The Governor's Race 2006

[pzarquon]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

6.7 quake a stroke of 'good luck' for Lingle

Heading into the closing weeks of her campaign for re-election as governor, did Linda Lingle have her "Giuliani moment" this weekend as the state was hit with a smash-mouth earthquake and a massive power outage?

I, personally, think it's too early to say. It certainly wasn't a "Bush 9/11" moment, and I'd say her personal actions and statements in the wake of the quake were excellent political performances... but people are going to be looking at the bigger picture -- the whole state emergency system -- and I don't know if it would get quite as high a grade.

After all, a lot of the "constructive criticism" I'm reading now reminds me a lot of the kinds of Monday-morning quarterbacking people did after the whole freeway shutdown. "Next time we're tested, we'll prove we know what we're doing," was the message. And in that respect, the test has only just begun.

I also disagree with anyone who lumps Aiona in with Lingle as someone whose performance proves capability under fire. He signed a couple of things and talked story with Perry & Price... but I found random callers to be sharper and more informed than him.

I personally felt less safe thinking he was running things while the governor was on the Big Island, and breathed a sigh of relief when she made her first official statements at the Capitol shortly after noon. Jerry Burris might think Lingle's presence in Waikoloa was good luck, but I think it was a close call with real disaster!

[GeckoGeek]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

I only hope that the other candidates don't jump on this and politicize it.

Too Late

Someone tell Abercrombie to shut up. If he'd open the front if his phone book he'd know there was to be no siren during Sunday's event. Sirens are to warn, not to sound the all clear. If that wasn't to his liking, then he should have said something a lot sooner, like under Ariyoshi or Cayetano's administration.

Firing off the sirens right after the earthquake would have likely panicked everyone into running for higher ground, not turn on the radio.

The Democrats are looking like a bunch whinny children.

[pzarquon]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

I agree the sirens would've led to panic, but there's no reason why the Emergency Broadcast System couldn't have been activated to get some information out over the airwaves. Lots of radio station towers were functioning, but their studios were knocked out. It was such a waste to have clear signals of silence that morning (and that canned "public affairs" show), when so many people were desperate for information.

A couple of people I know found out there would be no tsunami from friends calling to check on them from the Mainland. That people across the ocean would know a vital fact about our islands before we did is apalling.

I agree, Abercrombie and Iwase are whiny and protesting too much. But to say that the system worked perfectly or according to procedure is counterintuitive. We have a way to get word out, and we didn't use it. Let's hope Lingle's commission comes up with some pretty simple, common sense changes before the next crisis.

[tracksuporter]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

Faked newspaper headlines?


Democratic Party officials are apologizing after Randy Iwase and Malama Solomon, the Democratic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, ran a series of television ads with phony headlines pasted onto a copy of the Honolulu Advertiser.


http://starbulletin.com/2006/10/19/news/story07.html

[pzarquon]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

Seems the Democrats are continuing the "stupid mistakes" tradition that Ed Case's campaign firmly established in the congressional race. I love this part of the linked article:

Although state law requires the governor and lieutenant governor candidates to run as a team in the general election, Iwase said yesterday that the ads were placed by Solomon.

"It was paid for by the Friends of Malama Solomon. We didn't put any ads on TV," Iwase said.

Asked about the ad yesterday, Iwase said he did not know if the allegations were true.

"I wasn't involved with the ad. She put that ad together on her own," he said.

And Solomon, who usually has no problem ensuring her voice is heard, is apparently so far MIA. Doesn't look like there's much affection between Iwase and Solomon, further evidence that the Democratic ticket for governor is basically a non-starter.

[tracksuporter]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

I love this part of the linked article:

Although state law requires the governor and lieutenant governor candidates to run as a team in the general election, Iwase said yesterday that the ads were placed by Solomon.

"It was paid for by the Friends of Malama Solomon. We didn't put any ads on TV," Iwase said.

Asked about the ad yesterday, Iwase said he did not know if the allegations were true.

"I wasn't involved with the ad. She put that ad together on her own," he said.

I think Iwase's response is worse than the ads themselves. He SHOULD know what is in the ads. He's basically saying that he doesn't know what's going on.

And he should take responsiblity whether he made them or not. And how about an apology?

[GeckoGeek]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

there's no reason why the Emergency Broadcast System couldn't have been activated to get some information out over the airwaves.

The state eventually did that, but much later. I think the proper way to deal with it is for NOAA Weather radio WR-SAME a message from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and that flowed into the EAS system. Again, the system is designed to send warning, but some thought needs to be giving on sending messages to counter natural warnings. I know NOAA is the voice of PTWC, and I'd hope that KSSK is monitoring NOAA Weather Radio, so the only thing left is to create guidelines as to when a local earthquake event with no tsunami hazard should be SAME encoded. I think that solves the problem in the simplest way possible.

The state or county would still have to send a EAS message later when the magnitude of the power situation came clear. That's the one telling everyone to stay home, conserve water, etc.

I did notice that one article stated that OCDA tried to send a EBS message (huh? I thought EBS was the old system replaced by EAS?)

[GeckoGeek]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

http://starbulletin.com/2006/10/19/news/story07.html

Democratic candidate for governor Randy Iwase says he would have done a better job handling the state's reaction to Sunday's earthquakes than Republican Gov. Linda Lingle.

Doubt it. Not when he can't even handle his own campaign.

Continuing:

But not everyone in Iwase's party agrees about Lingle's performance. U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye praised her.

During a news conference after taking an aerial survey of the damage, Inouye was asked about the state's performance.

"When one considers our communication system came to a sudden halt, it was magnificent. On the whole the governor did well," Inouye said.

It's nice to see someone not fall into partisan politics. As for Iwase, I think that's the last straw. The only thing left for him is to loose gracefully and not ruin his future or mess things up for the other Democrats.

[Keanu]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

There is only one choice in this election....Linda Lingle. I am a Democrat who will once again be voting for a Republican for Governor. Untill the Democratic party gets its act together, they'll continue to be losers on their own home turf.

[TuNnL]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

I think the most telling sign that there was no secret weapon in the Dem’s gubernatorial arsenal, is when Malama Solomon quit chairing Iwase’s campaign to become his Lt. Gov. Basically, it means she couldn’t find anyone exciting to be his running mate, so she had to step up and do the job herself.

Now look all the pilikia when you get two candidates on the same ticket going in opposite directions. Sad. I say this time Lingle keeps some campaign cash for a rainy day. It’s that over. Say buh-bye!

[Beachboy]

Re: Hirono vs. Hogue

Then how did she win. UH professors are a few hundred votes. That's not it. Teachers probably did give her a bunch of votes just because they hated Cayetano. There aren't enough Haoles (especially republicans) in hawaii to explain her victory. Somehow she was able to appeal to a certain percentage of the other voters.

she seemed to have picked up steam from the GOP's national growth/movement after 9/11. To me it's a wonder she was elected gov. of Hawaii? She did absolutely nothing to improve the lives of Maui residents when she was Mayor there. Some might go as far as to say she ruined their personal lives while Mayor of Maui!!!!

Giving all the bad press the GOP is getting lately...perhaps she should wait to announce her political intentions?

[TuNnL]

Re: Hirono vs. Hogue

Giving all the bad press the GOP is getting lately...perhaps she should wait to announce her political intentions?

A run for re-election as governor is a given for Lingle as she has a major fundraising lead over her Democratic opponent and the last Advertiser poll showed her with 64% of the survey’s support (nearly double the Randy Iwase and undecided vote combined).

As far as her run for national office (i.e. Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s seat), I would say she IS actually “waiting to annouce her political intentions.” In fact, she has said publicly if re-elected, she intends to serve out her full 4-year term as Governor (though my money says her PR team will figure out a way for her to break this promise).

[pzarquon]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

Hawaii Political Watch takes a stab at predicting the outcome of the gubernatorial race next month. A win for Lingle, either way, but the point made is that it could actually be closer than most think. In short, Iwase could lose 61%-31%, but could do as well as 52%-48%.

What it does show is that by specifically targeting Aila and Tanabe voters, the Iwase campaign has a realistic shot at making this a close race. And, utilizing the election results, they should be able to find concentrations of these voters which further reduces the money and resource problems of an under-funded campaign.

I still think it'll be a cakewalk for Lingle. Though I've recently been surprised by a couple of acquaintences going with Iwase in early voting.

[pzarquon]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

I've gotten three robocalls from Lingle on my cell phone, and it's really ticking me off. Especially since they've deliberately blocked Caller ID. The least they could do is disclose themselves so I don't have to interrupt something to take their pitch.

Meanwhile, local commentators have noted that Lingle is suddenly getting tough -- or, depending on your perspective, suddenly getting scared. Instead of the warm and fuzzy "Lingle plus Hawaii equals Happy!" strategy, they're going directly after Iwase. Naming him, blurring out photos of him, and coming up with the most ridiculous radio ad this election season, where a little girl asks why Iwase is being mean to "aunty Linda."

If your campaign was a total cakewalk, you wouldn't even have to acknowledge you have an opponent. (See Also: Daniel Akaka.) That Lingle has suddenly turned up the heat says quite a bit.

For the most part I think Lingle is, on balance, a better choice than Iwase. But I might vote for Iwase, like some of my friends, if only so she feels at least a little bump when she drives over him.

[ttamasese]

Re: The Governor's Race 2006

Randy Iwase
118,000 - Votes from Primary
10,000 - Votes from William Aila supporters (out of 40,000)
43,000 - Votes from HGEA
13,000 - Votes from HSTA
12,000 - Votes from Local 5
+ 5,000 - Votes from Akaka and Inouye supporters
_______
201,000 votes


Linda Lingle
1998 vs. Cayetano - 199,000 votes - Spent $2,100,000 - Lots of Buzz
2002 vs. Hirono - 197,000 votes - Spent $5,400,000 - Buzz
2006 vs. Iwase - 196,500 votes - Spent $5,800,000 - No Buzz

My prediction:
Iwase - 201,000 - 50%
Lingle - 196,500 - 49%
Other/Blank - 1%

Randy Iwase wins.