Housing Bubble - Not Yet

[tutusue]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

[...]If you want to know why Hawaii is growing, you should screw a mirror to the ceiling in your bedroom.

Personally, I prefer a guy to a mirror and a bed to a ceiling. But, hey, whatever floats your boat!

[LikaNui]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

you should screw a mirror to the ceiling in your bedroom.

Already got one, complete with the sticker that says "Objects in mirror appear larger than real size."

[damontucker]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

According to this article... rents will be going up 5%.

"Apartment rents are expected to increase 5.3% this year - about double last year's increase - the National Association of Realtors says. That's the highest jump since 2000, when the Internet boom created lots of jobs for young adults out of college. In April, rising rents were largely to blame for a sharp jump in consumer inflation."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/200...xpectedtorise5

[CranBeree]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

can someone tell me why ....

i just looked at a 4br/2bath in aiea 1360 sq feet int/4011 sq feet ext
built in 1979 for 549,000.

why are the prices marketed so when its an old house? there are new structures being built that you can get for less than that.

who or what decided the prices on the houses going up or down???

[pzarquon]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

Location, location, location. Where in Aiea? I grew up in a relatively modest, older home in Pearlridge... but while it wasn't much on paper, the view of Pearl Harbor was fantastic. I still weep inside when I think of what that place must be worth now.

Sure, for the same price, you could get a brand new home... way the heck out in Waikele or Ewa, four feet from your neighbor's bathroom window, on a narrow street crammed with houses that look exactly the same. As they say, they don't build 'em like they used to.

I still browse the home listings in Hilo. The older ones will bring a lot of headaches, I know, but they still somehow appeal to me more than what's been coming up for the last decade or so.

[Palolo Joe]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

why are the prices marketed so when its an old house? there are new structures being built that you can get for less than that.

who or what decided the prices on the houses going up or down???

Location, location, location... and prices will only rise (or fall) to what the market can/will bear.

Check out what other houses in the same area have sold for. That will give you a better indication of how overvalued (or undervalued) the property you're looking at actually is.

Comparing Makakilo to Aiea is like apples to oranges... and that's without even taking into account improvements that might have been made to the property to increase its equity.

[Palolo Joe]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

That's what I get for going back and re-reading what I wrote... beat to the punch...

[CranBeree]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

i was looking at newtown estates. as of now we are living in aiea and i just absolutely love it 20-30 min to get to wherever and when i was working a 10 min commute..

i've lived in royal kunia and in ewa beach and worked in town. OMG the freaaaaakinnnnn traffic was horrendous!! esp during the bus strike! thinking maybe makakilo for a bigger house but but just i can't picture living that far. and thinking of how hot it gets out there. but i digress.....

its ridiculous to pay half a mil for a house that was built way back when!!! who/what the heck made the prices rise? for that amount you would have been able to afford a home in the nice places of kailua about 3-4 years ago.


my parents gave up their 4 br 2 bath home a cpl years ago for about 200,000 something..when the market was low...but crap i wish they kept it now...*sigh*

[kamuelakea]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

Copied This from Charles Hugh Smiths Blog. These are the reasons housing prices are increasing at rates inconsistent with incomes and rents. They have nothing to do with "baby boomers".

Truth in Advertising--HOW TO BUY A $450K Home for $750KZ!


I recently came across this ad in a major American newspaper and was struck by the "truth in advertising" which was apparently imposed on a typical real estate pitch aimed at the naive and greedy (as opposed to the experienced and greedy).

The ad went on to list "The cutting-edge secrets to buying real estate at 30% to 50% above market value:"

# Appoint a Federal Reserve which flooded the nation with virtually unlimited money supply even as it lowered interest rates to historic lows
# Lower lending standards to basically zero so even those with poor credit and no cash can buy a house with no money down and no documented history of financial discipline
# Enable investors to buy new condos and houses with maximum leverage so that 40% of all new homes are purchased as investments
# Lower lending reserves requirements to the lowest levels ever, so lenders need not be encumbered with onerous standards like having cash on hand to cover bad debts
# Enter into an unspoken agreement with our Asian trading partners in which our homeowners can borrow 105% the value of their homes to buy Asian-made consumer goods, and our trading partners will buy all our depreciating long bonds at low rates of return so mortgage rates stay low
# Keep wage increases down to basically zero so consumers count on re-financing their homes to pay for vacations, college, new cars and boats, etc.
# Enable a 10-fold expansion of mortgage-backed derivatives and various exotic financial instruments so that trillions of dollars in mortgages can be tranched, sliced and hedged, giving the financial markets the false impression that the risks have been lowered, even as they've actually increased to unprecedented levels
# Enlist an army of Wall Street and media cheerleaders to promote the notion that "this time it's different" and "housing never drops in value," lulling the unsuspecting into believing that the business cycle and the laws of supply and demand have been officially revoked
# Encourage builders to build up to 10 times the number of units which sell annually, insuring massive overbuilding (over-supply).
# Rig the inflation measurements (CPI, etc.) to hide the actual inflation rate (close to 8%)


Low and behold, all the conditions have been met, and it is indeed possible to buy houses for 50% above their market value.

Of course when inflation can no longer be cloaked, it will be too late to stop its further ascent--which insures mortgage rates will climb, bankrupting all those with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). The massive over-supply of investor-owned units is already raising inventories around the nation, and as this trickle gorws to a mighty flood, the foreclosures of the ARM-bankrupted will also hit the markets. As lenders are inundated with losses from risky loans gone bad (surprise, sub-prime borrowers are not good risks), they will no longer be able to lend money as their reserves will have to be rebuilt even as their losses multiply. Leverage will fall off a cliff as lending standards are belatedly raised, but alas, all this will be too little, too late; the over-supply has been built, the demand has been sated, and investor-owned properties will soon be on the market.

The cutting-edge secret to buying real estate at 30% to 50% below market value? It's this simple: wait a few years for the market to re-set valuations. Pretty simple, huh?

from: http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

[na alii]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

Location, location, location. Where in Aiea? I grew up in a relatively modest, older home in Pearlridge...

You went to Aiea High?

[na alii]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

i was looking at newtown estates.

My uncle bought his Newtown home brand new in 1976 for $75,000. I wonder what it's worth now?

[Pretender]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

My uncle bought his Newtown home brand new in 1976 for $75,000. I wonder what it's worth now?

Try a search for this property on zillow.com. It's good for a ballpark value. For something more accurate, ask your Realtor to do a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA).

[timkona]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

wait a few years for the market to re-set valuations.

a "few" always implies 3 or more....let's say its as many as 5 years.

2011 is not quite my prediction of 2015-2017, but I do agree that when the boomers are finished with their financial migrations based in real estate, then there will be a tremendous wake, like a large ship steaming through.

some say it will happen tomorrow. I say you need to be small in real estate by about 2013. If that means that today you bought the house that you hope to die in 24 years from now, then debt is not the issue.

You must realize that only the tip of the iceberg has started getting old in America. There are many people still to come in terms of making these types of retirement financial decisions.

I will tell you one thing. I would not want to hold any real estate in snowy-ass places like Cleveburg or Pittsfield. Those cold, rust belt communities are gonna have epic declines in values due to out-migration of old boomers who think each winter is colder than the one before it.

[Konaguy]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

Real estate market decline in West Hawaii ? There was interesting article
in WHT about this today. It goes to show that we are simply too dependent
on tourism,construction,and real estate here in Hawaii.

http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/artic...al/local03.txt

[Paul]

Re: Housing Bubble - Not Yet

Real estate market decline in West Hawaii ? There was interesting article
in WHT about this today. It goes to show that we are simply too dependent
on tourism,construction,and real estate here in Hawaii.

http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/artic...al/local03.txt

That's a very interesting and well written article. There's not a single mention of the word "demograhpics" in it. This is the first time I've seen people in the realestate business talk like this. They finally admit there is a bubble. This is the part I found most interesting. It seems some of us here are in denial.

He said the real estate market is influenced by radical emotional changes -- primarily fear, greed and denial. Any of these unpredictable factors have the potential to shift the market in any direction, he said.