Rail Transit

[Leo Lakio]

Re: Rail Transit

If Sounder Transit isn't a Seattle rail transit system, then by extension Seattle has no bus system either (since the same organization runs both systems), eh?

Incorrect once again. Sound Transit runs the Sounder trains, and is building the light-rail system. The bus system in Seattle is run by King County Metro, a completely separate operation.

Give it a rest, salmoned. You clearly haven't a clue what you are talking about. But the rest of us have known that for quite some time.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With your "knowledge" of All Things Seattle, however, I am sure you are intimately familiar with the public sculpture located in the Fremont neighborhood, beneath the north end of the Aurora bridge.

[salmoned]

Re: Rail Transit

I stand corrected. However, my position isn't invalidated by my error or your correction. Why don't you admit that the Sounder commuter rail transit system IS a greater metropolitan Seattle commuter rail system - one that can be usefully compared to the proposed system in Honolulu. Refusing to acknowledge and discuss the applicable similarities and differences is willful ignorance and adds nothing to the thread. Seattle has a commuter rail system, has had one for years, and it's been more expensive and less used than anticipated. Fare subsidies have been 7X fares on an immediate operating basis and much higher when considering fully amortized capitalization costs.

Lets imagine we have a visitor arrive at the airport and they choose to take rail into town (Ala Moana, proposed end-of-line). Perhaps the fare is $5.00, with a city operating subsidy of $15.00 (comparable to Seattle's subsidy, which doesn't include capitalization costs). They shop around and return by rail to the airport. The visitor would have to spend $6,000.00 at Ala Moana Shopping Center for the city to only recover the subsidy provided for the visitor's rail trip (assuming the .5% tax for rail transit remains the same). Sounds ridiculous, but the reality is even more ridiculous - our subsidies will actually be higher, even though our ridership will be much higher, because our costs will be enormously higher.

A few years ago cost estimates for a rail line from the airport to town in Washington, D.C. was $3.6 billion, last year the estimate had risen to $5.1 billion. However, traffic planners insist the rail line will not reduce freeway traffic.

[joshuatree]

Re: Rail Transit

JTree, what ever makes you think any bus drivers will be out of jobs with rail? There will be no less of a need for City busses, in fact it will probably increase, as you even mentioned feeder routes. Taxi's as well.
They have their ears to the ground on these matters and enjoy unique positions to have worthwhile opinions.

I don't see much of any of this rail plan being workable, and if it's with Hawaii based firms doing the planning and labor, then I'm less than hopeful.

Now why would the number of buses increase? Currently the fleet is around 525. If rail is built and running, most of the current bus routes that traverse east-west will be duplicate and be eliminated. In turn, these freed up buses can be used on feeder routes. Feeder as the word implies won't be a very long route. You need less number of buses to main a certain frequency on a short route vs a long route. So at best, the current fleet size will be maintained. Otherwise, it should decline which would be the goal if you want to maximize the most return from a bus/rail combo. So if you're a young bus driver with many years of service left in your career, it's something to wonder. And one thing is for sure, a rail won't enable a massive expansion of the bus fleet so no massive expansion of bus jobs.

[salmoned]

Re: Rail Transit

Leo Lakio, I believe if you were to be honest here, you would have made note that Seattle voted for a $1.67 billion (1995 equivalent) light rail system in 1996 and is currently facing a completion estimate (still only an estimate) of over $4 billion (1995 equivalent) by Sound Transit. Either you believe the cost overruns are immaterial or you're waiting to see the final tally, while we debate yea or nay on rail over already outdated and incomplete cost estimates of $3.6 billion - everyone involved (less the public) KNOWS those figures are impossibly low, even were planning completed and construction to begin today.

Joshuatree, you're assuming rail won't require an additional 'upgrade' transfer fee above that of The Bus. If bus fares are raised to cover a portion of rail costs, yes, some of those bus routes will go away (not all, because many riders, including students and the elderly, only go relatively short distances (home/school/stores) along those routes. On the other hand, if we don't go back to timed unlimited transfers (or 2 transfers/fare), we may have to pay for the bus, upgrade to a rail transfer (or just pay a separate rail fare), then pay for another bus ride at the destination rail station to get from Ewa Beach to Waikiki or UH Manoa. A large number of those current routes are already duplicate, but since we only get one transfer/fare, one can't transfer to other, faster buses along the same route if a transfer to another bus down the line is required (without paying another fare). Naturally this doesn't apply to pass holders.

[Ron Whitfield]

Re: Rail Transit

I seriously doubt there will be one bit of reduction in bus service. It's not like everybody will all jump off the bus onto rail on the count of 3. I don't plan on using it. Current bus routes/times will have to stay basically the same for those many who will remain bus riders. Routes eliminated? No way. I envision unending problems with rail, keeping The Bus in hot demand.

The increase of buses/drivers will be due to new needs, much like the new routes for The Boat, and them feeders.
The Bus has been hiring drivers like crazy, so something must be up besides retirees saying Aloha.

[Composite 2992]

Re: Rail Transit

Looks like "Stop Rail Now" has been derailed.

From the Star-Bulletin:

"The Hawaii Supreme Court this afternoon upheld a Circuit Court decision that an anti-rail group needs 45,000 signatures in order for its initiative question to appear on the November ballot."

The City Clerk said only 35,065 signatures were verified of the 49,000 SRN collected.

[joshuatree]

Re: Rail Transit

Joshuatree, you're assuming rail won't require an additional 'upgrade' transfer fee above that of The Bus. If bus fares are raised to cover a portion of rail costs, yes, some of those bus routes will go away (not all, because many riders, including students and the elderly, only go relatively short distances (home/school/stores) along those routes. On the other hand, if we don't go back to timed unlimited transfers (or 2 transfers/fare), we may have to pay for the bus, upgrade to a rail transfer (or just pay a separate rail fare), then pay for another bus ride at the destination rail station to get from Ewa Beach to Waikiki or UH Manoa. A large number of those current routes are already duplicate, but since we only get one transfer/fare, one can't transfer to other, faster buses along the same route if a transfer to another bus down the line is required (without paying another fare). Naturally this doesn't apply to pass holders.

I am assuming no additional upgrade transfer fees based on what the city's AA report states. So unless there is new information coming from the city on this project, that's what I will base my answers on.

Personally, I rather they abolish transfers and lower the fare. It's fairer and more appropriate that the person who travels further on the system should pay more. A monthly unlimited pass would be the carrot to entice more people to public transportation when they realize they need not worry about transfer fares. Of course, some will argue about those with lower incomes but isn't that what senior and student passes address?

Looks like "Stop Rail Now" has been derailed.

From the Star-Bulletin:

"The Hawaii Supreme Court this afternoon upheld a Circuit Court decision that an anti-rail group needs 45,000 signatures in order for its initiative question to appear on the November ballot."

The City Clerk said only 35,065 signatures were verified of the 49,000 SRN collected.

I wonder what they will complain about now? I have a feeling even if the Nov ballot shows a majority vote pro-rail, these guys will still find something to complain.

[salmoned]

Re: Rail Transit

I missed the part that discusses fares in that report, could you mention the chapter and page number?

Here is something I found, "Current am peak-period travel times for motorists from West Oahu to Downtown average between 45 and 81 minutes. By 2030, after including all of the planned roadway improvements in the ORTP, this travel time is projected to increase to between 53 and 83 minutes. " WOW, if we go with the No Build Alternative we'll see travel time increase by 2 to 8 minutes in 2030 for Kapolei to Downtown during rush hour, while saving at least 3.6 billion dollars - oooh, I shudder at the possibility!

Here's another nugget, "Currently express bus travel times from Ewa Beach to Downtown range from 45 to 76 minutes." So right now, if you take the express bus from Ewa Beach to Downtown, you'll save time over driving, on average! Rail won't improve that figure, the report is quite clear on this. However, we will lose those express buses if rail is put into service - so you can clearly see why I might be against rail. It costs a lot of money and it won't improve rush hour public transit for riders from Ewa Beach to Makaha going into town. It also won't improve public transit for most other areas, though some areas right on the line will see improvements in travel time, but overall the picture is quite clear.

[joshuatree]

Re: Rail Transit

I missed the part that discusses fares in that report, could you mention the chapter and page number?

Here is something I found, "Current am peak-period travel times for motorists from West Oahu to Downtown average between 45 and 81 minutes. By 2030, after including all of the planned roadway improvements in the ORTP, this travel time is projected to increase to between 53 and 83 minutes. " WOW, if we go with the No Build Alternative we'll see travel time increase by 2 to 8 minutes in 2030 for Kapolei to Downtown during rush hour, while saving at least 3.6 billion dollars - oooh, I shudder at the possibility!

Here's another nugget, "Currently express bus travel times from Ewa Beach to Downtown range from 45 to 76 minutes." So right now, if you take the express bus from Ewa Beach to Downtown, you'll save time over driving, on average! Rail won't improve that figure, the report is quite clear on this. However, we will lose those express buses if rail is put into service - so you can clearly see why I might be against rail. It costs a lot of money and it won't improve rush hour public transit for riders from Ewa Beach to Makaha going into town. It also won't improve public transit for most other areas, though some areas right on the line will see improvements in travel time, but overall the picture is quite clear.

Chapter 2, page 2-8.

"The system is planned to operate with a unified fare structure with TheBus, with transfers and passes usable on both systems."


Chapter 5, page 5-13.

"Fare revenues were estimated by multiplying the current average fare, adjusted for inflation, by the number of expected riders."


Table 3-5 has the park and ride locations for any interested.


Chapter 3, page 3-9.

"Express routes that deviate more than five minutes from the Fixed Guideway alignments would not be revised and would continue to serve their routes as planned."

The express from Ewa Beach won't be eliminated.

[salmoned]

Re: Rail Transit

Ah, wonderful! I don't know how they'll keep all the 'good' routes and do away with the 'bad' routes. I'd like to believe, but when I see flawed analysis like this it's rather difficult,"The majority of a.m. peak-period transit trips are relatively short and stay within the same community area they originate in, or else terminate in the adjacent community area. This suggests that transit for the No Build Alternative is not conducive to longer trips because of the slow travel times experienced as a result of the congested roadway network." What it really suggests is that a lot of students are taking the bus to school and a good number of workers live close to their workplaces and all is well in the world for that majority.

The cheapest rail alternative (the 20 mile alignment Kapolei to Ala Moana) cost estimate in the Alternative Analysis is $323.41 million/year for 22 years for planning, construction (amortized to 2030) and operating costs, which works out to 7.1 billion dollars. That’s the 2006 estimate, in 2006 equivalent dollars, before the 80% increase in the price of steel we’ve seen over the past 2 years, before the increases in energy and other commodity costs. $7.1 Billion, not the $3.6 billion advertised. It’s been right there in the Alternative Analysis for anyone to see. They're also estimating that rail transit will attract about 50,000 more riders (I guess only 25,000 if you count round trips) to public transit than no rail (the largest Park & Ride scheme has only 8,950 parking spaces spread out across the rail system for a ridership of 125,000/day?).

[TuNnL]

Re: Rail Transit

Looks like "Stop Rail Now" has been derailed. From the Star-Bulletin:

"The Hawaii Supreme Court this afternoon upheld a Circuit Court decision that an anti-rail group needs 45,000 signatures in order for its initiative question to appear on the November ballot."

The City Clerk said only 35,065 signatures were verified of the 49,000 SRN collected.

I wonder what they will complain about now? I have a feeling even if the Nov ballot shows a majority vote pro-rail, these guys will still find something to complain.

My gut is they will stand down since the city will have their own rail question on the ballot. Obviously, Slater and gang’s agenda dictated throwing a misleading question at the general public for maximum rail stoppage effect. But the city managed to sidestep the Stop Rail shibai, in favor of a much more honest and fair inquiry into the feelings of Hawai‘i voters on the transit issue. Hopefully, this election finally puts the should we/shouldn’t we aspect of the debate to rest.

In the mean time, someone tell me how the League of Women Voters debate on transit managed to garner nearly two hours of uninterrupted time on YouTube.

[sansei]

Re: Rail Transit

hi this is sansei and if it happened that rail got de-railed by a certain group,then we as citizen's would wait 16 or more year's before it's brought up again and i wouldnt think anyone would wait that long and we need rail and everyone need's to stop,stop rail now and i hope our great mayor will win with rail.


well thank's for your time

[sansei]

Re: Rail Transit

hi this is sansei and i just Ann k's new commericial and she think's rubber on concrete could be the best way only i disagree is i saw it with my eye's that it look's just like a modified bus and it's not like steel on steel rail and that's the true rail so i thought to share this with everyone.

well thank's for your time

[sansei]

Re: Rail Transit

hi this is sansei and im voting for our great mayor since he will put rail on the map and what i heard that what stop rail now by playing from their truck the noise of the rail,that's not what it sound's like,it's much more quiet and they stop rail now is thinking back to when they had the loud train's on track's way back when so that's how stop rail now is thinking and i've rode bart and it's quiet and efficient and i like it.

well thank's for your time

[sansei]

Re: Rail Transit

hi this is sansei and one more fact on how panos think's on rail and that's how in the mainland that they have what is called a muni bus and that's what he think's a rail would sound like only i know by riding bart that it's quiet and effective so i thought to share this with everyone.

well thank's for your time