"Peak Oil"

[Miulang]

400,000 barrel/day loss of oil from Alaska

BP had to shut down part of the Alaska pipeline yesterday (Sunday) due to the discovery of structural weaknesses in part of the pipeline. As of this morning, BP could not say how long the shut down and repair would take. What is known is that about 400,000 barrels of oil will not be pumped and sent to West Coast refineries for however long it takes BP to repair the line.

Analysts say that if the US strategic oil supply (estimated at about 700 million barrels) is not tapped during this period, prices at the gas pump could increase significantly.

And for the State of Alaska, it represents a quandry. When the oil is flowing, it pours money into the State treasury and benefits the citizens. If the pipeline suffers from a major rupture, there would be another Exxon Valdez catastrophe, with devastating damage to the tundra and its wildlife.

Miulang

[Bard]

Re: "Peak Oil"

Been studying this issue for a while now... If you want the Chicken Little perspective, check out End of Suburbia. On the other hand, if you want a realistic assessment, check out End of Suburbia

It's a big deal. It's really not the price of gas going up that matters (though that's going to cause more and more troubles for people who can't afford it to get to work). The real problem is that our whole economy is based on the idea of constant growth, which requires energy inputs, which are (or have been) easiest to obtain from oil, coal, and more recently NG. We're super dependent on things being made in specialized factories, in areas that have specialized to make them... and then shipping them 2000 miles (and that's just on the mainland...).

Ironically a group who did a study of the top "most prepared" cities put Honolulu right up there near the top, due to lack of sprawl, good public transit, good access to ports, and reasonable amounts of local food. Good going guys

I dunno what will fix peak oil in the long run really, except get your own finances in order in case the worst case scenario happens. Maui's got the right idea with their wind farm. Hawai'i is in a fantastic position actually, if the worst comes to pass -- geothermal power, tidal power, wind power, solar power... you guys are energy-wealthy beyond reason. If hydrogen fuel cell production ever becomes a practical reality, Hawai'i might find itself with a new export industry.

[Miulang]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

The Star Bulletin had a very interesting op-ed piece this morning about the impact of this impending phenomenon on Hawaii.

HAWAII HAS one of the highest rates of per capita oil consumption in the world. Our rate in Hawaii is twice that of the U.S. average; four times the average of Europe and 28 times that of China. Moreover, oil not only fuels our transportation and electricity-generating plants, it also fuels the airplanes that fuel our tourist-based economy and the ships that bring in almost all of our food and consumer goods. Un- or insufficiently mitigated oil supply shortfalls will hit Hawaii much harder than almost any other place in the world.

There are several supply and demand-side opportunities for Hawaii that are attractive and make economic sense. While some might appear to be "uneconomical" now under assumptions of ever-increasing energy supplies and a healthy economy, they will prove to be prudent and forward-looking remedies in the years and decades to come. Hawaii's hope for a sustainable future is best served through serious and meaningful plans to mitigate our over-dependence on oil before any supply shortfalls appear.

The part that surprises me is fuel consumption is way higher for residents of Hawaii than on CONUS, even with the cost of buying fuel being more expensive (which in most other instances would cause consumption to go down), fewer miles of roads on which to drive and with no winter heating bills.

The Legislature needs to continue to push for ways to create alternative sources of energy and to move people around and get those plans in place now, while there is still time. The economic impact of scarce supplies of fuel will impact almost every aspect of every person's life in Hawaii--from the food you eat to the clothes you wear to the jobs you have.

One positive step is planning for more public transportation. The new statewide tax increases that will be effective Jan. 1 to help build a better public transportation system on Oahu are going to be very painful in the short term, but it should help the people of Honolulu get on with their lives in the long run. But it's really important that you, the taxpayers also keep those people planning this system honest about a budget and how your tax dollars are spent.

I don't wish for Hawai'i taxpayers to subsidize a bottomless pit project like Seattle did, where the budget kept increasing and the services being proposed kept decreasing to the point that the voters finally killed the project last year (original estimates of $2 billion were for a monorail line that went from the northern boundary of Seattle almost to the airport [about 26 miles] with multiple routes; by the time the project was killed, it was only going to be a single line about 6 miles long and cost the city taxpayers $13 billion and we'd have to pay extra car licensing fees for 40 years to pay off the bill ).

Unfortunately for the Neighbor Islands, even though they will also be subject to the statewide tax increases, they will not benefit from the funding for the time being, even though there are critical transportation needs in many of those communities, too.

Miulang

[mel]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

No matter which way it is spun, the bottom line is that this upcoming TAX HIKE STINKS!
It's so easy for people who live on the mainland to continually spin this when they don't have to pay our taxes as long as they stay there.

Happy New Year?

[Miulang]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

No matter which way it is spun, the bottom line is that this upcoming TAX HIKE STINKS!
It's so easy for people who live on the mainland to continually spin this when they don't have to pay our taxes as long as they stay there.

Happy New Year?

All I'm saying is, since the tax increase is inevitable (unless the Legislature repeals it), the best you can do is remain vigilant about how the money is used. I use the Seattle Monorail Project as a prime example and cautionary tale of how good intentions can go awry when the voters are asleep at the wheel. Your boss should be making a really big deal about accountability for the tax money being spent, Mel, until he can get his constituents to work with him to repeal the tax.

Miulang

[Bard]

Re: "Peak Oil"

Since this topic was last brought up I've actually been seeing some encouraging signs. A lot of my family back home, who are very much the type to big the biggest SUV they can (not) afford, are starting to trade in their gas-guzzlers for little fuel efficient sedans now, because they're feeling the crunch of gas costs. A lot more businesses are now moving over to "green" power as well, and using it as an advertising campaign. That implies a shift in public perspective on the whole situation, and it may create some breathing room in which people can start fixing things. It remains to be seen if we'll proceed to fix or just fall back into complacency like we did in the 80s.

I saw a great letter to the editor the other day from NYT where they basically said: my clothes and everything else I buy tell me where they were made. Why doesn't my gas and oil? If people thought a little bit about it they might consider it their patriotic duty to get rid of our dependence on the people we dislike (hint: it starts with a 't' and ends with a 't').

None of this has anything to do with Hawai`i or the mainland per se, except that as Miulang's article points out, it's going to crunch you guys even harder than it will everyone else. Especially since so many things about Hawai`i got ramped up with what was available without considering long-term consequences (like making an electrical infrastructure so dependent on imported oil). And of course the fact that, as I pointed out above, you guys have an INCREDIBLY energy-rich place there if you'd capitalize on it. If technology can work past needing naturally produced hydrocarbons to store energy, Hawai`i could become a major energy exporter.

Sadly even this is probably an argument for sovereignty. My friend here was pointing out to me the other day how many programs they have in China to rid themselves of oil dependence vs what we have here, just because they can force them through ahead of the curve (not that I'm defending the Chinese gov't or anything, but... it has its points).

[Glen Miyashiro]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

The Star Bulletin had a very interesting op-ed piece this morning about the impact of this impending phenomenon on Hawaii.

The part that surprises me is fuel consumption is way higher for residents of Hawaii than on CONUS, even with the cost of buying fuel being more expensive (which in most other instances would cause consumption to go down), fewer miles of roads on which to drive and with no winter heating bills.

Two big reasons why we in Hawaiʻi use more oil than they do in America:

1. We use a lot more aviation fuel.

2. We use a lot less nuclear power.

[mel]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

All I'm saying is, since the tax increase is inevitable....

You certainly love to dictate what others should do here from 2,000+ miles away. Again it is easy for you to talk about this inspid tax without having to suffer the consequences as long as you stay away from the Hawaii you allegedly love so much. Me and everybody here will be stuck being slaves to the increased tax that will kick in no matter what the opponents try to do.

The legislature cannot be counted upon for repealing the tax. The Democrats are in more control now than they were before. It will be a cold day in hell before the GE tax is repealed by the tax loving Democrat majority.

The majority of the City Council and the Mayor are ramming the rail proposal down our throats despite all the testimony from opponents who say that the cost is too great (at the Dec. 7 hearing and earlier). But the rail and tax supporters have the unions, property developers, big businesses, construction industry and banks in their pocket. The most recent City Council hearings on the tax and rail issue all managed to bring a chorus of these tax and spend lunatics out to sing praises for the rail and the "funding mechanism" (tax).

City Councilmen Romy Cachola and I think Gary Okino have already alluded to even more tax increase proposals as they know the .5% increase scheduled to kick in will not fully fund this rail nightmare. The supporters are already beginning to accept the fact that building rail will not alleviate traffic congestion either. If they are accepting that, then why build it? It's make work for all the construction firms, unions and more money flowing into the banks and to developers.

Development rights along whatever the proposed route will be are already being discussed in these meetings.

Increased taxes = increased costs for everyone in Hawaii including all of the neighbor islanders who will be impacted by the GET that pays for a rail they will never, ever use. The problem with this GE Tax surcharge is that it is dedicated to one project only, that will benefit only a few.

And keeping this reponse in light of the topic "peak oil", I'm gonna say this. People love their own personal vehicles, whether it be a gas guzzling SUV or an thrifty little moped. We'll continue to depend on oil and willingly pay the price to keep those vehicles fueled and going. The difference between this and the rail tax is that we choose to fuel our vehicles but don't get to choose whether or not we want to fund rail. The funding decision has been made for us and will be rammed down our throats and into our wallets through the increased GE Tax on January 1.

Happy New Year?

[Bard]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

The difference between this and the rail tax is that we choose to fuel our vehicles but don't get to choose whether or not we want to fund rail. The funding decision has been made for us and will be rammed down our throats and into our wallets through the increased GE Tax on January 1.

New taxes always suck. The rail might be a completely horrible proposal, too. I don't think rail itself is, though the implementation there might be so bad that it needs to be scrapped and redone.

There may come a time in the not so distant future though when you don't get a chance to choose whether to fuel your vehicle or not because there's no fuel to be had for any price. Or perhaps fuel your vehicle vs eat/pay rent. It's already coming to that for some people I know here -- $500/mo for just gas is not unheard of for some of the exurb dwellers in my family.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

Two big reasons why we in Hawaiʻi use more oil than they do in America:

1. We use a lot more aviation fuel.

2. We use a lot less nuclear power.

#1 for sure. I think #2 has more to do with few other fuels for electricity.

However point #1 suggests we need to seriously start working our way away from tourism. No one has any alternative fuels for aircraft and they guzzle kerosene in staggering amounts. If anyone really believes we're due for a oil crises anytime in the next few decades, then we have to believe that tourism has we have known it will end too.

[brianca]

Re: "Peak Oil"

I personally think it's best to let the market drive the adoption of alternative fuel sources. As oil is depleted and cost increases, the market will seek less expensive alternatives. There's no need to force companies to do this before the market dictates it.

[GeckoGeek]

Re: "Peak Oil"

I personally think it's best to let the market drive the adoption of alternative fuel sources. As oil is depleted and cost increases, the market will seek less expensive alternatives. There's no need to force companies to do this before the market dictates it.

I don't completely disagree with that, but waiting for the market to "correct" itself could have some very painful short term issues. Personally what I'd like to see is government funded research and then let the market forces bring it to pass. Kinda like what the space program did for America's technology.

[joshuatree]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

You certainly love to dictate what others should do here from 2,000+ miles away. Again it is easy for you to talk about this inspid tax without having to suffer the consequences as long as you stay away from the Hawaii you allegedly love so much. Me and everybody here will be stuck being slaves to the increased tax that will kick in no matter what the opponents try to do.

It really isn't dictating since people who no longer live in Hawaii don't have any power in choosing the current elected leaders. It's just a lot of opinion. Besides, those who no longer live in Hawaii still may have plenty of relatives that do and pay tax. Also, the GET tax is not just for locals. Any visitor that sets foot on Oahu and spends on anything will be contributing too. So you could even say you've made all the tourists subsidize the rail project.

The legislature cannot be counted upon for repealing the tax. The Democrats are in more control now than they were before. It will be a cold day in hell before the GE tax is repealed by the tax loving Democrat majority.

The majority of the City Council and the Mayor are ramming the rail proposal down our throats despite all the testimony from opponents who say that the cost is too great (at the Dec. 7 hearing and earlier). But the rail and tax supporters have the unions, property developers, big businesses, construction industry and banks in their pocket. The most recent City Council hearings on the tax and rail issue all managed to bring a chorus of these tax and spend lunatics out to sing praises for the rail and the "funding mechanism" (tax).

City Councilmen Romy Cachola and I think Gary Okino have already alluded to even more tax increase proposals as they know the .5% increase scheduled to kick in will not fully fund this rail nightmare. The supporters are already beginning to accept the fact that building rail will not alleviate traffic congestion either. If they are accepting that, then why build it? It's make work for all the construction firms, unions and more money flowing into the banks and to developers.

Development rights along whatever the proposed route will be are already being discussed in these meetings.

I don't buy the rail is just some pet project of the construction industry, unions, banks, and property developers. If the tollway is chosen instead, which so many anti-rail folks champion, those same groups benefit. If you say it's special interests, you should take a look at honolulutraffic.com, an anti-rail site. All the island's taxi cab companies, Roberts Hawaii, Polynesian Hospitality, Limo companies, etc., are listed as anti-rail. Can you say special interests? Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure new roads benefit them the most.

Increased taxes = increased costs for everyone in Hawaii including all of the neighbor islanders who will be impacted by the GET that pays for a rail they will never, ever use. The problem with this GE Tax surcharge is that it is dedicated to one project only, that will benefit only a few.

And keeping this reponse in light of the topic "peak oil", I'm gonna say this. People love their own personal vehicles, whether it be a gas guzzling SUV or an thrifty little moped. We'll continue to depend on oil and willingly pay the price to keep those vehicles fueled and going. The difference between this and the rail tax is that we choose to fuel our vehicles but don't get to choose whether or not we want to fund rail. The funding decision has been made for us and will be rammed down our throats and into our wallets through the increased GE Tax on January 1.

Happy New Year?

As for neighbor islanders paying tax, the definition is that tax must be paid on income earned from business conducted on Oahu. How is that not fair? Isn't that what's already being done? Just that now there's an increase of 0.5%? It's not like neighbor islanders weren't already paying this tax?

People love their personal vehicles because it does provide convenience but also because it is insanely cheap. Maybe if the price of gas is more like $8 a gallon like in the UK, then that statement will change. I'm sure people love to have their own maids, their own private jet planes. Same logic, extremely convenient. But cost is prohibitive. Maybe we should go that route?

I think ultimately people are more upset over the tax then the rail itself. Maybe people should call for a revamp of the state's tax structure. Instead of a GET, maybe a GST, or a plain old sales tax. Otherwise, you can hop on the superferry and buy your goods from Maui to avoid the 0.5%. People in Washington do it all the time by trekking down to Oregon since they have 0% sales tax.

[joshuatree]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

2. We use a lot less nuclear power.

I didn't even know we used nuclear power.

We really could make a lot of the power we use right from our state. We have so much wind, sun, and wave energy, it's an embarrassment. Problem is we're just so complacent. We're always reactive instead of proactive. We wait till someone else somewhere figures out how to reap energy from the wind, sun, or wave, and then we timidly follow along. If we led the way in inventing this stuff, we could not only be self sufficient, but we could be the ones selling this tech to other places and thus creating a viable, self sustaining industry instead of just tourism.

[Miulang]

Re: "Peak Oil" and Hawaii

People in Washington do it all the time by trekking down to Oregon since they have 0% sales tax.

This is definitely true. We pay 8.1% sales tax in my county for everything but groceries (except for taxable groceries like soda and candy, cigarettes and alcohol--and the State imposes a pretty hefty additional sin tax on the ciggies and booze) for the privilege of having no State income tax. I once bought a toaster in OR just to save on the sales tax in WA .

People in WA used to sneak across the border to buy and register their cars in OR, too, but the WA State government got wise to that so they are relying on stool pigeons in the community to report OR license plates on cars that belong to WA residents so the State Patrol can bust them. They are particularly suspicious of owners of cars with OR license plates who use a PO Box as their home address.

Miulang