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She's started weakening in the past six hours in terms of "warmer cloud top temperatures" but why this makes her weaker and not stronger, I don't have the education to understand, not yet anyway. This is told in Advisory number 17 by NOAA.
There was a break in the eyewall to the East and I know any break in it sounds good cuz they totally lose that eye when they are dieing.
They say "it appears" that vertical shear is starting to affect the thing and I know that's good, the word shear is always good to hear about a hurricane.
I hope the weakening trend continues. The shear is a good thing as there is a high to the north of the state that is supposed to do that.
From the 11AM forecast:
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST OR ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
Winds still gusting near 135 mph, but now 5 mph less than the last report. A small, but good start... still not a trend and the hurricane remains very strong.
Let's see what happens at 5:00 PM when the next report is due.
Good points, Mel and hoo boy, waking up tomorrow I bet we're all on the 'net in record time. Caffeine can be made while the thing boots up nicely. What a difference a night's sleep can make with these things!
Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~
Quote: "HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES."
The projected path at the moment takes Flossie within 70 miles of the Big Island, so TSF winds are definitely in the BI's future if the track stays the same.
And an extremely minor course change would put full hurricane-force winds there.
The next 24 to 36 hours are critical, obviously. Wind shear can come and go, water temps fluctuate, wind speeds can fall -- or rise! --and the track is totally unpredictable. Any or all of those hanges can happen in mere minutes.
Every sane resident should follow the reports very very closely.
"The current track and intensity forecast may require watches for portions of the Hawaiian islands early Monday," the advisory says. "Everyone in the Hawaiian islands is urged to continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Flossie."
They'll set up watches and warnings as the storm gets closer.
The most recent satellite image at this link is a change from yesterday's forecast. The image shows predicted wind speeds (hurricane, tropical storm, tropical depression) and the bad news is that the hurricane indicators (in red) now extend past the Big Island, instead of stopping short of it as they showed yesterday.
She's started weakening in the past six hours in terms of "warmer cloud top temperatures" but why this makes her weaker and not stronger, I don't have the education to understand, not yet anyway.
Hurricanes are driven by heat differential - warm ocean, cool atmosphere. If the ocean cools down, or the atmosphere heats up, that reduces the amount of "food" for the monster.
here in captain cook and to the south in ocean view....we are getting nervous.....time to gather those emergency supplies and get ready for a big blow......hopefully it will be smaller than what is currently predicted....but the forecast and the county of hawaii civil defense messages are taking this quite serious......we will see where we are tomorrow when it comes to learning more about the likelyhood of this being bad.
pray!!!!!
the bigger the government the smaller the citizen.
here in captain cook and to the south in ocean view....we are getting nervous.....time to gather those emergency supplies and get ready for a big blow......hopefully it will be smaller than what is currently predicted....but the forecast and the county of hawaii civil defense messages are taking this quite serious......we will see where we are tomorrow when it comes to learning more about the likelyhood of this being bad.
pray!!!!!
Never take such a storm lightly. We are all holding the Big Island up to the light, that's for sure! Make that the entire state, in case Flossie has a chip on her shoulder for being given such a monniker.
Reading GeckoGeeks comments, I must say that lately, its been STILL HOT AS a DICKENS especially in daytime...summer time yet! Well, for the past last few hours ago, Flossie seemed to settle down as I didnt see too much intensity a while ago..and thats like about 1pm hst. today. So...I thought maybe the shearing is starting and everythings going to be ok...but NOOOOO...I come home about an hr ago...turn on my internet and what do I see??? BIG HUGE RED DOT and on the other satellite...bIg BLACK DOT!!!! I guess Flossie found some temperature change to feed on. As for shopping for needed essentials....LONGS DRUGS has their sunday ad up and got supplies on sales...flashlights, and other things...so I suggest that ALL US HTrs be on guard and dont piss of Flossie..cuz I think it already IS!!! Btw...cant recall but think about the other hurricane that hit us..esp Kauai...that baby gave a mean hook and instead of diverting itself away from the isle...the baby swung back with a real MEAN BLOW!!!
Click on this image of Hurricane Iniki's 1992 track to enlarge it. Note how Iniki started to hook southwest away from us, but then made a radical 90 degree turn to the right!!!
Anyone who looks at Flossie's current and predicted track and thinks we're safe... best think again.
EVERY media outlet should be showing this image as a warning.
Click on this image of Hurricane Iniki's 1992 track to enlarge it. Note how Iniki started to hook southwest away from us, but then made a radical 90 degree turn to the right!!!
Anyone who looks at Flossie's current and predicted track and thinks we're safe... best think again.
EVERY media outlet should be showing this image as a warning.
Shift happens.
It also looks like Iniki was much farther south on its original path than Flossie currently is. Is that correct?
The weather today in Waikiki was disturbingly nice. What a tease.
Gotta' make a run for some emergency preparedness supplies tomorrow.
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