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This is a good report, except for her being so slow and the dumping more rain potential.
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007
AT 1800 UTC...UW-CIMMS ESTIMATED HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS UNDERGOING ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWEST SHEAR. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH IS COUNTERED BY HAMPERED OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE AS THIS SHEAR REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOSSIE HAS AN OPEN EYEWALL TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE WIND OF 90 KT AS OF 1600 UTC. AN 1800 UTC VORTEX MESSAGE LIMITS THIS SPEED TO THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. CI VALUES OF 4.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB AS WELL AS 5.0 FROM JTWC...77 KT AND 90 KT...SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WE GIVE FLOSSIE AN INITIAL STRENGTH OF 90 KT FOR THIS RUN.
TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SHARPLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AS EACH MODEL HANDLES THE DECLINE OF FLOSSIE DIFFERENTLY...BUT THE GUIDANCE MEAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ARC OF THE OLD TRACK...BUT AN INITIAL SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WAS NEEDED GIVEN RADAR-DERIVED INITIAL MOTION OF 299 DEGREES. THIS WILL TAKE FLOSSIE A BIT CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL MITIGATE THE EFFECT THIS CHANGE WILL HAVE ON THE BIG ISLAND. WE HAVE DECREASED THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADIUS TO 90 NM WITHIN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS BASED ON AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS RADIUS IS STILL LARGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND...PROMPTING CONTINUANCE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS FLOSSIE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO 9 KT AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS WELL. HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~
just drove down to honaunau and napoopoo beach. the boat ramp is closed and a county official is kepping people out of the water. however ther was a zodiac boat full of snorklers in the bay there right by two-step. the ocean is dead calm ...no wind but the overcast is building and to the south you can see some clouds stacking up....over at the wharf in napoopoo there was lotsa looky loos in rental cars and a few locals out kayaking the bay...also dead calm seas. the weather channel is broadcasting from south point and they interviewed some residents there. evidently that is the place to be as other beaches and access are closed. there seemed to be dozens of folk down there. the waves are 8-10 ft and the wind looked like it was 30mph or so......the guy they interviewed expects that the show will be spectacular as the day wears on...especially at high tide around 5pm......
the bigger the government the smaller the citizen.
You know with Flossie's effects extending northward you'd think the trades aren't blowing enough of the fringes away which makes me think...if the trades aren't blowing strong enough could Flossie's track move more in a northerly direction as a result?
Last edited by craigwatanabe; March 14, 2008, 09:22 AM.
Life is what you make of it...so please read the instructions carefully.
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