
Plus the politics of "no" is killing this state in my opinion.

geez each passing day, I'm sounding more and more like a politician

just my .25 for today

[Miulang]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

I've lived here 30 years already, and I believe what I mentioned previously
is a huge detriment to any overall change.It is already ingrained into how
things operate here.

Yes I believe we need to elect better people to government here. But
that is only part of the solution. There needs to be a overall, global
change in our state in how things operate here. But so far I've seen
most people just feel inclined to bitch how bad things are and not find
viable solutions to the problems facing us. On top of that, most people
don't seem to feel inclined to vote or get involved in the government process.
Plus the politics of "no" is killing this state in my opinion.

geez each passing day, I'm sounding more and more like a politician

just my .25 for today

Well, Aaron, I think you've already proved you care about the future of the Big Island by writing all those passionate Letters to the Editor re Hokulia. Don't give up in frustration yet. There are probably many others who share your opinion but who haven't figured out that they, too, can make a difference if they care to.

Miulang

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Don't worry, I'm nowhere close to giving up. I have and always will be a burr
up those government officials butt to bring positive change to Hawaii. As
I've mentioned before, I'm deeply concerned about the direction Hawaii is taking.
Unless changes are made, it won't be a bright future for the 50th state.

[waiz4kooks]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

whats sad is especially on the North SHore you'll have a 3 million dollar mansion and then a literal shack right next to it.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Guru's been talkin Bubble & Crash for over 3 years now.

In Hawaii, appreciation has dropped from over 40% annual to around 15%. Some call it a bubble. I call it a great ROI.

Hey, Mr Appraiser. Here's one of your ROIs. Buy at 12 million, sell at 5.6 million. Lets see, what is the ROI on that? Prices never go down for real estate, right?

From the HA, March 7, 2006

Kapiolani Shopping Plaza houses about a dozen tenants, including Al Phillips the Cleaner Inc., Supercuts, an Indonesian restaurant and Rent-a-Center.

The 34,644 square feet of land, which has a 150-foot building height limit, had been targeted for redevelopment more than a decade ago when Japan-based office building developer Tosei Shoji Co. bought it for $12 million in 1990.

A Texas partnership, Intco Properties LP, acquired the site in 1996 for $5.6 million, and about a year ago listed it for sale.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

whats sad is especially on the North SHore you'll have a 3 million dollar mansion and then a literal shack right next to it.

I don't know which I feel more sorry for. The guy in the shack trying to pay his property taxes or the dumby in the 3 million dollar home next to a shack.

Lucky you live Hawaii.

[Paul]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Hey, Mr Appraiser. Here's one of your ROIs. Buy at 12 million, sell at 5.6 million. Lets see, what is the ROI on that? Prices never go down for real estate, right?

From the HA, March 7, 2006

That was the last bubble which popped after the Japanese economy went south. The realestate people will tell you things are different this time. I don't know about that. What has happened in the past can still happen again. Time will show which one of us is right.

[Miulang]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

All I know is, history has a horrible way of repeating itself over and over and over...

Miulang

[timkona]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Demographics, Demographics, Demographics.

The number of births that took place in the 1950's was ASTONISHING. Over 8 million babies born in just 2 years - 56 & 57 - alone. So when you have 60+million humans on the brink of retiring, it only takes a very small % of them moving to Hawaii to really cause the market here to escalate. Very few "poor" retirees come to Hawaii.

Combine that fact with the politics of NO as they exist today in this state, and you can see that Demand is increasing while Supply is hampered in many ways.

The third major component is that Hawaii is always behind the mainland by about 10 years in terms of society. The baby boom in Hawaii took place in the mid-60's. So now there is two ends of the demographic spectrum buying homes here - the retirees & the young, working adults who build their mansions

I predict that Hawaiian Real Estate Markets will continue to rise steadily(though not at the recent 40% rates) until the politics of NO come to grips with the reality of demographics & land use in Hawaii.

And no matter what, when the boomers start dying off around 2020, the economy will be in for a long term slowdown that could rival the 1930's. Better pray that event does not coincide with the decline of the petro-dollar in favor of the petro-Euro, which is a very real possibility.

I just love the combined science of Economics/Sociology.

[Paul]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Tim,
Just for the record, I don't think you are dishonest. You really believe in what you say but the belief in something doesn't mean it is or will become true. I think interest rates are also a big factor to be considered. It they go back up again, you'll see realestate prices go down big time. Just imagine what 10%+ rates would do. It has happened in the past so it can happen again.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

The realestate people will tell you things are different this time.

Hah, hah, hah, hah. Thats right Paul. They always come up with why "this time it's different". They have to say that or they won't close the deal.

Amazing how so many can do that with a straight face and no guilt at all, eh?

Takes an interesting character to be in real estate sales today.

Aloha

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Demographics, Demographics, Demographics.

The number of births that took place in the 1950's was ASTONISHING. Over 8 million babies born in just 2 years - 56 & 57 - alone. So when you have 60+million humans on the brink of retiring, it only takes a very small % of them moving to Hawaii to really cause the market here to escalate. Very few "poor" retirees come to Hawaii.

Retirees aren't moving to Hawaii at all, statistically speaking. Last bust in 1993, Hawaii's population started to shrink.

Retirees are going to Florida, Wyoming, Texas and other places with no income tax and low overall taxes. They aren't coming to tax hell so that they can live in heat and humidity that would cause a stroke for most, and have to chase cockroaches and geckos and ants and beetles and spiders and everyother of gods jungle bugs out of their house. They aren't moving 3000 miles away from their kids and grandkids. They aren't going to live in a place that xenophobic and hostile to newcomers.

No way. Hawaii has always had 5 month snowbirds but never any significant immigration of full time resident retirees.

Retirement demographic is irrelevant. Hawaii's low incomes and future high interest rates are what matters. That will bring home prices down by 30, 40 or 50% with inflation.

[Konaguy]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Kamuelakea if you stay so smart who is buying all these new million dollar
homes up on the Kohala Coast. I see a lot of retirees moving here
to Kona. There has been a shift to that population here at least
on the Big Island. Don't try to deny it as I see it on a daily basis
with my job (no I'm not in real estate). All I do know is your spreading undue trepidation and fear that there will be huge crash without any rock solid facts to back it up. In other words your crystal ball stay broke.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

Kamuelakea if you stay so smart who is buying all these new million dollar
homes up on the Kohala Coast. I see a lot of retirees moving here
to Kona. There has been a shift to that population here at least
on the Big Island. Don't try to deny it as I see it on a daily basis
with my job (no I'm not in real estate).

There are millionaires buying trophy homes. But they compete with other millionaires buying trophy homes. They don't complete with Joe sixpack trying to buy a 3bd/2bath 30 year old single wall, plaster home in town. They compete with themselves. The % of new retirees on the big island is still minute compared to the number of full time working residents. They will have far less affect on home prices than interest rates and incomes.

There were japanese buying trophy properties all over Hawaii in the early 90s. Where did they go? They sold for a loss and left town 5 years later. WHat about dat japanee buggah, genshiro kawamoto???, or close, who bought nearly 200 homes on Oahu in the early 1990s. Guess what? Bruddah lost money on most. He even GAVE Bishop Estate BACK the Leashhold home at Portlock. Juss gave um the keys back to a home he bought for millions a few years earlier. That's what happens when it goezzz bussssst.

No worry Arron. You should be checking out which million dollar home you want so in 5 years you can pick one up for a steal.

[kamuelakea]

Re: Million-dollar mansions just ain't what they used to be

I just love the combined science of Economics/Sociology.

REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY ONELINERS:

It’s not a house it’s a home.
Buy now or you’ll be priced out forever.
Renting is just throwing your money away.
You have to live somewhere.
They’re not making any more of it.
Real estate never goes down.
You’re just kidding yourself if you’re waiting for prices to fall.
Never a better time to buy!
I think you have a deep-seated fear of commitment.
Never try to time the market (when it’s falling).
It’s different this time.
_(insert location)_ is so desirable, people will want to live here no matter how expensive it gets.
Boomers/immigrants/rich people will keep prices permanently high.
Prices have achieved a permanently high plateau/new paradigm/soft landing.
_(insert location)_ is land-locked.
If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, you’ll be waiting forever.
You can’t lose in real estate –it’s a no-brainer.
Real estate’s seasonal; after _(insert holiday)_ things will return to normal.
The last housing drop was caused by _(insert unique, non-repeatable event: 9-11, collapse of Soviet Union, earthquake, hurricane, etc.)_; it’ll NEVER happen again.
STOP LOW-BALLING! STOP!! I REALLY MEAN IT!!!


QUOTES I'LD LIKE TO SEE:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Why, yes, I do drive looking through my rear-view mirror. Why do you ask?
Prices are not falling; they’re just appreciating in a different direction.
It’s perfectly normal for inventory to quintuple this time of year.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
These are not the droids you’re looking for, move along.
Didn’t I tell you NOT to low-ball?! STOP IT ALREADY!!!


source: patrick.net