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Re: Did you vote early?
This probably belongs somewhere else, but the over/under thread is closed. I'd just like to say that I wouldn't call it "skepticism" that led me to set the line at 40%, but realism. I knew the numbers would be not quite as high as some were saying; first of all, who votes in those walk-in absentee places? Not people who otherwise would skip the ballot box on Saturday.
Second, I read that article pz linked before I set the line. I allowed for the high profile of the two congressional races, but I also considered a non-existent governor's race and a slow year on City Council ballots in Honolulu. I didn't think the football game would be a factor (being a road game); I don't think weather really plays a part either.
My goal was to get as many people on the wrong side of the line as possible, so I had to set the line lower than I thought people would go; I just set it TOO low. I don't think anyone who chose "over" would have taken the under if I'd set the line at, say 43.8%, which is still quite low. I'm disappointed in myself.
This probably belongs somewhere else, but the over/under thread is closed. I'd just like to say that I wouldn't call it "skepticism" that led me to set the line at 40%, but realism. I knew the numbers would be not quite as high as some were saying; first of all, who votes in those walk-in absentee places? Not people who otherwise would skip the ballot box on Saturday.
Second, I read that article pz linked before I set the line. I allowed for the high profile of the two congressional races, but I also considered a non-existent governor's race and a slow year on City Council ballots in Honolulu. I didn't think the football game would be a factor (being a road game); I don't think weather really plays a part either.
My goal was to get as many people on the wrong side of the line as possible, so I had to set the line lower than I thought people would go; I just set it TOO low. I don't think anyone who chose "over" would have taken the under if I'd set the line at, say 43.8%, which is still quite low. I'm disappointed in myself.
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